2002 MARKET FORECASTS
It is NOT WHAT you know, but WHEN you know
© Henry Weingarten Last Updated:
Most of the following material has been serialized in our newsletter
WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
and our premium channels
. It will be updated publicly
at our 10th Annual
Astrology and Stock Market Seminar
May 17-19, 2002 in New York City.
Note:Hyper links that are prefaced with a S:, G: or P: arerestricted to
There are five primary celestial and terrestial phenomena affecting world
events and global markets in 2002:
- The Third and lastof
Saturn Pluto oppositions on May 26, 2002.
E-DAY: January 1, 2002, Euro Currency Launch.
QQQ December 2001 and May 31, 2002
MSCI, index changes.
The first of three Jupiter Neptune oppositions September11
[and Feb 16 and June 3 2003].
- December 4th TotalSolar
Big Investing Ideas
1. DOLLAR DECLINE ACCELERATING IN 2002/3
The long term secular US$ rally is over,
having topped with three peaks, one in May 2000, one 6 months
later and finally June 2001. If you liked $10 Oil,
you will love the Euro .88-.90! We expect to
see .93-1.01 over 18 months.
2. SATURN/PLUTO ENDS 2002
Our forecast for a global economic slowdown and fears of recession
were well founded. However, our WSNW Mantra since 911 has been: "There
is now light at the end of the tunnel as this aspect ends May 2002."
As for 911
, one of its effects was Saturn (sense of security) in opposition
(opposed by) Pluto (Terrorism).
3. JUPITER/NEPTUNE THEME: PREPARE TO PROSPER 2002/2003
Let the good time roll and will it be back to "What ME
worry?" The curent trend of more realistic stock valuation that began
with Jupiter/Saturn conjunction in 2000 MAY become lost with this new
The key event of 2001 was
. From a purely economic view, this horrible tragedy ironically
had positive implications for many market sectors ranging from security
and defense to construction. This is/was primarily due to the economic
stimulation and the relative unimportance for balancing the budget in2002.
Without 911, a budget deficiet would have happened as both individuals
and companies were underforming. Furthermore, it forced an early
capitulation, i.e. end of the Bear market, as stocks moved into stronger,
instititutional hands. Thus after the First Saturn-Pluto opposition, we
Now THERE IS LIGHT AT END OF THE TUNNEL Saturn-Opposition
Pluto ends May 2002!
INVESTORS: FALL 2002 markets will be HIGHER than today.
DIFFICULT PROGRESS: CLIMBING THE WALL OF WORRY
Like many others we see a strong second half economy for 2002 and
the markets. The question of how high is up, will depend on how low markets
go in the Winter and Spring of 2002. Will they retest Fall 2001 lows, Spring
2001 lows or even the October 98 lows?
Two short term positives for the markets are the longer term effects of
lower US interest rates (Don't Fight the Fed)
and the post 911 spending programs. There is a well known tendency
of markets to "climb the wall of worry" and we expect plenty
of this (worry) coming up. The cup is only half full as global
economies deal with unemployment and additional bankruptcies follow
The profits from the Fall 2001 market rally need to be protected
against future potential bear assaults. We advise against returning to past
excessive speculation as investor fear recedes. To quote a recent Citibank
ad: “Being filthy rich is so 1999.” Junk bond defaults, one
prime example, are at a post 1929 depression high and will climb yet higher
by Spring 2002. Still, the cup is half empty: stocks will perform better than
cash AND bonds in 2002.
The latest or11th Fed rate cut this year to 1.75% was NOT needed and will
only damage the US dollar. Any business that can’t make
money with 2% interest rates, won’t even at 0%. You either have access
to the capital markets or you don’t. The long struggle, aka economic recovery,
LM Ericsson statement accompanying its third quarter results saw the systems
market falling by 10% in 2002 as a worst case scenario
for internal planning purposes, rather than a forecast. Torbjorn Nilsson,
business strategy manager at Ericsson. "We expect further consolidation
amongst operators. The largest will become even larger."
–10% max and the BIG getting
BIGGER are two key themes for early 2002. The minor note
is the humbling of more former wunderkind stars ala Enron (ENE).
Global Stock markets in 2002/3
will be determined largely by answering four questions:
Q1: Who will energy prices help/hurt the most?
Q2: Who will the further US economic slowdown
hurt and help?
Q3: Will Investors re-evaluate P/E lower to traditional levels or higher
towards " new economy" levels?
Q4: Who will be helped/hurt the most by the lower US dollar?
Intermediate term, we expect interest rates to increase due to a lower
US dollar and eventual inflationary worries in 2002/3. One lurking potential
danger is that itmay become necessary for the FED to defend the US
dollar and that will NOT be the cause for a major US stock market rally
past DJIA 11,000.
Capital Preservation will no longer be as
important for global investors after early 2002. It will instead go
back to the future or time forgrowth. Then we expect a change in leadership
away from Value and back to Growth. However, we advise caution and recommend
an investmentstrategy paradigm of BUY and HOLD Growth stocks withat
least reasonable valuation based on current and future profits.
Remember, international money flows will no longer exclusively favor
the US, with Asia and Europe garnering future global interest.
HOW HIGH IS UP?
LOW IS LOW?
2002 TRADING RANGES
DJIA: 8,800 to 11,660
VALUE WITH GROWTH
While we expect some to hope for a
return to the "good ole days", we are not likely to see P/E of 100+
for many TMT stocks. Our advice is thesame
as for 2001:
Trade more (25% of portfolio) and take/protect
profits at 15%-25% profit points for non-core long term holdings.
INVESTORS SHOULD BUY AND HOLD STOCKS WINTER/SPRING
2002 THAT ARE:
1) Profitable companies,
2) P/E under 20 TMT (Technology,
Media, Telecommunications); less than 16-18 for others,
3) Undervalued by 10%
I GLOBAL INVESTING
BUY CANADA, GERMANY
ACCUMULATE ASIA & EUROPE
THE UNITED STATES
The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of
selected global markets:
EUROPE - Relative strength
gains in Euroland & Euro into 2002
Blue Chips [EWG] outperform.
- will benefit from the Euro rally. However, we suggest some
selling into strength as better global opportunities arise.
- Our view of the CITY continues to change for the better in 2002and
The ATG is a long term watch/accumulation ahead of the 2004 Olympics.
- ITALY - Prime Minister Berlusconi may become good for
business. We are watching.
- EU EXPANSION
countries, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Cyprus, Slovenia
and Estonia remain on Watch.
Note: WSNW subscribers should review our favorite
S: Dow Jones Stoxx 50
AMERICA - Traders paradise
- Long term investment
- Invest here for increasing prosperity
in 2002 and 2003! The Canadian Dollar is a great bargain and
will outperform the US Dollar in 2002-2003, as will manyCanadian
stocks. Quality midcaps are obvious US M&A targets.
- While certain international stocks e.g. CX, have periodically
performed well and continue to benefit from NAFTA, we preferto
wait until closer to the end of the US economic slowdownin
mid 2002. Unless a stock is likely to be a takeover targetlike
Banacci was by Citibank, YANQUIS STAY HOME!
STATES - Slightly overvalued versus global counterparts. We will buy
select undervalued and Dow Dogs midyear as trading buys. However, we think
many former investor favorites will disappoint. US Bonds
will be even less attractive as the year goes on. The US Dollar
remains a ticking time bomb: It is no longer as safe a haven with
new competition forthcoming from the EURO in 2002 and perhaps
even gold. However, since one can trade stocks here for 10-25%
appreciation/depreciation a day/week, this remains TRADERS HEAVEN.
- JAPAN - We were delighted
when our five year wait for Japan to break 12,222 was over last year.
We were then surprised to see it break 10,000! Nikkei is now a long
term buy to16,000 using the 2003-5 time horizon. We see value in buying
Japan whenever the Yen is weaker than 126 [Fair value ~122]. Naturally, we
prefer exporters that will benefit from cheap Yen, e.g. Sony (SNE),
Matsushita (MC) and Honda (HMC) are our three favorites. Energy efficiency
along with the cheap Yen will keep Honda (HMC) and Toyota (TM) strong global
leaders withstrong profits. JAPAN INC may become one of our favorite
2003 countries, especially if the Yen weakens to 130 and more. Our mantra
on JAPAN INC. is "You have Japaneseproducts in your home; why
don't you have Japanese stocks in yourportfolio?"
- HONG KONG/CHINA - 2008 Olympics notwithstanding,
the fact is that many of the mainland's industries are amess.
While China's horoscopes are no longer as "challenged" as
in 2001, we continue to recommend caution. Like other Asian economies,
Hong Kong is unlikely to be buoyed by surging US exports.Still, it
is worth considering if it retreats under 9800 again. Despite a
far better economy, we also remain reluctant to investin Taiwanese
markets. Note, Hong Kong, along with Singapore andMalaysia, will
loseout from MSCI changes, as most of the top 20 companies in
these countries have less than 50% float. Conversely,
Taiwan may benefit, but not enough to compensate for potential
"war like" conditions in the future.
- KOREA- Buy select, non-bankrupt, companies such as Samsung
Electronics (SSNGF). A MAJOR peace dividend is expected in late
- The most money is still to be made by insiders as
recent corruption scandals attest. However, for long term investors
we are now recommending some computer, telecom and pharmecuticals
- AUSTRALIA - We are mildly bullish for 2002/3, e.g. BHP
due to immiment Aussie dollar appreciation.
- NEW ZEALAND- Unless you wish to retire in this lovely country,
continue to slowly distribute NZ 40 2200 OB if you are there
for savvy investors ONLY .
- ISRAEL - Israel's technology sector is desirable given
its highly skilled labor force and favorable tax treatment. However,
it is often overvalued and bargains are hard to find.
Unfortunately, it is best to buy only when there is blood in the streets,
which was all too often in 2001. Buy export quality with
the TA 100 Index under 400.
- It is now time given the possibility of rule of law for some
of the better high risk/high reward opportunities
- BRAZIL - With crisis, comes
opportunity, especially for quality exporters, thanks
to the cheap Reais currency. As with most of South America, accumulate
on weakness only for appropriate multi-year long terminvestment
- ARGENTINA- A 2002 short term trading opportunity for smart money.
We continue to recommend avoiding most emerging markets
at least until Spring 2002.
Later in 2002, the global investing landscape may
be dramatically different. WSNW subscribers should periodically
S: AFUND GLOBAL 12
- for our favorite global blue chip long term investments.
Traders believe "Making money in the market
is all about Timing". The "Buy And Hold" climate we've
had in the US stock market is long PAST
HISTORY. Since 2000 it is now a "Market Timing"
and “Stock Picking” environment. Markets reward best stocks that
have Value AND Growth. However, market strategies will need to change as
we look forward to the last Saturn opposition to Pluto in May 2002, to be
replaced by a series of Jupiter-Neptune oppositions starting September 2002.
Short term corporate profits are likely to continue to disappoint on the
short side due to ruthless competition for much of the first half of 2002
Thereafter corporate profits for well managed and sufficiently capitalized
companies may rise dramatically!
Despite the fact that we do live in interesting times, short term
we repeat last year's mantra:
BORING IS GOOD and VALUE plus GROWTH IS BEST
and Trade for short term profit 15-25%
Old-line technology companies such as
Boeing (BA) IBM, Rockwell (ROK), Hitachi
(HIT) and United Technologies
(UTX) will be safer heavens than utilities, and generally outperform.
be finishing the final pass of Saturn opposite Pluto that began August
5, 2001 on May 26, 2002.
While bankruptcy attorneys and mortgage refinancing lenders will remain
in clover, look to companies that will benefit from an improving economy
in Q3 2002, rather than the current tough economic conditons.
withheld supply due to Oil "glut" from reduced demand as we forecast.
But this will change midyear as security and defense move off
center stage. Halleluiah!
1Q 2002 - 1.9%
- We WILL have a continuing economic slowdown, but
nota further decline until the Spring. Thereafter, we expect
GDPgrowth to resume to over 2%. If there is an official recession,it
is because the government statistics did not properly allow for 3Q2001
decline. If so, we will out of "recession" in 2Q 2002. However,public
enthusiasm to spend, spend, spend will be subdued in Q1 2002 untiljob
uncertainty is removed.
- Our GDP forecasts for 2002 follow:
2Q 2002 + 1.6%
3Q 2000 >+ 2 %
The big new paradigm will be the three passes
of Jupiter opposing Neptune beginning September 11, 2002 and ending June3,
2003. On 9/11/2002, we have predicted a 200 point rally to celebrate
the strength of the US resolve in the global war on terror.
Nasdaq is likely to both outperform AND underperform
the DJIA depending on which months you are looking,
i.e. more Traders Heaven.
May 26, 2002 will be a pivotal month marking
the beginning of the next market cycle.
Jupiter will oppose Neptune beginning
September 11, 2002 and ending June
3, 2003. Obviously this will be good news for both the drug
industry as well as for gaming stocks. Also
look to travel (cruises), natural gas, wind power, leisure
,media and entertainment sectors to outperform.
Jupiter going into Leo August 1 will also cosmically assist
the entertainment industry. Also expect solar energy and fuel
cells to begin to get more respect as they are targeted for mainstream
America in 2004. It is an open question whether it will be American companies
or foreign companies like Kyocera and Sharp that benefit most. President
Bush: are you listening?
The importance of the December 4th Solar Eclipse will bediscussed
in our midyear update to be first presented at our 10th annual
Astrology and Stock Market
seminar and then later posted on website.
This is followed by one pass of Jupiter/Uranus in August of
2003, by which time electronic companies e.g. MC,
SNE, Samsung and PHG will be in heaven thanks to mass
HDTV. Also around this time, interactive TV and Video on
demand will become widespread, obviously helping AOL and MSFT, but
others as well (tba). However, we will also see in 2003 Saturn
activating the US Sun.
December 2007: Jupiter will be conjunct Pluto. The low point
of the nodal cycle is reached 2008. This will be followed
by Jupiter conjunct Neptune
in 2009 and Jupiter conjunct Uranus in 2010.
Over time, there will be increased focus on
sector based rather than country based approaches
to global investing.
Our three favorite post millennium themes
remain: Hydrogen/Solar, Robotics, and Wind/Water
The old themes of Technology,
Communications and Health Care will still
Coverage for 2002 Relative Sector Weighting updates.
WSNW subscribers: please note we update our 7 favorite 2002 industry
sectors on our premium Silver posting area:
, S: ENERGY
, S: HEALTH CARE
, S: MINING
, S: REITS
, and S:TRAVEL
Additionally, 2002/3 favorites sectorsinclude:
- Exploration and Successor Energy
- Leisure & Travel (2nd half 2002)
- Media (2nd half 2002)
- Our four favorite aerospace companies
are EADS, BA. UTX and Bombadier (BBD.A-TO).
- * A clear money manager favorite, but
our SRI leanings did not incline us to buy this sector for clients.
This Saturn/Pluto theme may still be played with stocks ranging from
Checkpoint (CKP) retail anti-theft to Internet security RSA
Security (RSAS) and Checkpoint Software (CHKP) to LoJak (LOJN). Non-SRImanagers
can continue to play this theme with BF Goodrich (GR), ITT andRockwell
is "the education" president, this sector will out perform. We arehopeful.
entering Leo August 1, 2002 should help the entertainment sector. Obviously,
this includes a large variety of stocks. Electronic Games suchas
Activision (ATVI), THQ (THQI) is one way. The big four electronicscompanies,
PHG, MC Samsung, Sony are another. Select Media stocks areyet another
- Select Diversified Energy companies such as BP and Norsk Hydro
(NHY). Danish windmill manufacturers, Vestas Wind Energy Systems
(VWSYF) and NEG Micon (NEGMF), especially in 2003, and solar Astropower
(APWR) will offer more than 30% growth annually. Similarly,
Japanese companies such as Sharp and KYO are partial plays of the
solar sector. Fuel Cell companies should be watched even
though they will not be profitable ventures until 2004. We also continue
to look for opportunities to trading buy older energytechnology
companies after big dips, such as Sun, VLO, Parker Drilling(PKD), Sucor
(SU), BP, MIR and RD.
- While a lot of banks, finance and insurance companies
willsuffer from extensive personal and corporate loan defaulting, others withwell
managed risk portfolios will outperform due to plentiful cheap moneyfrom the
2002 bottom on. Favorites include Citibank (C), American Express(AXP),
Prudential (PRU) and Metlife (Met).
- We increasingly find GOLD attractive in 2002 and expect to see
it $310-$325. It is also a good patriotric US dollar hedge. We recommend
PDG short term and ABX or NEM as longer term for core holds in
- We will give non-subscribers our list of favorite biotechs
and drug stocks in our Midyear update.
- The number three beverage and fastest growing at
7% a year is Water. Big Euro food groups, Dannone [DA] and Nestle [NSRGY],
own the largest brands and remain conservatively profitable.However
niche players like Vermont Pure (VPS)and microcap ICBG are also worth watching
- WSNW subscribers please view
- Platinum WSNW subscribers pleaseview
Moon in Libra, my Stock Selection is both:
DOWN: country/currency, bourse/sector,
individual stock and
UP : strong astrological and/or fundamental/technical
I like to begin with one or more of the following 3 criteria:
A: CASH RICH, not stock rich (Survival
of the Fittest)
C: GOOD HOROSCOPE or in upcoming COSMIC
1) Jupiter in Leo
2) Jupiter Opposite Neptune
Please note our current favorite trading strategy has been buying pre
and post news pops due to companies slightly outperforming repeated earnings
downgrades. This Winter/Spring our favorite Investingstrategy will be buying
quality undervalued stocks that have just fallen out of bed, e.g. DYN, HAL
on bad news/sector association-our old fallen angel strategy.
BUYING FOR THE LONG TERM (May 2002 on) a
2/3 or 3/3 mixture of
Our first choice are cash rich global blue chips. These
are companies that can prosper by gaining market share and buying
"cheap" assets during an economic slowdown over small and midcaps.
These are companies that tough out the near term and become far stronger
in the long term. As in 2001, our game plan is to invest conservatively,
but due to recent high market volatility and increasingly compressed
market cycles, we now advise trading all accounts more actively-
an average of 25% of portfolio holdings. Intermediate and longer
term European (and Asian) stocks will NO longer rise and fall fully
in sync with US markets! This will happen more when the US dollar
is generally recognized to be in a secular decline.
1) BUYING CASH RICH LEADERS
2) UNDERVALUED AND UNLOVED
3) ASTROLOGICALLY FAVORED STOCKS AND SECTORS
Six selected Investing themes follow.
For more and updates,
may visit our AFUND
1. Give expected drop in
USdollar of 2-6%, select Country I-Shares or Webs) or Foreign Blue
2. We always prefer undervalued
stocks, especially if coupled with a yield greater than
the classic value buy signal of 5%, such as Utilities like
ConEd (ED) or Scottish Power (SPI), or the best named REIT WRI
(Weingarten Reality!).We also recommend stocks that are atleast 20%
undervalued like ASD or American Standard, which have an added bonus of
being potential M&A acquistion candidates. Currently our
favorites are out of favor stocks in the travel industry, e.g. MHX and
(EWN) : Euro strength Unilever (UL), Philips (PHG), Royal Dutch (RD)
and Ahold (AHO).
(EWG) : Euro strength - Deutsche Telecom (DT), Deutsche Bank (DTBKY)
(BTGGga.DE), SIEMENS (SI)and BASF
Yen weakness - Fujistu (FJTSY), Kyocera (KYO), Matsushita (MC),
Sony (SNE) and Honda (HMC)
- CANADA (EWJ): $CD strength - Inco (N), Placer Dome
(PDG), Sucor (SU), Celestica (CLS), and Sun Life (SLC).
- United Kingdom [EWU] : BP Amoco (BP), Cable
and Wireless (CWP), Elan (ELN), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Pearson (PRSNY)
and Vodafone [VOD].
S: AFUND GLOBAL 12
FAVORITE 2001 stock, i.e.hold/buy on an intermediate-long
term on a relative basis was IBM. We bought and sold it twice in 2001. It
will be so again in 2003, so we plan on buying again on any serious weakness.
We expect continued modest consolidation and performance of Dow
Stocks and Diamond Index (DIA) for most of 2002. Onceagain, most Blue
Chip stocks will still have to be traded, not "buy and
held" for much better than single digit returns in 2002. Two possible exceptions
are Dupont (DD) and InternationalPaper (IP). On weakness, we may also
buy American Express (AXP), Boeing(BA), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE)
and United Technology (UTX) if markets correct downward dramatically once
again early 2002.
MEDIA AND ELECTRONICS: PREPARE TO PROSPER
- Microsoft (MSFT)
while a cash machine is both over valued and poorly
managed. Negatives include the lack of exciting new products. We
advise selling on strong rallies.
will benefit from Jupiter in Leo. It isa buy under
18 this Spring.
- Johnson and Johnson continues to be rated an outperform.However,
unlike GE is has yet to retreat to a semblance of cosmic value.Until then,
we continue to admire it from afar.
These are our two favorite sectors to buy and hold into 2003.
Our Consumer Electronics choices are: SONY [SNE], SAMSUNG,
PHILIPS [PHG] and Matsushita or Panasonic [MC]
Four Media brands to accumulate on weakness are: AOL, Disney
(DIS), NY Times (NYT) and Yahoo (YHOO). All have strong potential growth
after Q1 2002, accompanied by increasing advertising revenues.
5. FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
Even before we became one of the first apple
dealers in NYC, we historically have liked betting
on emerging technologies. This we recommend
doing in a basket of stocks, and not paying too much of
apremium over value for longer term holding in contrast to
new related trading. WSNW subscribers can surf
P: FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
Our current three favorites sectors are:
APPLIED ROBOTICS: e.g. Int. Hi-Tech
Industries (IHITF)* , Robotic Vision (ROBV)
BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g Celsion (CLN),
Imclone Systems (IMCL) and Trimerius (TRMS).
SUCCESSOR ENERGY: e.g. Astropower (APWR) Nuvera (IPO:
NVRA) and ???
*6. AFUND CLIENTS
Business Astrologers know that
the best way to predict the future is to create
and with an obviously biased view,
I am doing my best to help create investor wealth
for client companies we now consult for, e.g.
International High Tech Industries
2, 1988 I have established a superior
primarily due to my knowledge
of financial astrology. While not perfect
as some critics would demand, my precision and
accuracy is appreciated by many professional traders
and investors. As more of our forecasting is
now private and contracted to money managers and institutional
investors, it is my intention to have other financial
astrologers and money managers contribute more on myweb
site in the future.
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