all saw what happened in October 2018 to the global stock
markets. We were
correct in our predictions !
October 2018 - there was a sharp correction in global
equity markets, led
by sharp declines in the US Equity markets and European equity
markets - as
predicted ! A lot of equity markets around the world tested
multi-year lows. Some indices while correcting reminded us of
for November and December 2018 remains unchanged as none of
fears have left the markets :
a) Interest Rate hikes by US Fed
b) China - USA Trade Issues. Iran sanctions.
Italian Banking crisis
might have a temporary pull back in global equity indices led
by ^DJIA and
^GDAXI but we will see fresh lows in almost all the major
equity indices in
November through December 2018. The spillover could be till
of now just start buying physical Gold. We could see a level
of US $ 1400.00
pto in the coming months.
Oil futures could see a sharp spike from the current US $
levels in the coming two months.
Investors as advised to stay away from equity markets for the next couple of months.
We were bearish on the global equity markets
including India. We still are bearish for global equity
markets till end December 2018. Emerging market equities and
currencies were hammered in September 2018.
We will now see equity markets in developed
economies get pounded in Q4 2018.
As predicted Brent Crude Oil tested US $ 84.00 pbbl level in September 2018. Our next level for Brent Gold price is US $ 90.00 pbbl within December 2018.
Indian Equity markets were down in September
2018. We predict NIFTY to test its 52 week low of 9850 in
October 2018. We also predict NIFTY to test 9500 or even 9000
level by December 2018. As I print this update NIFTY is
quoting at 10900.
Same hold true for BSE SENSEX. It will test its
52 week low of 31500 in October 2018. It will further slip to
28500 or even 27000 by December 2018. BSE SENSEX is trading at
36250 as I print this update.
INR has depreciated against the US $ from a level of 64.00 to a level of 73.61 as of today. All emerging market currencies have depreciated against the mighty US Dollar. We feel we will see a level of INR 75 to a US Dollar in October 2018.
US Dollar cannot keep rising against the world
currencies the way its has rallied since May 2018. US Budget
deficit and money printing will have its effect in Q4 of 2018.
US Dollar will correct in December 2018. In December it would
be the right time to buy physical Gold.
Investors are advised to limit their exposure to blue chip equities to around 25 % of their investible funds. Balance in Debt instruments and physical Gold.
Global Equity markets and Indian markets can
correct from the current levels by 15 to 20 % from date till
end December 2018. Limit your exposure to equities.
Invest in Debt instruments and physical Gold till
the equity markets bottom out in Dec 2018 or Jan 2019.
Investors might be thinking the reason why I did not update the India web page since Feb 2018 ? I was not clear as to why the global equity markets including India were still bullish since Feb 2018 to June 2018 with so much negative indicators around the world ? But markets have their own reasons to move up or down.
I am clear now for the journey forward from July 2018 through December 2018.
Global and Indian investors are seriously advised to prune their exposure to Equities and Mutual Funds to the tune of 75 % or even 90 %. Sit on cash or buy physical Gold Bars and keep under the bed in one's bedroom !
Please do consult your CFAs and act accordingly.
I am predicting a 25 to 30 % correction in Global and Indian Equities in July through December 2018. The correction could be worse in EU and Asian Markets. Brent Crude Oil could spike beyond US $ 84.00 pbbl due to geopolitics and Iran situation. There could be a massive public revolt in Iran which will be crushed by the clerics. About 3.00 million barrels a day supply of Crude Oil may be off the market due to - Iran, Venezuela, Libya and Iraq outages over the next six months through December 2018.
The global equities situation could be worst than in September 2008. The recovery in September 2008 through March 2009 was spectacular. This time the recovery will take about two and a half years and will be very painful for the bulls.
The reason of this global correction will be from a banking crisis in Greece, Italy and/or Spain. The trigger may not be from the US economy.
Banks in Italy and Spain are not in good health and may need bailouts. Greece will again be bankrupt for the third time since 2011. Venezuela is bankrupt. Argentina is on the verge of bankruptcy. Chinese and US exports will further dip. Correction possible in the prices of Agro Commodities - Soybeans, Wheat and Soybean Oil.
The best way forward has to be capital protection. Cash or physical Gold is the only savior for the impending/predicted correction.
Gold could jump above its
year high of $1380 and potentially beyond US $ 1450.00 or
even US $ 1650 pto during the next six months or so.
Global equity markets are on fire
including equity markets in India with BSE SENSEX crossing
36,000 levels and NIFTY crossing 11000 levels. We advise
equity investors to take profits home and start allocating 10
to 20 % of investible funds into physical Gold over a 10 to 15
year holding period. We could see levels of Gold at US $ 6000
to 9000 pto by 2035 to 2040.
First Bull Run in Gold was witnessed
when Prez Nixon scrapped Gold peg to the US Dollar under
advise of then Chairman US Fed Reserve on 15th August 1971.
Gold prices moved from US $ 35 pto US $ 850 pto in 1980. 1800%
plus returns !
Second Bull Run from 1999 to 2011
when prices touched US $ 1920 pto in September 2011. 666 %
Third 20 year Bull Run started in Gold as per our estimates in Dec 2015 and will run till 2040. We expect prices to be near US $ 6000 pto in 2035 and near 9000 pto in 2040. 570% returns expected in the 20 year period !!!
It will be close to a year that India
witnessed de-monetization ( 8th Nov 2016 ) and GST was rolled
out in India a few months back in 2017.
Both these events were historical in
the Indian economy since it's independence in 1947. Indian GDP
growth is highest in the world till date in 2017 inspite of some
initial hiccups due to slow implementation of GST and slightly
lower GDP forecast for 2018. For 2018 - also @ 5.80 % India will
be the fastest growing economy in the world. Chinese GDP figures
we dont trust. They are all stage managed !
BSE SENSEX and NIFTY traded near their
life time highs since the last six weeks. Today 30.10.2017 - BSE
SENSEX and NIFTY closed at their life time highs - 33266 and
10360. Since both the indices are in uncharted territories -
only extrapolation or trend analysis is the tool for prediction
in the next two months of calendar 2017. Trend lines indicate
further bullishness but sharp corrections are possible in bull
markets. In fact these corrections are a healthy signs.
We expect a sharp correction in the
global equity markets over the next eight weeks and Indian stock
market will also correct but with a lesser beta. On sharp
corrections we advise Indian investors to start buying the
following stocks for a period of two to three years perspective
1. LARSEN & TOUBRO
2. TATA POWER
3. ASTRA MICRO
These are military hardware related
stocks in the Indian scenario.
HAL will come out with its maiden IPO before 31.3.2018. We will advise accordingly.
We are back and apologize to investors that our prediction regarding Ms. Hillary Clinton was incorrect. We can only say - To err is human !
Indian stock markets are near their 52 week and lifetime highs since yesterday/today i.e. 3rd and 4th April 2017. BSE SENSEX tested 29927 and NIFTY tested 9245. Indian stock markets will be in bullish phase and benchmark indices may test new life time highs in April 2017. Time to take profits home at these life time levels !
We advise Indian investors to book profits in Indian Stocks as SW Indian Monsoon may be deficient in 2017 i.e. June to August 2017. There is this underlying risk in June 2017.
We are recommending a very old
favorite stock of ours for medium term investment - around a
year. The stock is a profit making Defense PSU stock -
BHARAT ELECTRONICS Ltd. Buy at dips around Rs. 150 to
Rs.153.00 levels. Currently trading at Rs. 160.00. This can
be a multi-bagger over the next three years. One year target
- Rs. 245.00.
We were incorrect in our prediction
regarding Hillary Clinton. Gold we were BINGO !!!
We said that Gold prices will dip below US $ 1190.00 pto and that at sub US $ 1200 levels - it is a good level to start buying physical Gold in small lots. Gold prices Spot NY tested a low of $ 1178.00 on 11/25/2916 and closed at $ 1178.00 pto.
Investors can start buying physical Gold at these levels of around $ 1180.00 till $ 1050.00 pto. One could see this level of $ 1050.00 in December 2016 or January 2017 - if Indian Government announces a total or partial ban on import of Gold Bars in order to control the deprecating Rupee parity with US Dollar.
The demonetization of INR 500.00 and INR 1000.00 denomination currency notes w.e.f. 11/9/2016 has rattled the Indian grey market economy. Slush money due to the tune of INR 14.20 trillion ( US $ 210.00 billion ) was in circulation in India as per GoI estimates as on 11/8/2016. With one master stroke - this money has become worthless paper. Huge blow to the un-accounted cash economy. Now with loop hole plugged by the GoI - Indian Banking system will be flush with funds and there will be huge surge in taxes collected by the GoI over the next six month or so. Interest rates will come down in India. Personal income tax rates may come down in India. Only 1.30 % of Indian population pay taxes. Imaging 30.00 % Indians start paying income tax in the next one or two years ? India could have a Budget Surplus !!!
Property prices will correct
seriously for another six months in India. Auto and White
Goods sectors will also correct In India. 2018 - a golden year
to buy property in India and 2017 - a golden time to buy Gold
Indian GDP will contract by 1.50 % (
annulaized basis ) over the next 6 months. Indian GDP will
start to pick up by April/May 2017 onwards.
Out of a population of 1200 million Indians - less than than 530 million Indians have access to banking sector. With the demonetization drive the Indian Government under the reformist Prime Minister Modi wants the Indian economy to be ridden of corruption and cash-based economy.
Banking sector in India will be
flushed with funds over the next months as the Indian economy
becomes more dependent on bank transfers and less cash
transactions. There will be pain in the economy for the next
six months as service providers and traders will be paid by
Cheques and Bank transfer and not cash. The new 500 and 2000
INR denomination currency notes will be in the banking system
in sufficient numbers over the next six months.
It will take Indian consumers about six months or so to change their purchasing habits from paying cash to paying by cards and over the internet/mobile phones/payment banks/payment apps etc
Indian equity markets also corrected
as predicted. BSE SENSEX and NIFTY are trading below their 200
DMAs - 26750 and 8130. I expect BSE SENSEX test January 2016
lows of 22500 and NIFTY 6800 over the next three to four
INR is trading at 68.70 to a USD. We
could see a level of 71.00 or even 72.00 over the next three
months - if FIIs pull out about US $ 50.00 to 60.00 billion
from the Indian equity markets. I feel these will be very good
levels to buy Indian equities for a two year time horizons. We
will mention sectors to buy into at these levels. Individual
stocks - we recommend to our clients in our paid
Indian Central Bank under the new Governor cut the key benchmark lending rate by 25 bpts to a record low of 6.25%. The Repo Rate now stands at 6.25% and the Reverse Repo rate is pegged at 7.25%. Indian stock markets cheered this development as cut in Repo rate will push Indian Banks to cut lending rates to Indian consumers in Home sector and Auto Sector borrowing. This is good news for Indian consumers who have access to banking !
is tension between India and Pakistan over international borders
and this could escalate. In view of this we advise Indian
investors to book profits in the stock markets and buy Gold at
sharp dips. Gold is now trading at US $ 1270.00 pto.
If US Fed indeed increase interest rates - one could see Gold correcting to sub US $ 1200.00 pto levels. At sub US $ 1200.00 pto levels - it is a good opportunity to start buying physical Gold in small lots.
We are predicting a historic win for Ms. Hillary Clinton as the US President in the forthcoming US Presidential elections. She will get 51.3 % vote and will be the first woman US President at 69 years of age.
are serious problems with the banking sector in EU. DB in
Germany now trades below Euro 10.00 per share. If DB collapses -
there will be chaos in the banking sector in EU and across the
Atlantic. This will be moment bigger than Lehman.
investors to prune their exposure to European equities due to
this banking sector chaos in EU which could snow ball. Gold is a
sure bet for the next 5 to 6 years.
Hold Gold in physical form outside the Banking system in all parts of the world.
The update is late as we were waiting for the trend to be clear for the Indian equity markets. As predicted GST Bill as passed by both houses of the Indian Parliament after much political debate and some concessions. Our prediction was BINGO !
We had predicted that BSE SENSEX would test 30,000 and NIFTY 10,000. BSE SENSEX is near 29,000 and NIFTY 9000. Our targets will be tested in October 2016.
We are bearish in the long term for Crude Oil even if Saudis find a new bed partner in Moscow.
Gold prices will be bullish in the near term.
markets have recovered to pre BREXIT event levels but British
Pound Sterling has been battered. Gold and Silver have rallied
smartly with latter clocking better percentage gains than the
former precious metal. Gold and Silver will rally further till
end of this year. Our December 2016 target for Gold is US $ 1450
equity markets will be on fire in July 2016 as the much delayed
GST Bill will be cleared by Parliament. BSE SENSEX should breach
30,000 level and NIFTY could break past 10,000 level in July.
For traders this is a good opportunity to buy front line
momentum stocks and make a quick buck.
Cheers to the Indian Equity markets for July 2016 !
BSE SENSEX closed today 3rd June 2016 at a bullish level of 27000 nearly an eight month high and so also did NIFTY at 8250. Indian equity markets from here on are contingent on the progress of SW Monsoon.
Since our last post
the RBI cut Repo Rates by another 25 bpts to 6.75 %. The
Indian economy grew at 7.60 % in the fiscal 2015-16 – highest
annual GDP growth rate. The fiscal situation was also in
control with fiscal deficit at INR 5320.00 ( US $ 79.40
billion ). The next trigger for the Indian economy and equity
markets is the position of the SW Monsoon. A normal SW Monsoon
is bull trigger for the economy and the equity markets. FIIs
will pump in money in July and August 2016 – if the Indian SW
Monsoon is normal or above normal.
We still stick to
our prediction that global markets will be bearish in 2016 as
^SSE COMPOSITE in Shanghai will test 2000. Chinese economy is
sluggish and huge amount of stimuli by PBoC has had little
impact on the economy. Brazil continues to contract. Japan is
in “de-flation”. USA and EU are growing at below 2.50 % per
Gold is the best bet as an investment class for the balance period of calendar 2016.
BRENT Crude Oil
could at best US $ 60.00 pbbl.
are not posting a detailed report for April 2016. We are waiting
for ^SSE COMPOSITE Index in Shanghai, China to test 2100 or
2000. We predicted that we will see these levels for ^SSE
COMPOSITE in Shanghai in Q1 2016, but we only saw a low level of
2656 in January 2016.
COMPOSITE Index closed today 3/31/2016 at 3000. We still stick
to our prediction that ^SSE COMP will test 2100 or lower at 2000
in April or May 2016
BSE SENSEX closed today 3/2/2106
at 24243 down marginally from the last reference close of 24455. NIFTY also closed
marginally lower at 7369 against the last reference close of
SSE COMP closed today at
2850. We have predicted a level of 2100 or 2000 for ^SSE
COMPOSITE WITHIN Q1 2016. Let us see how does this index move
in the month of March 2016 and ho close are we to our
Union Budget was presented in India on 2/29/2016. Union Budget was pro-farmer and pro-poor man’ budget with high allocation to the sagging Agriculture Sector in India.
We had predicted that global equity markets will test further lows in February 2016 and we were accurate. The following indices tested fresh 52 week lows in the month of February 2016.
1. ^N225 15429
2. ^BSESN 22525
3. ^NSEI 6823
4. FCHI 3951
5. DAX 8773
6. FTSE 5596
7. NASDAQ 4213
8. FTSEMIB 15849
9. IBEX 7862
10. AXJO 4707
These indices after testing their fresh 52 weeks lows rebounded but the rally may not sustain because of the situation in China and low Crude Oil prices.
Gold is bullish as long
as it trades above US $ 1140.00. Spot Gold NY closed today at
$1239.00 pto. The prices tested a high of $ 1260.00 pto in
WTI Crude oil is trading
near a very critical support level of US $ 34.00 pbbl. Last
trade at CME was at US $ 34.80 pbbl for April contract.
If prices of WTI Crude Oil fall back to the recent lows of
about US $ 26.00 pbbl - then expect global equities to test
further lows. Even lower than February 2016 and August 2015
lows. If WTI Crude can sustain US $ 34.00 pbbl level - then it
can rise to US $ 38.00 per bbl. Geopolitical - If there is war
in the Middle East - Iran and Saudi conflict then prices can
zoom to US $ 60.00 pbbl.
China will spook the
global equity markets and Gold prices will zoom to $ 1290.00
to 1320.00 pto. Keep a very close on the Chinese equity
markets and price of Crude Oil.
repeat the perils in the equity markets are linked to economic
situation in China and Crude Oil prices. Investors to keep their
powder dry and buy in deep cuts.
We had mentioned in
our last update that Chinese equity markets will correct and
will play a spoil sport for bulls. ^SSE COMPOSITE corrected from
2900 levels as of 15th January 2016 to test a fresh 52 week low
of 2656 as of today 2/1/2016 ( near 10 % correction ). FIIs have
pulled out approx. US $ 600 billion since the past six months
and the trend continues the same way.
PBoC has devalued
the Yuan further and it is felt that they will let it devalue to
a level of 7.00 Yuan to a US Dollar. The Chinese banks still are
struggling with NPAs. The next support levels to watch for ^SSE
COMPOSITE are : S1
2250 S2 2050 S3 2000
We have mentioned in
our last update that we predict a level of 2000 for ^SSE
COMPOSITE. This level will create a chaos in global equity
markets with a sharp cut.
advised to keep a very close watch on the extremely volatile
^SSE COMPOSITE Index and plan their investment strategy.
Gold was bullish and tested a high of US $ 1130.00 pto NY SPOT on 2/1/2016. Gold will be extremely bullish if it trades above its 200 DMA of US $ 1140.00 pto. Investors can buy Gold if it sustains US $ 1142.00 pto for two weeks or so.
We wish all our investors, associates and partners in India and around the globe a prosperous and profitable 2016 ! This December 2015 post was skipped as we were waiting to see the impact of interest rate hike by US Fed on 16th December 2016. Interest rate hike by US Fed @ 25 bpts had no impact on the US and global financial markets.
January 2016 is delayed as we waiting for the start of correction in global equities. The large correction we were anticipating in Q4 2015 is in fact underway as we post this update. Most equity indices around the globe are near their 52 week lows and a few are now in bear territory as they trade below their 52 week lows.
BSE SENSEX closed today Friday - 1/15/2016 at 24455 down 6.50 % from the last reference close of 26155. NIFTY closed at 7427 breaking the September 2015 low of 7546. We are bearish on Indian equities except Sugar stocks for Q1 2016.
^DJIA, NASDAQ and major European indices are also in the correction mode. They will correct further and re-test lows of August/September 2015.
Crude Oil prices tested 12 year low today. WTI March Futures 2016 tested US $ 29.13 pbbl and BRENT March 2016 Futures tested a low of US $ 29.72 pbbl. This is not a good news for global financial markets and economies. This level of crude over-supply shows a deep malaise in world economic system. Brazil is having a negative GDP growth. Resource based export economies – Russia, Australia, Latin America, Africa and GCC are all having budget deficits. Commodity indices are at record lows with levels close to the year 1991. More pain to come in 2016.
China will spoil the party and the undergoing correction will cause further pain with our target of ^SSE COMP at around 2000 for Q1 2016. ^SSE COMP closed on 1/15/2016 in bear territory at 2884.
A stronger US Dollar may mitigate losses in ^DJIA but this leads to further lower prices of commodities and also Gold. We advise investors to allocate 15 % of funds to Gold, 15 % to Equities and balance in pure debt funds. When the global equity markets bottom out in Q1 ( we will advise ) – investors should re-enter the equity markets.
We advise investors to stay away from investment in Gold till further advise.
We are not publishing a detailed post
for November 2015 as we expect a correction in global equities
lead by ^DJIA in Q4 2015. This was mentioned in our last
The trigger would be the US Debt ceiling - which will need to be hiked by US Congress as we feel that in November or December 2015 - US Fed will be "out of funds". US Fed will request US Congress to raise the Debt ceiling from the current cap of US $ 18.10 trillion.
US Fed would request the US Lawmakers
to hike the Debt ceiling from US $ 18.10 trillion to US $
20.00 trillion till 2020. This is our estimate.
If this Debt ceiling request is indeed made to the US Congress with Q4 2015 - we will witness a serious correction in global equities.
Economic activity is further slowing
down in China and India. All other countries are also having
GDP growth issues. Gold prices have again been hammered down
by speculators on the back of strong US Dollar.
We still stick to our prediction that
US Debt ceiling will be hiked in November or December 2015.
Hence we are bearish on global equity markets including India.
Gold may spike if what we have predicted does happen within Q4
BSE SENSEX closed today on 31st August 2015 at 26283 down 6.52 % from the last month’s reference close of 28115. BSE SENSEX closed below its 200 DMA of 27680. This is bearish signal for the near future. NIFTY closed today at 7971 down about 6.00 % from last month’s reference close.
The levels to watch for BSE SENSEX and NIFTY are as follows :
R1 26680 R2 27180 R3 27680
S1 25800 S2 25000
R1 7810 R2 8080 R3 8230
S1 7800 S2 7580
We were correct in our predictions that Global Equities including Indian Equities will be bearish in the month of August 2015. China and Brazil spoilt the party !
We are reproducing excerpts from our 5th October 2007 – webpage as under :
I am advising investors to exit from the equities. Investors who hold blue chips for “keeps” can sell the same in the ‘F & O’ window so as to avoid erosion of capital. Invest in Gold and/or sit on cash
WE ARE AGAIN ADVISING GLOBAL (INCL – INDIA ) INVESTORS WELL IN ADVANCE THAT THEY SHOULD TRIM THEIR EXPOSURE TO EQUITIES TO AS LOW AS 10.00 % to 15.00 % AND BALANCE SIT TIGHT ON CASH. WE PREDICT A MAJOR CRASH IN GLOBAL EQUITIES IN A PERIOD FROM SEPTEMBER THOUGH DECEMBER 2015.
We predicted a major correction in global equity markets on 5th October 2007 for 2008 and advised investors much in advance. We advised investors to invest in Gold or sit tight on cash. We all know global equity markets corrected by about 25 % in January 2008. Then the markets corrected from July 2008 to September 2008 ( Lehman Bros crisis )
We were also partially correct on Greece political scenario. PM Tsipras resigned after getting Euro 86.00 billion bail out from ECB and EU. IMF did not participate in the third bail out as it feels Greek Debt is unsustainable. There is a political chaos in Athens with no Govt in place till 20th September 2015 when there will be fresh elections. FITCH feels that with the new Govt without Tsipras as PM – what is the guarantee that the new Govt will honour the terms of the Euro 86 billion bail out ? Very difficult to answer this query from FITCH ?
The monthly high for BSE SENSEX and NIFTY were 28316 and 8592 respectively. On 24th August 2015 global equities markets crashed including India. Traders called it a “BLACK MONDAY”. BSE SENSEX tested a intraday low of 25625 and NIFTY tested a low of 7769. At close on 8/24/2015 BSE SENSEX had lost whopping 1624 pts and NIFTY lost 490 pts. SENSEX and NIFTY fell by nearly 5.90 % each at close. It was the worst daily fall in BSE SENSEX and NIFTY since 2008.
Intra day lows on 8/24/2015 and 8/25 for some important indices were as follows :
^N225 = 17747
^HSI = 20,865
CAC 40 = 4230
DAX = 9338
FTSE = 5768
MIB ITALY = 20,158
IBEX SPAIN = 9502
^DJIA = 15,379
S & P 500 = 1867
BSE SENSEX = 25298
NIFTY 50 = 7667
^SSE COMP = 2851
The first trigger for correction in the global markets was Chinese Equity markets. This had worldwide impact. Chinese Govt could not stop the crash in the Chinese equity markets even with direct purchase of equities through PBoC and Pension Funds. The latter is hara-kiri as per our analysis. In mid August PBoC stunned the world by Devaluing Yuan – three times against the US Dollar to fix the peg at 6.3306. The PBoC devalued the Yuan by 4.50% against the US Dollar in three consecutive days. There was a global impact on currencies and commodities including Crude Oil as they further corrected to new lows. The US Dollar soared in August 2015.
^SSE COMP lost another 8.49 % on 8/24/2015 at close- this was the single largest daily fall in ^SSE COMP in its history – to close down by 8.49 %. Black Monday – 24th August 2015. Again ^ SSE COMP closed on 8/25/2015 at 2965 down 7.63 %. There was a panic in China and global equity and commodity markets –serious cuts were witnessed. Details of levels of some important global equity indices testing their multi-year lows is as per above. PBoC panicked to calm down Chinese Equity markets.
Even with the devaluation of Yuan - the ^SSE COMPOSITE was not buoyant. ^SSE COMP breached the important 3000 level and tested an intraday low of - 2851. The PBoC swung into action on 8/27/2015 and announced – cut in interest rate for one year tenure, cut in RR ratio and announced liquidity induction of US $ 200.00 billion (equivalent Yuan ) through two main Chinese Banks. There was calm at the Shanghai and Shenzhen equity markets today as ^SSE COMP closed today at 3206 after recovering from a whopping monthly low of 2851.
authorities may let CNY slip to these levels
of 6.45 to 6.66 to a USD. The might US $ moved
up almost against all currencies in the world
specially currencies of EMs.
On Black Monday (8/24/2015) ^DJIA also tested an intraday low of 15379 – down whopping 1081 pts on 8/24/205, but recovered to close today at 16528 (down 3.94 % ). S & P 500 also corrected to a low of 1867 but recovered to close was 1893 (down 5.48%). NASDAQ COMP tested an intraday low of 4292 but recovered to close at 4526 (down 3.82%).
investors pulled out US $ 190.00 billion in
the last 7 weeks from China, primarily from
the Equity markets. US $ 90.00 billion were
pulled out in July 2015 and in three week
July 2015 – US $ 100.00 billion have been
pulled out by the FIIs. They are a bit
disturbed over authenticity of Chinese data
especially on the annual GDP growth figures.
China announced its GDP growth for Q2 2105 at
7.5 % but global economists feel that China is
growing only at 4.00 to 5.00 % only. Plus the
devaluation of Yuan gives an indication of
pressures in China.
major European Equity markets fell by about
5.00 % at close ( CAC, DAX and FTSE ) on
8/24/2015. Europe STOXX was down by 7.33 %.
These indices recovered at close today.
Athens opened for trading on 8/4/2015 and the
index crashed to a new decade low of 615
and was down 22.93 % at the opening of trade
after a five week break till the close of the
trading hours. This was the biggest daily fall
in GD.AT after Greece became a member of EEC.
GD.AT corrected again on 8/24/2015 by 10.67 %
to a multi year low of -568 but
recovered to close at 624 today.
South African Rand crashed to 13.80 to a USD on 8/24/2015. Rand was worst performing currency in EMs after Brazilian Real. Brazilian Real was hit today to test a low of 3.6823 level against the US Dollar -which is a multi year low. Brazil is now officially in recession. There is a threat to its Sovereign Bond rating be cut to junk status by global rating agencies as Brazil faces a tough fiscal imbalance. Plus there is the China effect also in play – as Brazil exports iron ore and other metal ores to China. Chinese imports are down as its economy is slowing down.
tested to a low of 66.7325 of closed at 66.645
on 8/21/2015. This is fresh one year low for
the Indian rupee. INR recovered to close today
Gold moved up to USD 1171.10 pto at NY Spot on 8/24/2015. This was a 5 week high. Gold closed today at US $ 1135.40 up 3.58 % from the last month’s reference close of US $ 1096.20 pto. We remain bearish for Gold in September. Unless Gold starts to trade above US $ 1183.00 pto it will be bearish. Hence Gold should be bought only is it sustains US $ 1183.00 pto
Crude Oil prices corrected about 27.00 % in August 2015.
ENT Crude Oil February 2015 futures tested a six year low of $ 45.19 pbbl on 1/13/2015 at London ICE – lowest since April 2009. October 2015 futures tested a low of $ 42.23 at ICE on 8/24/2015. BRENT can test a level of US $ 40.00 pbbl in the next few months. BRENT October futures closed today at 53.97 pbbl
WTI Crude Oil April 2015 futures tested
a six year low of $ 42.51 pbbl on
3/18/2015. This was the first time since April
2009 that WTI Crude Oil futures were trading
at levels of below $ 50.00 pbbl. March 2015
levels were breached in August 2015. October
2015 futures tested a low of $ 37.75 ppbl
at CME on 8/24/2015. A fresh 6 year low. WTI
and BRENT have fallen for 8 straight weeks in
the international markets – at CME and ICE
respectively. This is biggest losing streak
since 1986. WTI can test a level of US $
35.00 pbbl in the next few months. October
2015 futures closed today at 47.30 pbbl
corporate sector had one of its worst years in
the fiscal year that ended in March.
Industrial output grew by a modest 3.2%
year-on-year in the quarter through June 30
compared with 4.5% in the same period last
year. GDP data for the quarter is due Aug. 31,
but on Aug. 17, Moody’s Investors Service
reduced its GDP growth forecast for the
current fiscal year to 7% from 7.5%, citing a
near 10 % deficient SW Monsoon season and
slowing momentum for reform. The Indian Govt
announced its GDP growth figures Q1 FY2016 at
We are again cautioning global investors to take profits home in equities or even book losses in equities and sit on cash. There will be a “tsunami” in the global equities and commodity markets in September through December 2015. The above lows mentioned in the update will be breached and one will see much lower levels. We will advise accordingly when to start buying equities.
are advised to square their long positions on
all commodities including Gold. We will advise
via special updates when to start buying
equity markets (including India) will correct
savagely from 1st
September 2015 to 14th September 2015 and so
also commodities. Hard Commodities are already
near their six or seven years low. Gold may
rally in the said period but will again be
hammered down by global bear cartel.
PLEASE BE PREPARED TO SEE ANOTHER BLACK MONDAY ON 14th SEPTEMBER 2015. TRADERS TO TAKE POSITIONS ACCORDINGLY ON THE FORTH COMING TSUNAMI.
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