2000 MARKET FORECASTS

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2000/2001 MARKET FORECASTS (5/24)
 has been posted on our premium subscriber area.  We will be posted this publicly here (to non subscribers) later in June.

 

Some of the following material has been serialized in our newsletter WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK and our premium channels.  It will be updated and presented publicly at our 8th Annual Astrology and Stock Market Seminar May 18, 2000 in New York City.
Note: While most links below are free to the public, some are restricted to WSNW Subscribers.

There are 4 primary phenomena affecting world events and global markets in 2000:

At first glance, 2000 may not be "that bad" astrologically and a case can be made for positive Q1.  As of today, we are still waiting for the results of previous cosmic influences to kick in.  Years ago, I was asked when the stock market would DEFINITELY correct.  My answer was: the insanity "HAD TO END" between the July 1999 Eclipse and the May 2000 Jupiter/Saturn conjunction."  Can the market be so manic that it will continue to refuse to go down by then?  Is it finally different this time? I continue not to believe so.

For many stocks, their Bull market has been over for some time [If a tree falls in the forest and no one is present, did it make a sound?] The US market has been in a broad decline since April 1998.  Leave out the top performing 50-100 stocks (out of 7000), and the picture is worse. This is mirroring wealth redistribution patterns which are increasingly being skewed to the very wealthy. Fundamentally, many, if not most, companies [stocks] may do poorly in the first half of 2000.

Inflation is NOT dead. Real labor costs should (and rightly so) increase more than 4% in 2000. Asset (stocks and real estate) inflation is a serious threat ready to potentially spill over into premium products and services, the Internet and NASDAQ globalization notwithstanding. It is an open question whether a "soft" landing can be engineered or whether a "hard" crash is inevitable sooner or later.  The official Astrologers Fund trading forecast for 12/31/1999 was 7001.67. We are extending that up to May 2000.  Y2K fears have been alleviated (so far) by a wise not-to-panic public campaign. We believe some negative effects will be felt: up to 1000 DJIA points worth.  But if it turns out to be more Y2K hype than reality, can a hard landing still be avoided?  Two eclipses and Jupiter/Saturn are together worth at least another 1000 points. Alan Greenspan is good for at least a .50 rise in US interest rates (perhaps more) and that alone should be worth more than 1000 DJIA points. So the question is: Will money flows and investor greed, stupidity and insanity keep the market enough above 10,000 to prevent a panic flight to reality?  We do live in interesting times.

Will corporate earnings rise or fall next year?  Many companies are facing strong downward price pressures ironically, due in part to new ebusiness initiatives. Fundamentally, for the 2000 stock market to rise substantially above 1999 highs, it will require the future permission of some social security funds into the stock market.  However, this could negatively affect bonds and interest rates.  Therefore, I continue to recommend Capital Preservation as the number one priority for global investors in the first half of 2000.  A possible issue later this year could be how to rationally approach stock market investing IF the US market does NOT correct by May.  Hopefully, this will NOT be the subject of our May 2000 update.

I GLOBAL INVESTING

INVEST IN CANADA & HOLLAND
TRADE THE UNITED STATES
BARGAIN HUNT ELSEWHERE

 GLOBAL 2000 MODEL PORTFOLIO WEIGHTING:
EUROPE: 40% [Holland 20%]  US: 25%  CANADA: 15%  ASIA: 20%

The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of selected global markets:

EUROPE - Relative strength in North Euroland & Euro strengthening by 2002


NORTH AMERICA - Traders paradise


ASIA/PACIFIC - Long term investment opportunities

II TIMING
Traders believe "Making money in the market is all about Timing". The "Buy And Hold" climate we've had in the US stock market is PAST HISTORY.  It is slowly but surely giving way to a "Market Timing" and “Stock Picking” environment.  As we approach May 2000, the new planetary theme becomes Jupiter/Saturn. This once every 20 year pairing of the two major planets will reward Value at least as much as Growth, and markets will begin to show more traditional common sense valuations.

Despite slightly higher interest rates on the horizon over the next year, real assets are desirable and may outperform financial assets. In any case, our mantra is: BORING IS GOOD.
Basic industries such as Construction, Energy, Real Estate and Utilities are safe haven favorites. But if you are bored, you will also want to be entertained. Track entertainment, e.g. DIS and TWX, and media stocks such as NYT and TRB, as they will be among the first to recover from any stock market correction.  A European conglomerate stock like Vivendi (VVDIY) could be ideal being based in Utilities, Communications AND entertainment. Think in terms of tangibles. If you are a very aggressive investor and have high risk tolerance, some commodities, along with stocks, bonds and cash may be appropriate.

There are two cosmic markers finishing early 2000: the third and finals passes of Jupiter Neptune (March 16) and Saturn Square Uranus (May 13th).

The total lunar eclipse over Europe and America on January 21, 2000 may trigger a "defining moment" for some the world's major markets. Astrologically it is in some ways similar to the September 1997 total lunar eclipse all over Asia that helped trigger the Asian wide Crisis. This, Y2K or the third pass of Saturn/Uranus could be the master timer to end Internut mania.
III SECTORS
My new three favorite post millennium themes are: Hydrogen/Solar, Robotics, and Wind/Water.
The old themes of Technology, Communications and Health Care will still matter of course.
See Sector Coverage for 2000 Relative Sector Weighting updates. Our 2000 favorites are: We recommend extremely high cash positions for the first half of 2000.  We believe there will be at least one more US interest rate hike early next year, so we are relatively cautious to negative on US Bonds for the First Quarter 2000. Thereafter we recommend some accumulation, but European long term foreign investors may need to hedge periodic US Dollar under performance in 2000-2002. We continue to overweight natural resources (Gold) and since December 1999 high yielding REIT's.
IV STOCKS
Having my Moon in Libra, my Stock Selection is both:
TOP DOWN: country/currency, bourse/sector, individual stock and
BOTTOM UP: strong astrological and/or fundamental/technical indications.

I begin with one or more of the following 4 criteria:
A. FALLEN ANGELS: 90% from 52 week HIGH or near 2 year LOW
B. CASH RICH, not stock rich (Survival of the Fittest)
C. UNDERVALUED using Business Appraisal methodology e.g. Morningstar
D. GOOD HOROSCOPE or in upcoming COSMIC SECTOR Theme:
    1) Jupiter/Saturn conjunction
    2) Jupiter/Pluto opposition (late 2000)

FAVORITE 2000 STRATEGY HEDGING:
BUYING STRONG STOCKS/MARKETS and SELLING WEAK STOCKS/MARKETS

In general, we will be looking more to the small and midcaps than blue chips for the first part of the year.  Later in the year, our game plan is the reverse.  As in 1999, we are being rather conservative in our portfolio projections for the next six months.
Five selected themes follow. For more and updates, visit the AFUND premium channels.

1. As the Netherlands is our favorite 2000 country, you may wish to accumulate at least their top 5 stocks in 1999. The Netherlands is the single best European country to prosper in a borderless Euroland.  This is due to both historic reasons AND the horoscope of the Dutch Stock Exchange as well as the individual charts of Phillips, Amro, Unilever etc.

2. We always like undervalued stocks trading at more than 50% discount such as December 1999's Stock of the Month Pick  Service Corp [SRV], selected REITs and construction sector stocks into 2001.  We prefer high yielding {>8%) Reits such as SOVRAN SELF STORAGE (SSS) > 12%  and what REIT has more class than my namesake Weingarten Realty (WRI)? Today it is a hold and a buy on general market pullback. Accumulate Kubota (KUB) and International Hi-Tech Industries (IHITF).

3. Until Gold reaches our target of price $378, we continue to be relatively bullish on precious metals in 2000 and 2001. Until Gold is above $350, we continue to prefer the majors: Barrick Gold (ABX) and Homestake (HM).  Defensive money managers will continue accumulating energy stocks for the long term. Our four top picks are Shell (RD), Sunoco (Sun), Schlumberger (SLB) and Transocean (RIG)..

4. DJIA FAVORITE DIJA 2000 STOCK IS IBM. We also like intermediate-long term on a relative basis, Boeing (BA), Disney (DIS), General Motors (GM) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
HOWEVER - Remember 1929 AND review the lesson of RCP - Rockefeller Properties:
no matter how good the buildings (stocks) are, don't overpay!

5. AFUND CLIENTS
Business Astrologers know that the best way to predict the future is to create it.
With strong disclaimers and with an obviously biased view, I am doing by best to help create investor wealth for companies we now consult for, including:

Since May 2, 1988 I have established a superior forecasting record, primarily due to my knowledge of financial astrology. While not perfect as some critics would demand, my precision and accuracy is appreciated by many professional traders and investors.  As more of our forecasting is now private and contracted to money managers and institutional investors, it is my intention to have other financial astrologers and money managers contribute more on my web site in the future.
Henry Weingarten
(c) 2000 The Astrologers Fund. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, except for brief passages quoted for review without the prior written permission of the publisher.
ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR LICENSED FINANCIAL PLANNER OR BROKER BEFORE BUYING OR SELLING ON THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE ASTROLOGERS FUND.
DISCLAIMER: PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR PROFITABLE TRADING RESULTS.
The Astrologers Fund Accepts No Liability Whatsoever For Any Loss Arising from Any Use Of Its Report Or It's Contents. The Astrologers Fund Or Its Clients Usually Holds Positions In The Stocks and/or Market Instruments Mentioned And May Buy Or Sell At Any Time Without Notice. This Information Is In No Way A Representation To Buy Or Sell Securities, Bonds, Options Or Futures.
 
1999 Market Forecast
1998 Market Forecast
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