2001/2 MARKET FORECASTS

FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY:
It is NOT WHAT you know, but WHEN you know it.

© Henry Weingarten Last Updated:

Much of the following material has been serialized in our newsletter WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK and our premium channels.  It was updated publicly at our 9th Annual Astrology and Stock Market Seminar May 17, 2001 in NewYork City.    Note: Hyper links that are prefaced with a S:, G: or P: are restricted to WSNW  Subscribers.       

There are 5 primary celestial and terrestial phenomena affecting world events and global markets in 2001/2:


" The U.S. needs to speed up its tax cuts, the European Union should lower interest rates and Japan must overhaul its banks to head off a global economic slump. There is no need to panic, no need to be overly pessimistic. pre-emptive early policy  responses from the U.S., Japan and Europe are needed. We are indeed now  living in a globalized world, where the slowing down is absolutely  interconnected."
   - Horst Koehler, manager director, IMF
   HW: We agree about Europe and Japan, but as for the US, this is not the  best policy. We need more R&D corporate investment tax breaks, especially  in successor energy, and give homeowners $500 to $1000 tax credit for new  energy efficient appliances and insulation. Just watch the US economy perk up then. We need  21st century leadership rather than 19th and 20th century technological solutions.   

Global Stock markets in 2001/ 2 will be determined largely by answering three questions:
Q1:  Who will higher energy prices help/hurt the most?
Q2: Who will the continuing US economic slowdown hurt and help?
Q3: Will Investors re-evaluate P/E to traditional levels or remain at " new economy" levels?

The second half of 2001 will continue the trend to lower corporate profits. Over time this will lead to lower expectations and/or price/earning multiples. Intermediate term, we expect  interest rates to steady and/or increase due to a lower  US dollar and eventual inflationary worries in 2002/3.  One potential danger is that it may become   necessary for the FED to defend the US dollar and that will NOT be cause for a major US stock market rally.  Hence, US Bonds and Bond Funds will no longer outperform and should gradually be reduced into Bunds in asset allocation over the next 12 months.                                         

The two positives for the markets are the longer term effects of  lower US interest rates (Don't Fight the Fed) and increasing the  limit of  tax sheltered funds into the market. There is also the tendency of markets to "climb the wall of worry" and we expect plenty of this (worry) coming up.

Capital Preservation will continue to be  important  for global investors in 2001 and into early 2002.  The new  investment strategy paradigm of BUY, HOLD and SELL demands more frequent portfolio reviews, diversification and more frequent trading.  International money flows will no longer exclusively favor the US with Asia and Europe garnering global   interest.    


HOW HIGH IS UP?
HOW LOW IS LOW?

2001 TRADING RANGES
DJIA: 8,800 to 11,660
                            NASDAQ: 1620-3336 [2200-3880]

VALUE WITH GROWTH
Just as stocks with 200 P/E are taboo now, so too will the 100 P/E stocks be next year.

Last year's advice seems so distant and written for another time, another market cycle.  We don't expect a return to the "good ole days", but several compressed market cycles,  both up and  down with increasing sector rotation.
Our advice: Trade more (25% of  portfolio) and take or protect profits at 15%, 20% and 25% profit points for non-core long  term holdings.      

INVESTORS SHOULD BUY AND HOLD STOCKS INTO 2002  THAT ARE:
1) Profitable,
2) P/E under 25 TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications); 20 for others,
3) Less than 10% over Morningstar Value.


I GLOBAL INVESTING

  BUY UK & ASIA
ACCUMULATE  CANADA & NORTHERN EUROPE
         
TRADE THE UNITED STATES
                                              
                                       

The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of selected global markets:

EUROPE - Relative strength in North Euroland & Euro strengthening into 2002         


NORTH AMERICA - Traders paradise

ASIA/PACIFIC - Long term investment opportunities


OTHER- Opportunities for savvy investors ONLY .


As long as it remains an open question whether a  "soft" landing can be engineered  or whether a "hard" crash is inevitable          sooner or  later,  we continue to recommend avoiding most emerging markets in 2001. 
In 2002, the global investing landscape  may be dramatically different.
See our 2002 Stock Market forecasts to be issued this Fall.   


 II TIMING
Traders believe "Making money in  the market is all  about Timing".  The "Buy And Hold" climate we've had in the US stock     market is long PAST  HISTORY.   In 2000/1 it gave to a "Market Timing" and “Stock Picking” environment. Since May        2000,  the new planetary theme became Jupiter/Saturn. This once every 20 year pairing of the two major planets best rewards Value AND Growth. Next we look forward to Saturn opposite Pluto from August  2001 to May  2002 this will reward bean counting cost cutters with solvency, while  punishing off to bankruptcy court profliacy. Overall corporate profits are likely to often disappoint on the short side due to ruthless competition  e.g.  Dell's new corporate strategy.                                                                  

Despite the fact that we do live in interesting times, intermediate term we repeat last year's mantra:
BORING IS GOOD and VALUE plus GROWTH IS BEST and now add Trade for short term profit 15-25% moves.
Old-line technology companies such as  Boeing (BA)  IBM,  Rockwell (ROK), Hitachi  (HIT) and United Technologies     (UTX) will be continue to be safe heavens and generally outperform.                
Traditional safe heavens such as Real Estate [REITS] and select Utilities remain good investments, but the latter will give more sleepless nights.

SHORT TERM
We just finished Jupiter opposite Pluto is May 6, 2001. This ends the past cycle in Energy.
The big new paradigm will be the three passes of Saturn opposite Pluto are August 5 and November 2 in 2001 and May 26, 2002.

The next key total eclipse of the Sun will take place on June 21, 2001. By and large we believe this will be good  for some    global  stock markets, e.g.  England/Ireland and especially  Japan. It potentially provides the Japanese PM enough cosmic    power to finally eclipse the past  financial blockages and move  Japan into the 21st century.  However,  Mercury/Mars      unfortunately  raises the possbility of  increasing  violence and terrorism threats - Watch       

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Nasdaq is likely to both outperform AND underperform the DJIA depending on which months you are looking, i.e. more Traders Heaven. Over the next 12 months, we believe tax revenues for both individuals and corporations will disappoint budget surplus calculators.  May 26, 2002 will be a pivotal  month marking the beginning of the next market cycle.

LONGER TERM

Jupiter will oppose Neptune beginning September 11, 2002 and ending  June 3, 2003.  Obviously good news for both the drug industry as well as gaming industries.  Also look to travel (cruises), natural gas, wind power, leisure and entertainment sectors to outperform.  This is followed by one pass of  Jupiter/Uranus in August of 2003 by which electronic companies e.g. SNE and  PHG will be in heaven thanks   to mass  HDTV. Also at this time, interactive TV and Video on demand will become widespread obviously help AOL and MSFT, but others as well (tba). However, we will also see in 2003 Saturn activating the US Sun.

December 2007  Jupiter will be conjunct  Pluto. The  low  point of the nodal cycle is reached 2008.  This will be followed by Jupiter conjunct Neptune  in 2009 and Jupiter conjunct Uranus  in 2010.


III SECTORS
Over time, there is increased focus on sector based rather than country based approaches to global investing.
Our three favorite post  millennium themes remain: Hydrogen/Solar, Robotics, and Wind/Water (2002/2003).
The old themes of Technology, Communications and Health Care will still matter of course.
See Sector  Coverage  for 2001/2 Relative Sector Weighting updates.    
Additionally, 2001/02 favorites sectors include:

IV STOCKS
Having my Moon in Libra, my Stock Selection is both:
TOP DOWN: country/currency, bourse/sector, individual stock and
BOTTOM UP : strong astrological and/or fundamental/technical indications.

I like to begin with one or more of the following 3 criteria:
  

   A: CASH RICH, not stock rich (Survival of the Fittest) e.g. IBM, Citigroup (C)

   B:  UNDERVALUED using Business Appraisal methodology e.g.  Morningstar           

   C: GOOD HOROSCOPE or in upcoming COSMIC SECTOR Theme:   

     1) Jupiter in Cancer
     2) Saturn/Pluto opposition
     3) Jupiter Opposite Neptune (2002/3)

Please note we are no longer relying the fallen angels strategy- they have already fallen!  It has been replaced by our new favorite strategy:

BUYING FOR THE LONG TERM (May 2002 on) a 2/3 or 3/3 mixture of
1)  BUYING CASH RICH LEADERS  
2) UNDERVALUED
3) ASTROLOGICALLY FAVORED STOCKS AND SECTORS

Our first choice are cash rich global blue chips (companies that can prosper by gaining market share and buying "cheap" assets during an economic slowdown{e.g.  IBM, C ) over small and midcaps.  These are companies that the tough  near term will make them stronger in the long term. As in 2000, our game plan is to invest conservatively, but due to recent high market  volatility and increasingly compressed market cycles,  we now advise trading all accounts more actively- an average of 25% of portfolio  holdings.  Short term,  European (and Asian) stocks will rise and fall in sync with US markets. However, later this year as the Euro appreciates (and the Yen appreciates/depreciates?) and the US dollar is more generally recognized to be in a secular decline,  global outperformance will result in Euroland. This is also true for Canada and parts of Asia to a lesser extent.

Five selected  themes follow. For more and updates, WSNW subscribers   may visit our AFUND premium channels     .                                  

1.  Give expected drop in US dollar of 3-7%, select Country I-Shares or Webs) or Foreign Blue Chips companies:

2. We always like undervalued stocks,  especially   if coupled with a yield greater than the classic value buy signal of 5% such  as high yielding S:  REITs , e.g SSS and WRI.or we may buy non-aggressive Utilities like Con Ed (ED) or Scottish Power (SPI).                                                    

3. S: DJIA FAVORITE 2001 stock, i.e.hold/buy on an intermediate-long term on a relative basis remains IBM. We expect     continued modest consolidation and performance of  Dow Stocks and Diamond  Index (DIA).  Most Blue Chips stocks have  to be traded,  not "buy and held" for better than single digit  returns in 2001.  Two exceptions are: Citigroup (C) and United Technologies   (UTX). On weakness, we may also buy Microsoft along with Boeing (BA),  Home Depot (HD) and General  Electric (GE) if markets correct downward dramatically once again.          

4. FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
   Since before we became one of the first apple dealers in NYC,  we historically have liked betting on emerging technologies.   This  we recommend doing in a basket of stocks and not paying too much of a premium over value for longer term holding in contrast to new related  trading.  WSNW subscribers can surf  our   P: FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES post.
Our current three favorites sectors are:                            

S: APPLIED  ROBOTICS: e.g. Int. Hi-Tech Industries (IHITF)* , Robotic Vision (ROBV) and FANUC.  
BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g  Celsion (CLN) and StemCells (STEM).      
SUCCESSOR ENERGY: e.g. Astropower (APWR) Nuvera (IPO: NVRA) and Evergreen Solar (ESLR).   

*5. AFUND CLIENTS
Business Astrologers know that the best way to predict the future is to create it.
With strong Disclaimers and with an obviously biased view,  I am doing my  best to help create investor wealth for client companies we now consult  for e.g. International  High Tech Industries [IHITF] and Cancall Communications (Screenphone).       


Since May 2, 1988 I have established a superior forecasting record, primarily due to my knowledge of financial astrology. While not perfect as some critics would demand, my precision and accuracy is appreciated by many professional traders and investors.  As more of our forecasting is now private and contracted to money managers and institutional investors, it is my intention to have other financial astrologers and money managers contribute more on my web site in the future.
Latest sample performance figures at AFUND Performance and VOLTrade .
Henry Weingarten

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