2010: THE YEAR OF SILVER PART II
Henry Weingarten Last Updated:
“ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD”
Q1 2010 Gold FV $1011 = Commodity
FV: 912 + Currency FV: 988 + Inflation Metal FV: 916
+ Crisis FV: 1228
Note: The following is a partial abstract of my February 2010 Triple Gold presentation on Precious Metals.
Fair Value for April Gold is currently $1011
Current Probability of 1200 gold again before 2011 70%
Probability of 1500 gold before 2011
Current Probability of 2000 gold before 2011 6%
AFUND H1 2010 FORECAST
1.A mixed picture for Gold but positive for Silver
2.Late Fall/Winter 2010 Silver Astrology is Very strong.
2010 The Year of Silver Part II (Part I 2006- ETF launch)
•In 2010, Central Banks are now close to becoming net buyers of gold, while mine output continues to decline.
- •Gold/XAU ratio 7.15 well above classic buy signal of 5
- •Gold/Silver ratio of 66 too high – should be < 60 (58).
- •Short term Gold Negatives: Mixed Astro & Seasonality.
- •Short term Silver Positives: Astrology.
GOLD INVESTING & TRADING
- •Hold Gold as both an investment & hedge.
- •Gold is the Cheapest insurance against both declining US dollar and inflation.
- Gold and precious metals can perform well in either an inflationary or deflationary environment.
- •Strong Demand underlying from Chinese India Middle East Japanese, Russia, and smart money US & Europe.
Gold Trading Targets often come earlier and revised higher.
What is unusual and new is an EXTREMELY wide 2010 trading range.
2010 GOLD TRADING RANGE $960 - $1240.
2010 SILVER TRADING TARGET $21. ($12.80 - $26 range).
2010 TRADING TARGETS: GOLD $1200 (achieved) & SILVER $21 ($26)
The FOUR FACES OF GOLD
Current Gold Fair Value $1011
Gold is a commodity, currency, inflation measure & crisis metal
Q1 2010 Gold FV: $1011
Commodity FV: $912
Currency FV: $988
Inflation Metal FV: $916
Crisis FV: $1228
Later in 2010, we believe Gold trading will become less dependent on Oil and US$.
US$ wide range $.74 to $.82.
Note: Trading Target is 82 but Fair
Value only .7750 (was .88 12/5/2008). Despite short term strength
in the US$, we expect to see .77-.78 again and possibly even .74 later
this year. TRADERS: Reverse at .82 (80.50+).
Oil wide range bound $58-$91.
Silver Fair Value average is $15 as an Investment and $12 as a Commodity
Note: Silver Investment Fair Value fluctuates between $14.28 -$17.40.
I would like to leave you with two thoughts:
1. Gold and Silver are recommended multiyear investments for both wealth preservation and wealth creation.
2. Ben Bernanke was and will continue to be great for Gold
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX
If $400 gold indicates the presence of inflation, how can there be $900 gold and virtually none? Must it be $1200 before the talking TV heads acknowledge what every living and breathing American knows: Living in the REAL world costs are far HIGHER than the official US government statistics pretend!
2010 Update: $1200 wasn’t high enough. Must it be $1500? 2000?
QUOTES IN THE NEWS
“Conservative investors are advised to have a portion of
their savings allocated to physical bullion, while speculative investors are
advised to own shares of carefully selected mining companies, both domestic and
Carlo Besenius, CEO Creative Global Investments
Gold-Silver-PGM forecast for 2010
or Oil: What's a Better Inflation Hedge?
“When gold hit $700 people said it would fall. Wrong. And
wrong again at $1000.”
Producer Stocks Poised to Underperform Bullion
On The New Gold ETF GDXJ & GDX
Investing: An Owner's Manual
The Recurring Gold 'Bubble'
As prices spike, long-term investors should exercise
Isn't the Best Protection Against Inflation
HW: Yes, but it does offer protection!
HW: We continue
to recommend accumulating on weakness, ideally circa $15.
for gold rally could crush other assets
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