Some think we are going to 650  Maybe but I believe either a bottom today or by Friday.
A good place for a gutsy trading buy today with a tight trailing stop. IF stopped out buy again Friday with a close stop.
This is a trade-hopefully positional back to $880!!!.

AUGUST 15:  8:15 AM  GOLD BUY 3
We are now under $800 and tested long term support circa 780 which was both a TRADING and an investing buy for us.  Ditto with silver (below 13).  Trades of course use normal money management and trailing profit/loss stops. Investments are accumulations for midSeptember. 

As for stocks we may add now or next week as there are some more short term negatives on astrology later next week. 

REMEMBER EVEN WITH OIL AT $90, THERE WILL BE MORE INFLATION SHOWING AS THE COSTS OF HIGHER OIL PRICES SHOW UP ACROSS THE BOARD.  

NEXT TWO WEEKS MANY LARGER PLAYERS ON VACATION, SO WIDE SWINGS POSSIBLE IN ALL MARKETS. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THEM!!!

AUGUST 12 MARKERS:
GOLD $785, $797-$800  SILVER $12.90

As forecast at our July 2008 Triple Gold Investment Conference, we now recommend 50% allocated to precious metals and stocks (this is not 50% of your portfolio, but 50% of your portfolio allocation to precious metals, which can be as little as 5% and as much as 25% percent H2 2008). 

We recommend full allocation before mid-September. 

We also like some of the mid and large cap stocks in the XAU and HUI - which are now close to or below their 2008 lows and/or 52-week lows, both as intermediate terms trades AND investments.
We think SSRI under $25 or AEM under $44 (near 50% from its highs) are fresh possible buys, in addition to NG and the GDX. 

Whether to buy more this week depends on if $110 Oil holds tomorrow or goes back up to retest $121-$126 first. 
Remember, investors not only over-pay but dump valuable assets.  How to play the second half of our buys over the next five weeks is not an easy call. How then to combine time and price? 

Using a dollar cost averaging approach, we may split the remainder into five parts and do one a week (the first - today or tomorrow), or may do just two or three buys by price, e.g. US Dollar Index 78, Oil $110 or Gold $800.
Unlike earlier this summer, GOLD, SILVER and an increasing number of quality precious metal stocks are NOW cheap and under-valued! 

Remember, I see these as intermediate term investing buys, NOT trading buys. However, there is nothing wrong with taking a quick 50% (early) profit and letting some, but NOT ALL, of these investing buys become profitable intermediate term trades. 

[Wall Street Next Week newsletter subscribers, note: our current 15 favorite mining stocks are listed in our premium subscriber area: MINING (8/11/2008). Ideally, buying at 20% or more below value is a good buy.] 

Trading notes: 

1) Current Gold numbers: 
833 PIVOT   S1 821 S2 810 S3 800 S4 777     R1 868 R2 888 R3 908 R4 940. 

2)  Silver reached our $14 target price and is now a buy for us as well as Gold under $833. 

3)  Should you decide to buy more than 50% this week, be prepared to treat the fresh buying as a trade, if it goes against you. Watch out if Oil drops below $100, but still be fully committed by early September. This approach applies more to physical gold and silver, than gold and silver stocks which I am buying and holding.

READER: I don’t know if can see it Henry but the XAU to gold ratio is .157 if it were to close at that today that would be the lowest level ever gold stocks are very cheap down here.
I am looking for a rally then a decline where gold goes to new lows for this move but the stocks do not. 
HW: That is very possible, but $833this was our target from our July 15, 16 conference when gold $990+.  I agree what you say is possible, but this is not a bad place to accumulate. We do have two more investing buys ahead before midseptember for both precious metals and precious metal stocks.

While there is only a 30% chance this is a bottom, we like the prices of stocks such as NG $6.64 and AXU $2.85 and the GDX <$37.25.  So while there is no rush (you have until MidSeptember), sometime later today can be our FIRST of four select gold stock buys.  As for gold and silver it can drop further to $838 or perhaps test and break $800 if Oil breaks $110.
Still I feel comfortable with a first intermediate term nibble over the next few days.  This will be the first of 4 buys initially planned for the beginning of early June to early September.

• COMMODITY: DEMAND IS UP, SUPPLY NOT INCREASING AS MUCH
• INFLATION: ONLY IN WASHINGTON DC IS THERE LITTLE OR NO INFLATION
• CURRENCY: DO YOU BELIEVE THE US DOLLAR DESERVES TO STRENGTHEN?
• SAFETY: DO YOU BELIEVE THE WORLD IS SAFER THAN LAST YEAR?

Therefore short term traders have been advised periodically to "Buy on any weakness. Our forecast remains Gold WILL BE above $850 by/before February 2008."

We will be updating here with some of the forecasts from our upcoming January 31  Triple Gold Conference at the Princeton Club in New York.  

     On Thursday January 31, 2008 we recommended shorting gold and silver $940 and  Silver above $17 until at least under Fair Value.

We continue to recommend reviewing the companies that will be presenting at our January 31 Triple Gold Conference at the Princeton Club.

QUOTES IN THE NEWS
"We're still in the very early part of the cycle. People have to look at gold as an instrument which right now has a demand-supply imbalance which looks very favorable. Most people still don't have the asset."
Juerg Kiener, Swiss Asia Capital

"Gold is going to be a great investment in 2008. The $1,000 an ounce is certainly in view now."
 Greg Smith, managing director, Fat Prophets U.K.

"It's far easier to argue that we're at the start of a period of higher inflation and lower U.S. growth, rather than we're emerging from the worst. All that is strongly pro-gold moving forward."
Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman, GFMS  

ON THE WEB

I Can t Think of a Better Time to Buy Juniors / John Embry
HW: I agree.