2009: GOLD IS THE ANSWER
Henry Weingarten Last Updated:
“ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD”
Q1 2009 Gold FV $912/955 or $1005? = Commodity FV: 840 + Currency FV:
960 + Inflation Metal FV: $840 + Crisis FV: $1005/1200 or
Note: The following is an abract of my December 2008 Terrapinn panel presentation on Precious Metals.
Fair Value for Feb Gold is currently
Current Probability of 1000 gold by/before 2010 99%
Current Probability of 1200 gold by/before 2010 90%
Current Probability of 1500 gold by/before 2010 71%
Current Probability of 2000 gold by/before 2010 11%
AFUND H1 2009 FORECAST
H1 2009 is positive for Yellow Gold, Black Gold (Oil) and Silver
- •Physical Gold is selling a premium – Why?
- •Asian Central Bank (CB) buying more than offsets European CB selling
- •While there is short term strength in the US $, fair value is .78 not .88 (12/05/2008)
- •Gold/Silver ratio of 87 is too high – it should drop 65 or lower.
- •With base metal mining supply dropping, Silver as a byproduct supply is reduced
- •High end Silver jewelry demand is growing
- •2010 Silver Astrology is very strong
GOLD INVESTING & TRADING
- •Hold Gold as both an investment & hedge.
- •Gold is the Cheapest insurance against both declining US dollar and inflation.
- Gold and precious metals are can perform well in either an inflationary or deflationary environment.
- •Strong Demand underlying from Chinese India Middle East Japanese, Russia, and smart money US & Europe.
Gold Trading Targets come earlier and revised higher
2009 TRADING TARGETS: GOLD $1005 & SILVER $14/$16
2010 TRADING TARGETS: GOLD $1200 & SILVER $21/$26
The FOUR FACES OF GOLD
Current Gold Fair Value $912
Silver Fair Value is $14 as an Investment and $11 as a Commodity
Gold is a commodity, currency, inflation measure and crisis metal
Q1 2009 Gold FV $912/955 or $1005? =
Commodity FV: $840 +
Currency FV: $940 +
Inflation Metal FV: $820 +
Crisis FV: $1045/1200 or $1400?
Weaker US Dollar Same Time Next Year
.78 Fair Value US Dollar Index (.88 12/5/2008)
As with Currency “release” our forecast has been:
oil drops to 46 or below, it will no longer have a negative effect on
gold/silver and will be positive” [as gold/oil ratio far from
I would like to leave you with two thoughts:
1. Gold and Silver are recommended multiyear investments for both wealth preservation and wealth creation.
2. Ben Bernanke was and will continue to be great for Gold
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX
If $400 gold indicates the presence of inflation, how can there be $700 gold and virtually none?
Must it be $1200 before the talking TV heads acknowledge what every living and breathing American knows: Living in the REAL world costs are far HIGHER than the official US government statistics pretend!
QUOTES IN THE NEWS
“Gold is still an exceptional buy. Traders will start looking
at more traditional relationships like future inflation, government spending
and devaluing of currencies.”
Frank McGhee, head
dealer, Integrated Brokerage Services
Price Seasonal Trend Pattern Has Changed!
shows gold underpriced by $400
Rogers Says Commodities' Fundamentals `Unimpaired,' Prices to Rebound
Can t Think of a Better Time to Buy Juniors / John Embry
HW: I agree.
Why Investors are Hoarding Gold
crisis spawns new kind of gold rush
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2009 AFUND TRIPLE GOLD CONFERENCES
READER: Is Q2 the best period of gold in 2009?
should be one of the three best quarters in 2009.
READER: If you have the time can you please let me know your "top three
picks" from the global Gold miners and
producers as under?
I do not know if
you fancy RANDGOLD [GOLD] of South
I am planning to
buy top three stocks from the above short list this week
for investment for self and clients for the year 2011. My
target price for Gold for December 2011 is US $ 3000.00 pto).
HW: Personally I
prefer midcaps and small caps as they offer a far better Risk/Reward under such
a scenario. Additionally I am inclined to wait another week rather than this
week and or would recommend stepping in.
That being said
I would probably choose AAUK, ABX and GG.
READER: : Very
close to my top three picks - NEM, ABX and GG.