© The Astrologers Fund, Inc. Last Updated:
First Trade: May 28, 1997? (Data not fully verified)
Incorporation: February 23, 1996 10 am Denver Colorado
Key Date: May 27, 1997 became a public company through a reverse merger.
Headquarters: Valencia, California
Birth data of Principals:
David P Haberman Chairman of the Board: November 08, 1960 2: 29 am New York, NY
David A. Walker President: November 14, 1957 1:19 am Santa Monica, CA
Web site: http://dcht.com
Investor Relations: IR FAQ Email Investor Relations Phone: 888-HYDROGN EXT 11
A good analyst withdraws his emotions from both decisions as well as
opinion. However, I believe their action was an illustration of a
management error, indicative of a need for internal change. Accordingly,
we have downgraded DCHT from a "long term Buy" to an "intermediate term
Hold". We plan on reducing the size of our client investments in DCHT and
will monitor the company's progress and stock price closely.
Will DCHT be an APPLE or a Commodore?
an AOL or a Prodigy?
The DCHT technical team is highly dedicated, hardworking and intelligent and I believe their technology is currently superior to their competitors. However, the best technology does not always (or even often) win. Other business factors are equally, if not more, important. Company progress on all fronts should be closely monitored in 2000.
The 11th Annual U.S. Hydrogen Meeting of the National Hydrogen Association February 29 to March 2, 2000 is coming up. This meeting time into Earth Day 2000 should provide excellent momentum for increasing public awareness of a hydrogen (or preferably solar hydrogen) future.
This summer is a good time for mergers and acquisitions. While DCHT stock price has been bid over $4 for 20 days and therefore one critical component for Nasdaq listing has been met, we were surprised their application was not fully prepared in advance. Time and tide wait for no man and especially no 21st century technology company. Current stock momentum is a critical company resource. Its current high price (relative to 1999) makes M & A possible, in addition to attracting new, strong talent to the company.
The fuel cell sector is evolving into a highly publicized industry, and may soon rival the computer sector in terms of growth. In order to dominate the premium portable power market segment, we would prefer to see a more aggressive posture from management. I see the need for integrating more outside consultants' strategic advice and assistance (including financial astrology?) to help prepare to foil damaging attacks by future fuel sector competitors. More frequent investor relation communication is desirable, especially after the company moves to Nasdaq. Aggressively cultivating the green, SRI investment community is another step. Many such steps are needed if current management wishes to remain independent and the company to become truly successful. Should they achieve Nasdaq status in the next few months and receive third party validation from energy heavyweights, e.g. several multi-million dollar orders, then DCHT could be on the fast track to success. In that event, only moderate profit taking, i.e. selling into rallies, would be appropriate.
Finally, should DCHT not win the fuel cell technology race in
2000, its hydrogen sensor division, negligible debt plus valuable fuel
cell technology assets, e.g. patents and staffing, would make it an excellent
buy out candidate in 2001 or 2002 in the $12-$15 price range. This fact
alone makes this company a potential win win for long term investors.
When choking of car or bus fumes, or when cleaning the soot off my NYC window sill, the importance of supporting successor energy companies such as DCHT becomes clearly mandated:
not only to make a personal profit, but to make a social difference.
Currently DCHT stock is trying to hold 6 as support. We see 6 as its pivot and it trading in a range of 4-8, with 4 a potential value buy and 8 or higher an overvalued price without a Nasdaq listing and therefore a potential trading sell. While a $15 target has been projected by Fuel Cell Sector optimists, and this was our potential 2001 price target, too many fundamental issues need to be resolved first. In addition, short term, the Nasdaq market is about to go into a tailspin and this will most likely effect almost all technology stocks.
For another view, see Ram Capital Management's December 17 DCH Technology stock report.
READER: Is your firm still affiliated with DCHT? If so, would you be
so kind as to provide a brIef statement regarding their growth potential.
HW: No, we are no longer affiliated with DCHT and their growth potential is huge. How much management will succeed in actualizing it is the question and as of today, that is for me a big open question.
READER: I realize that DCHT is no longer a client but I suspect you
still include them in your portfolios. They seem to be in some classic
Elliott Wave moves. The current down (profit taking after the Discovery
Showcase in S.F.) looks like a 4th leg of an up trend whose larger context
may itself be the 3rd leg of a longer term up-cycle. True, we have
to wait and see, but I am thinking about an earlier email you got about
Saturn's workings on both DCHT and its CEO this May. Could be the
"A" or "B" downswing might be a biggee?
HW: They are out of all of our actively managed portfolios. Last week we sold at 14 the last of our "investing" positions. They "exist" only in our hypothetical 2000 UIT which by definition is buy and hold until either our target price is reached, or one year or two years time. As to my selling of DCHT earlier, this was due to three reasons: 1) they reached our 2001 price target 2) money management (we are raising cash levels in ALL portfolios ahead of May 2000 but 3) mostly for personal reasons: see my last DCHT post. I do believe Fuel cell technology is a major future sector, but like Internet companies, I view them as overpriced across the board. If you are buying and holding at this price (above $8), you are betting on Al Gore becoming President instead of George Bush (in which case you are holding Oil drillers like Schumberger and TransOcean).
Reader: I am interested in the birth date of DCHT.... What do you see
for them between now and May? Also, what is your opinion of the Fuel Cell
industry short or long term?
HW: The birth data of DCHT is posted DCHT Part III. All Fuel companies are ahead of themselves as real profits won't be seen until 2002-4. Of course, there are great advantages to being first to stake out your turf. Price wise, it is analogous to the gold sector. Stock prices rise upon discovery, then a pause/pullback before another rise upon production. Our view of DCHT between now and May will be posted on our web site February 1.
READER: Do you think it is appropriate to buy STOX [V.URL] and DCH Technology
[DCHT] today at its current price level? [I see Stox.com] as a high risk
investment with a potential far more than a double. [I believe] if we value
Stox with possible competitors, they should trade not at 12, but between
HW: You are giving my 2001 price target. If you are asking if DCHT at 6 and STOX at $CD12 are better values than their sector competitors, the answer is most definitely YES. If you are asking CAN V.URL trade to $CD20-30 this year, the answer is also Yes, it is possible. From a cosmic value view, a stock price greater than $CD12-15 is expensive, but far cheaper than their competitors. Without question, I would personally much rather buy and hold shares of Stox.com than an equivalent amount of almost all the big name dot.coms - AOL, Yahoo, Amazon etc. Our new AFUND report on them will be posted shortly on our web site. Likewise, DCHT over $8 is also expensive as I find their competitors. However, I would much rather buy and hold shares of DCHT at 6, than Ballard at 65 or Plug at 93.
READER: DCHT!!! I just panicked when it dropped so much this am.
Also, when do you see stox.com going up again?
HW: You expect DCHT stock to rocket up 20 fold in four months without any profit taking?
Stox.com looks to me like it is in the process of doubling again as it did for us last year. My question is what will happen at that time, but I will worry about that next month.
READER: GO DCHT.
HW: YES, 1500%+ return is not too shabby and we believe this could be a long term winner, not a "poopy head" Internet play.
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