2004 MARKET FORECASTS

FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY:
It is NOT WHAT you know, but WHEN you know it.

© Henry Weingarten Last Updated:

Much of the following material has been serialized in WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK and our subscriber premium channels. This will next be updated in May after our 11th Astrology and Stock Market Seminar May 14-17, 2004 in New York City.
Notes: Hyper links that are prefaced with a S: are restricted toWSNW Subscribers.
This forecast was posted on our web site in October in our premium channels for WSNW subscribers.


WILL US POLICY PREVENT A JAPANESE OUTCOME OR JUST DELAY IT?
HOW LONG WILL ENERGY PRICES STAY HIGH?
WILL THE US DOLLAR FIGHT BACK OR TAKE A DIVE?


Many advisors suggest investors fight the urge to be bearish and enjoy the run-up in the stock market. I wonder what these same advisors were advising in March and April 2000?  While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003 is mixed, the external risk potential is horrific! We consider the long term economic fall out of the US Iraq invasion quite severe and believe that global markets can retest or break their 2003 lows.

Stock selection is paramount and will count more than sector rotation and even stock market timing!
Given that the traditional "Buy and Hold" investing strategy will continue to under perform, we again recommend trading 50%  in "investing" portfolios in 2004. TAKE/PROTECT PROFITS CONTINUOUSLY.
For 3 years we warned:  LEARN THE MARKET LESSONS OF 2000, BECAUSE THEY WILL REPEAT IN 2003. Now that the forecast is true, come June 2004, many investors may be berating themselves with why didn't they sell when the Nasdaq was circa 2000? Why didn't they learn their lesson in March 2000?

BOTTOM LINE:
DON'T BUY AND HOLD. THE STOCK MARKET IS LIVING ON BORROWED TIME. I ADVISE KEEPING A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO, ELIMINATE MARGIN DEBT AND BE CASH RICH.

MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING FOR EXPERIENCED INVESTORS
In order to sleep soundly at night, I recommend a Hedge Fund style Market Neutral Strategy in 2004. This involves both buying under valued and selling short overvalued stocks.  This is best done in industry pairs as it involves the smallest risk, although the most work. Alternately, stocks can be hedged against their individual sector membership or the overall market: Buying a stock and selling its sector or broad market index, or Selling a stock and buying its sector index or the overall market.
If you are bullish, I would recommend a long/short ratio of 2-1.
If you incline more to the bearish camp as I do, then a long/short ratio of 1-2 is preferable.


There are five primary celestial and terrestrial phenomena affecting world events and global markets in 2004:


Global Stock markets in 2004 will be determined largely by answering three questions:
Q1:  How will Bush's military adventures affect Oil prices and help or hinder the War on Terror?
Q2:  Who will be helped/hurt the most by the lower US dollar?
Q3:  What P/e's will investors be willing to pay for modest corporate growth?

 HOW HIGH IS UP? HOW LOW IS LOW?

AFUND TRADING RANGES
DJIA: 7816 to 10848**
SPX: 860 to 1120
NASDAQ: 1140-2080

VALUE WITH GROWTH
Capital Preservation is again most important for global investors; hence, we stress caution. Previously, we recommended an investment strategy paradigm of BUY and HOLD Growth stocks with at least reasonable valuations based on current and future profits.  International money flows no longer exclusively favor the US, with Asia, Europe and even emerging markets garnering more global interest. In 2004, both Value and Growth will periodically outperform and under perform. Market timing will be the key.

Classic "Buy and Hold" is passé: Stock picking, more than sector membership, and Market timing will rule in 2004. Successful investing will depend on knowing: 
When all the good news has already been factored into the share price, at what price is the valuation just too high? 
When all the bad news has already been factored into the share price, at what price is the valuation too cheap?

Any and all investing profits need to be protected against future bear assaults in 2004. 
Trade more (50% of  portfolio) and take/protect profits at 10%-20% profit points for long term non-core holdings.

LEARN THE LESSONS OF 2000, THEY REPEATED IN 2003 WITH EXCESSIVE SPECULATION:
1) Buy carefully and when stock valuation becomes super frothy again, SELL.
2) Be careful about owning stocks that are “priced to perfection”, they can only disappoint.
3) It is NEVER “different this time.”
4) Ultimately, profits matter.
        

INVESTORS SHOULD ONLY BUY AND HOLD STOCKS IN 2004 THAT ARE:
1) Profitable, well managed companies,
2) P/E* under 17 for Growth and under 14 for Value or.       
3) A PEG <1.4, or undervalued by 10% or more, or dividend yields of 4% or more.

*After allowing for pension liabilities and expensing options.
** Our October forecast was exceeded in December 2003 due to Saddam capture, making a possible up DOW target as high as 10848. Similarly, our SPX early projection of 1090 was met. Accordingly these numbers have been revised upward.

I GLOBAL INVESTING
BUY JAPAN
ACCUMULATE EUROPE:
UK & HOLLAND
TRADE THE UNITED STATES
HOLD SAFETY: BERMUDA, LUXEMBOURG, SWITZERLAND

The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of selected global markets:
Country risk is re-emerging as a corollary to anti-globalization forces.  Sophisticated investors today are rightly concerned about being overly invested in any one country or currency.

EUROPE - A stronger global alternative to the US
European stocks have a 25% discount to valuations compared to stocks in the United States and domestic demand is growing. Some exporting companies' sales are being hurt by the dollar's drop against the Euro. A further surge in the euro above 124 against the dollar would hit some euro zone based export firms hard. Despite this, on a global basis, Europe is still undervalued and more reasonably valued.      


NORTH AMERICA - Traders paradise


ASIA/PACIFIC
- Intermediate term investment opportunities in Japan.

Long term, China and Asia could be the fastest growing area in the world 2010-2030. It is only a matter of time before Asia is no longer so dependent upon American consumer markets to thrive.


OTHER- Opportunities for savvy investors ONLY .

We continue to advise caution for emerging markets unless you monitor them very closely. They "behave like rich-country ones on speed, both up and down". It is very important for investors to distinguish between high and low risk countries.
Current AFUND ratings on the BIG Four Emerging Markets are: Brazil (Watch), China (Wait), India (Hold) and Russia (Avoid). Later in 2004, the global investing landscape may be dramatically different.

WSNW subscribers should periodically review our S: AFUND GLOBAL 12 - for our favorite global blue chip long term investments.


II TIMING
Traders believe "Making money in the market is all about Timing".  The "Buy And Hold" climate we used to have in the US stock market is long PAST HISTORY.  Since 2000, it has become a "Market Timing" and “Stock Picking” environment.  Markets reward best stocks that have Value AND Growth. Corporate profits for more well managed and sufficiently capitalized companies should rise modestly, helped by the low interest rates.                                                                                                
Despite the fact that we do live in interesting times, short term we repeat last year's mantra:
VALUE plus GROWTH is BEST
and Trade for short term profit 10-20% moves.

PRE-NOVEMBER 2004
The current Zeitgeist of Minimal buying enthusiasm, then slight profit taking will later see the usual January effect Nasdaq buying, the usual April tax rally and reversal, a very tough summer and then a "surprising" strong September UP election buying.

Stock markets will benefit less from low interest rates.  Saturn transiting the Sun of President Bush and the USA Independence Horoscope cosmically demands "paying the piper". Uranus reenters Pisces in late December which refavors the biotech industry innovation over the next couple of years. Jupiter leave Virgo and enters Libra September 24, 2004. This plus medical electioneering will change profitability models for many companies in the health care industry. Q4 2004, we expect M&A activity to accelerate in the Financial sector. We will talk more about which sectors such as the fashion industry will benefit H2 2004 from Jupiter's move into Libra in our May 2004 update.

The next key astrological event for the US is Pluto opposite the US Mars in January, May and November. This is likely to intensify (Pluto) conflicts (Mars opposition) and we unfortunately will remain a nation at war. The 3 biggest outer planet aspects: Jupiter Square Pluto (8/6), Jupiter 135 Neptune (9/15) and Jupiter trine Neptune (11/29) are quite brief in duration and intensity and may have little market influence outside of the energy and financial sectors. Of considerable consequence may be the pre-US election Solar Eclipse of October 13, 2004. More on this in our May 2004 update.

LONGER TERM

2005: The fifth year of each decade has been positive since 1881.  We see no reason at this moment to disagree with history.

March 29, 2006 is a Total Solar Eclipse. Also in 2006 Jupiter squares Neptune 1/28, 3/16 and 9/24.

2007: Jupiter Square Uranus: 1/22, 5/11, 10/9 and then in December 2007: Jupiter will be conjunct Pluto.

The low point of the nodal cycle is reached in 2008 and Pluto ingresses into Capricorn.. 

Jupiter conjunct Neptune in 2009: 5/27, 7/10, 12/21.

The next epic shifting planetary configurations in 2010/2011 of Jupiter conjunct Uranus AND Jupiter opposition Saturn as well as Uranus entering Aires and Neptune enters Pisces.  ALL precede the December 21, 2012 Mayan end date.


III SECTORS
Sector based investing, while no longer replacing country based approaches to global investing, still is very important.
Favorite 2004/2005 future themes are: Biotechnology, Hydrogen/Solar Energy, Nanotechnology and Wind/Water. 
The themes of Technology, Communications and Health Care continue to matter.
WSNW subscribers: please note we update our coverage on the following industry sectors on our premium Silver posting area: S: COMMUNICATIONS, S: COMPUTERS, S: ENERGY, S: HEALTH CARE S: MINING, S: REITS and S: Leisure.            
Our 2004 favorite sector themes are:         

IV STOCKS
2004 will again be more a stock pickers market, than a sector based one.  However, less important will be the need to research closely for skeleton's hidden in the closet. They have already been mostly discovered.

Having my Moon in Libra, my Stock Selection is both:

TOP DOWN: country/currency, bourse/sector, individual stock and
BOTTOM UP : strong astrological and/or fundamental/technical indications.

I like to begin with one or more of the following 4 criteria:

   A: CASH RICH, WELL MANAGED AND PROFITABLE,  

   B:  UNLOVED BUT UNDERVALUED, 

   C:  POSITIVE MOMENTUM AND MONEY FLOWS          

   D: GOOD HOROSCOPE OR IN AN ASTROLOGICALLY FAVORED SECTOR:   

     1) Jupiter in Virgo until Q4 when Jupiter enters Libra.
    

Winter/Spring 2004's favorite strategy will be Market Neutral Hedging: Buying a strong stock while shorting an appropriate index (SPX or Nasdaq), or Pairs Trading - buying a strong company and selling a weak one in the same sector usually makes money whether the market moves up, down or sideways. Over the next few months, we will not so much be investing as doing short term trades such as shorting Nasdaq Internut-like fantasies.

Our first choice this Winter will be cash rich dividend paying global blue chips. These are companies that are prospering by gaining market share and buying "cheap" assets during this economic slowdown over small and midcaps.  These are companies that will become far stronger in the long term.  Our game plan is to invest conservatively, but due to recent high market volatility and increasingly compressed market cycles, we now advise trading all accounts more actively, at least 50% of portfolio holdings! Note: European and Asian stocks may NO longer rise and fall fully in sync with US markets as the US dollar is now generally recognized to be in a secular decline. WSNW subscribers should periodically review our S: AFUND GLOBAL 12 - for our favorite global blue chip long term investments.
                                               
Six selected Investing themes follow. For more and updates, WSNW subscribers may visit our AFUND premium channels.    

1.  The US dollar will fall still more, select Country I-Shares or Foreign Blue Chip companies to hedge:

2. We always like undervalued stocks, especially if coupled with a yield greater than the classic value buy signal of 5%. However, for H1 2004, we are happy with 4%. Thereafter, we will be demanding at least 5%. Given Saturn's entry into Cancer, we reduced our previously favored REIT exposure while we wait for more of a downward real estate price adjustment. We also recommend stocks that are 10% or more undervalued or potential M&A acquisition candidates. WSNW subscribers may wish to read our S: Income& Dividend stocks post for more.

3. S: DJIA FAVORITE 2005 stocks are American Express (AMEX) and surprisingly ATT (T). The latter I presume is due to a buy out, merger or new management strategy. Caterpillar (CAT) in December 2003,  IBM and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) will also be rebought in 2004 for long term buy and hold investment portfolio allocations. However, even Blue Chip stocks have to be traded, not "buy and  held" for better than 10% returns in 2004. Our least favorite Dow Dog remains Eastman Kodak, whose days in the Dow is surely numbered.              

4.  STOCKS FOR BAD TIMES
Gold, entertainment and consumer staples often outperform in bad times. Such stocks are to be watched and accumulated on weakness before market bulls become concerned that the world economy is not recovering as strongly as they hope and believe. Also considered traditional safe havens in times of uncertainty are utilities and property trusts. However, deregulation and future interest rate increases will make them less attractive in 2004.
Our S: Stocks for Bad Times is a defensive, lower risk value oriented portfolio that allows one sleep better at night even if there is more terrorism or the "recovery" takes time and is not on "TV" time? Also included are income oriented stocks as well as an SRI component to feel good about, even if one is not making a ton of money. This, along with Health care, are our two favorite sectors to buy and hold during market weakness.

5. FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
Even before we became one of the first Apple dealers in NYC, we historically have liked betting on emerging technologies.   This we recommend doing in a basket of stocks, because this is a high risk-high return investment that is best done in a diversified manner. Also I don't like to pay too much of a premium over value for longer term holding. 
Note: Given  inevitable future boom-bust cycles, the "safe" play is the equipment sellers who always make money. After the Klondike and California gold rush, most miners went home broke. The real money was made by freighters and merchants who brought and marketed supplies. So too with Biotechs, the Internet and Nanotechnology today.
Our 2004/2005 favorite ET sectors are:                            

BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g. BBH and IBB or heavyweights Amgen (AMGN), Cephalon (CEPH) and Genentech (DNA) can be trading buys on strong pullbacks.  I prefer to invest in companies that have multiple products in clinical development.        
SUCCESSOR ENERGY: e.g. Vestas and Gamesa.
                Watch: FuelCell Energy (FCEL), Hydrogenics (HYGS), Mechanical Technology (MKTY) and Quantum Technologies (QTWW).
NANOTECHNOLOGY: Watch: Veeco Instruments (VECO) and FEI (FEIC).  

*6. AFUND CLIENTS
Business Astrologers know that the best way to predict the future is to create it.
With strong Disclaimers and with an informed but obviously biased view, I am doing my best to help create investor wealth for client companies we now consult for including International High Tech Industries [IHITF] and Gallery (GARQF).


Since May 2, 1988 I have established a superior forecasting record primarily due to my knowledge of financial astrology. While not perfect as some critics would demand, my precision and accuracy is appreciated by many professional traders and investors.  As more of our forecasting is now private and contracted to money managers and institutional investors, it is my intention to have other financial astrologers and money managers contribute more on my web site in the future.
Latest sample performance figures at AFUND Performance.
Henry Weingarten

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2003 Market Forecast
2002 Market Forecast
2001 Market Forecast
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