1. NOVEMBER MARKETS
2. QUOTES
3. MILLION DOLLAR GUESSING
4. LETTERS
Like the fall of 1929, fortunes will be lost (and made) over the next
few months.
Last year it was Asia, this year it is Y2K.
Forget the excuses, the market is OVER VALUED and Saturn is going to
Square Uranus in November. Need I say more?
Some perpetual bulls believe the broad market was oversold enough to
declare an "end" to the bear market? I don't agree. It has barely started.
Where was the pain? While IBM dropped 22 points Thursday morning, it was
soon forgotten and one later we closed with Banking euphoria.
Wait until November when more Tech stocks follow the example of Pervasive
Software [PVSW] which plunged 66 percent on Friday. Now everyone still
wants to own stocks. When few want to, then, it may begin to
be over... but that is far into the future....perhaps as far as 10 trading
days away! ;)
As traders, October 19 was too easy a short squeeze. We said in May, "1999 is more like 1929 than 1987." The October 24 70th anniversary of the 1929 crash this Monday is one of three key dates for us to attack the stock market in the next 3 weeks. Will it come back up thereafter? Are you so certain that you are willing to bet your life savings? And when? In December? In 2000? In 2001? 2002? 2008?
KEY DATES: October 25, November 5
DJIA:
DOWN
2. "The Fed has no choice but to tighten. It has to
maintain its credibility and has a chance of losing it if it does not move
to tighten next month."
Bruce Steinberg, chief economist, Merrill Lynch
HW: We have said this all year.
"You need to do better than just beat the Street by a couple of cents
to make an impression in the market at this point,''
Jeff Sadler, FAC Equities analyst
HW: No doubt we must be getting closer to the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction
(common sense) of May 2000.
"Extending the duration of the cuts is a possibility. It would be a
positive step for reasonable prices in the future."
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Nasser al-Sabah
HW: Will oil producers extend supply limits much beyond March 16 (Final
Pass of Jupiter Square Neptune)? I don't think so!
3. Online broker E*Trade and General Motors are offering $1 million to the person who can correctly guess where the Dow Jones industrial average settles on the last trading day of the year. Entries to the contest, called eMillion Mania, can be made through Web site www.emillionmania.com.
My guess is 7001.67 while my wife is using my higher alternate forecast given at our May 1999 NYC Astrology and Stock Market Seminar. Due to the very strong market, we revised our earlier estimate up to 7001.69!
4. READER: Give 'em Hell, Henry! We may see some interesting reactions
to the Full Moon conj. Jupiter and square Neptune this weekend! Big UP
& TOP in inflation hedges, high volatility in currencies & international
bonds. Large FAILURES!
HW: Thanks Arch, same to you.
READER: You say to buy bonds at 6.40 ob. Can you be more specific?
I am not familiar with bond trading.
HW: I am suggesting a conservative investment, not a bond trade.
We foresee 2 more Fed rate increases. While there could be some principal
loss, with interest, US Bonds will still generate a positive return and
outperform most pure stock portfolios for 6 to 9 months. However, I do
not recommend this for non-US citizens, as the US dollar will continue
to decline over the next year.
READER: XAU has now filled the Sep gap and is quite oversold.
This gold really needs to get going fast to generate a final thrust higher
for this move, or else we will end up with a retest/lower high only.
HW: Yes it is possible that our original target of $325 was the right
one. If so, we will have to wait until next year for our revised higher
targets of XAU 100+ to be reached.
READER: The tickers SRC in up/down does not work on Yahoo or SVC from
WSNW are these on a different exchange?
HW: Whoops! Service Corporation stock symbol is SRV.
READER: What would be your target price for Disney? Do you share Morningstar
value rating of $14.26?
HW: With or without Eisner? I am not looking much at Disney these
days. It is primarily for "Mickey Mouse" investors, as I consider this
stock yielding only 0.2 - a "goofy" buy!
READER: I put in a buy order for DCHTE at .25. Their bid,
I was told, is .31.
HW: Some shares were traded at .25 and you may or may not get
them. Most of our buying was higher in the 30's and low 40's. You
may have to pay more, .32 to .35 if you definitely want to own it. I am
using the 0.25 price limit for second and third buys, not first buys.
READER: When we were in Vancouver 2 weeks ago, we visited Stox.com.
James Hinton spent about 1 hour with us explaining the company. Then
we met some of the rest of the staff. I was so impressed, I bought
more shares on the spot. Now, onward and upward!
HW: Yes, I believe any visitor must be equally impressed as we both
were. Always best to do thorough due diligence.
READER: What does EOD stand for?
HW: End of Day. This is similar to "MOC" Market on close, but not always,
e.g. 4pm vs. 4:15 in futures. See our About
Wall Street Alerts for more information.
READER: Re: DCH, you said, "Note: My three favorite new post-millennium
themes are: Hydrogen...." Another one of your favorites, RD, is maybe
the only Oil company that is favorable on hydrogen. Having worked
a bit in that field (among others), I think this is a good call on
your part.
HW: Thank you for your comments. I believe DCH is in contact
with RD.
READER: I thought it was odd to hear on CNBC that the judge in the Microsoft
trial is going to announce his decision on SOME Friday. People were
speculating that that was indicating a negative for Microsoft. Do
you think that with key date Nov. 5th, that this announcement could occur
on that date and trigger the massive sell-off that you are looking
for?
HW: Perhaps. It really doesn't matter to me what the terrestrial
trigger is as long as the market turns south. The fundamental cause
is extreme overvaluation.
READER: Henry depends on where you are in the market ARBA JDSU EPNY
RBAK CDRS BSQR RDWR all the NEW NETS making tons....they will
be good until the square then buying opptys again for Y2H (Y2 Hype)
HW: I hope you are not negatively surprised next year.
READER: In your view, is this a time to (a) exit the stock market
[from longs, I presume]; (b) place tight stops or at least tighter stops;
or (c) short the stock market? I suppose that (c) and (b) could imply (d)
short stocks on tight (er) stops.
HW: We believe November can be down as much as 2000 points. Watch
for our Key dates. We are short and will continue to remain so unless
stopped out, in which case we will reshort for those dates.
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