1. ALAN GREENSPAN MARKETS
2. STOCKS OF THE WEEK
3. QUOTES
4. WEB SITE
5. CORPORATE ASTROLOGY
6. LETTERS
Last week Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan suggested investors should take a hard look at whether they are underestimating the level of risk incurred in buying shares. On October 12, The 'Day of Six Billion,' The New Market Zeitgeist was DOWN. Also given that November is a strong down month astrologically, there should be little doubt that "The party is over". While a few drunken stragglers may stick around, most sober guests know it is time to leave.
What of the next 30 days? Does 10,000 hold? Nah! Does 9350
to 9500 hold? Possibly. How low is the forthcoming November low?
The bigs boys target of 9500? Alan Greenspan's fair value target
of 8000? Or our December 31 trading target of 7001.67?
One of the cardinal rules of trading is to know your EXIT strategy as
well as your ENTRY price/time.
WHAT IS YOUR EXIT STRATEGY FOR YOUR STOCK MARKET PORTFOLIO?
When coffee futures spiked 40% last week, I did not need to wait for Friday's PPI report to know that the October 11 Jupiter (up)/Neptune (to the sky) square was working. No longer content to exclude "food and energy", some economists are proposing excluding "food, energy, cars and cigarettes" to prove that there is no inflation. Will only telecommunications and computers be left in the CPI? Hell no! We also have the beginning of wage inflation here e.g. auto workers. Like my pumpkin patch picking this weekend, there are two distinct trends: One is that pumpkins costs are up 25% from last year. The other is I was able to buy baby pumpkins for .50, while last year the cheapest were $1.
What to do when bonds reach 6.40? Start your due diligence by visiting Bonds Online. This is a good introduction to the world of bonds and includes a basic Q & A. You also can obtain quotes on thousands of municipal, corporate, zero coupon, mortgage and treasury bonds.
KEY DATES: October 19 November 5, 14
DJIA:
S1 10,000 S2 9800 S3 9650 Resistance 100200
BONDS: 6.09 to
6.52
2. While Wednesday may provide some rapid trading buys, so called:
"Selecting buying on dips,"
the bigger picture is "Selection Destruction preceding Widespread Destruction".
I do not forget that DJIA 10,000 was ridiculously overpriced.
It will become the intermediate term DJIA ceiling, either this Fall or
Winter.
Consider IBM, perhaps the single best DJIA 2000 stock to own. (While
MO at 32 is currently better value, there are serious conscience issues
and its astrological star is far less bright than IBM's in 2000)
Currently priced at 105, IBM is only worth $45. It may or may not
hold 100. But better to either wait for the November crash, or buy 1/3
at 80, 1/3 at 60 and 1/3 at 45, if given the chance.
I advise checking Morningstar's
business valuations before investing long term i.e. until the Jupiter/Saturn
conjunction of May 2000 - a time of cosmic value.
We are updating UpStars/DownStars on a weekly basis. Until November,
our stock of the month club has been replaced with the trading stock of
the week pick assuming any relief rallies will last that long.
Given the Saturn/Uranus aspects in November to be followed by Y2K fears,
why be in a rush to buy? Of course tax selling is creating
LONG TERM bargains. The question is when to buy and when to sell.
This depends on whether you are a trader or a long term investor. If a
long term investor, then stocks such as Service Corporation (SRV) which
have corrected 80% are possible candidates, although I would prefer a full
90% drop. Similarly, Covance (CVD) represents real value and partial
accumulation could be justified. However, such stocks may have to be held
as long as one year to receive only a positive 10% return, assuming a 2000
point drop in the DJIA next month. More on this along with the falling
US dollar later.
3. "The market is collapsing; what we have here is the makings
of a bear market," said James Caron, Treasuries strategist at Merrill Lynch
Government Securities.
HW: No surprise.
"There's major support at 6.31 percent; it's a trend line going back
to 1981," said David Ging, Treasuries strategist at Donaldson Lufkin &
Jenrette Securities Corp. "Then there's nothing until 6-1/2 percent."
HW: All I have been asking for is 6.40. You can have the rest
David....
"The bull market is based on the assumption that inflation is declining,
interest rates are declining and earnings are rising," said Michael
Metz, portfolio manager at CIBC Oppenheimer in New York. "This week, we
got question marks on all three."
HW: These false assumptions are another reason why the current
Bull market is full of Bull.
4. Shortly after signing up our latest CorporateClient, DCHT, I had a vision: I was mentioned on the cover of Time Magazine December 2001 as the astrologer behind these technology powerhouses... and they listed a number of my increasingly successful client base. We shall see. Anyway if you wish to follow up on this alternate energy SRI hope for the future, see our post in progress: DCHT Story
5. If you are natally strong in Neptune and Pluto, surf thewhispernumber.com
6. READER: Why don't you make the CURRENT issue of the WSNW available
for Silver Subscribers on the web site?
HW: Good suggestion. We will be doing this on Mondays.
READER: As an IHI investor, I want to know if IHI is factoring
this information into their market offering. As you have been seen
their operation, can you confirm whether or not they are aggressively taking
these scientific projections into account in their business plan?
Is their product designed to be 'earthquake-resistant'? Will it sell?
HW: The demand is overwhelming. IHI housing is not a hard sell,
but simply order taking. Earthquake resistance is just one of many disaster
related reasons. Think hurricanes and Florida and the Bahamas as an example.
READER: What is the Precise Birth data for principles of Stox.com?
HW: We have posted this on The
Stox Story.
READER: What do you think of gold stocks recent pull backs despite gold's
stellar performance? The crucial factor is hedging. Which is why I haven't
invested at all in ABX--they are so heavily hedged that the gold price
movement will have little impact on their earnings. I favor NEM, although
they also stupidly went in for a hedge recently, although not for a large
proportion of their reserves....I also read that HM squared its hedges
just before the big rise....maybe that's the best long term bet.....Your
thoughts on this issue are appreciated.
HW: We continue to buy HM and ABX stocks and options. What
you say is true, both companies should replace their financial astrologers.
ABX is the blue chip that fund managers will buy if/when "the shit hits
the fan." I might sell it when above $28 or when Gold reaches $350 OB.
The question is whether $325 is a temporary ceiling or just a resting point
with Gold rising to much further in 2000. We are betting on the latter
scenario.
HW: I listened to your talk on the web today. You briefly mentioned
IHI. I watched it get hammered yesterday too. Any reason?
Has progress on the facility been slowed (stopped)? When will
we move along? I have some champagne to buy.
HW: We continue to believe IHI will (eventually) go way up and am looking
to accumulate a little more or this undervalued stock. It is being
hammered because the broad markets are ready to collapse and there is and
will be panic selling. Fortunately this is happening on almost non-exist
volume. Factory progress as usual is steady, but awfully slow.
The excellent thing about your astrology is you can predict things ahead
of time whereby technical programmes await confirmation hence always a
bit late- I think this market has everyone baffled.
HW: Yes, plus MOST of the time our forecasts are right on target,
even if sometimes early.
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