1. ASSET INFLATION
2. VALUE REVIEW
3. YING YANG WEB SITES
4. QUOTES
5. LETTERS
Next Week I will be in Vancouver consulting with clients and will NOT
issue a WSNW report on the 13th.
Our next WSNW will be September 20.
Will he or won't he? The big question will be answered October
5. Until then, it is a trader's market.
Advice to investors: STAY HOME!
MANY Fed watchers were surprised that they are finally beginning to watch Asset Inflation, e.g. stocks and home pricing. I believe the reason is obvious. Alan, thinking he might not be reappointed as Fed chairman, did some house shopping recently and was as shocked as former president George Bush was upon his first visit to a supermarket checkout counter. More than goods and services, asset inflation, as we have been saying for years, has been Real and substantial [> 5% annually]. Had he been a premium subscriber to WSNW, he would have known this long ago....
The NY Times is raising its daily cover price from 60 to 75 cents, a 25% increase in time to celebrate the second pass of Jupiter square Neptune October 11. The last such increase was 5 years ago, when it was raised 20%. Given the influential nature of the Time's readership, Bond bulls beware!
New York Stock Exchange directors pushed back the timetable for a possible
initial stock sale to next year from Thanksgiving, to allow more time for
"resolving regulatory and tax issues."
Think, if this IPO can't get off the ground, how strong can the US
stock market really be?
9/9/99 is an interesting date numerologically, and a potential pre-millennium computer bug warning. Unfortunately for bears, we don't expect much of a Y2K-like strike. 9/9/99 isn't a "string of nines" as the myth goes, but really "09/09/99". Next Thursday, we may see a rally in computer stocks, assuming computer systems ARE working at that time.
Key Dates: Sept 7, 10
DJIA: 11,100 to 10,800-
2. Morningstar rates over 7,500 American companies relative to their industry peers, by growth rate, profitability, stock price and overall financial condition. I personally like their stock valuation section. Not surprising, is that most stocks are way overvalued. The closer we get to May 2000 (Jupiter/Saturn conjunction), the more likely portfolio values will return closer to their VALUE pricing. What would this do to YOUR portfolio?
I strongly recommend researching your portfolio to avoid any unpleasant shocks. The following is a sample of Morningstar's stock valuation rating of some widely held shares of 9/3/99 morning BEFORE the mad rally!
Appraisal Ratio > 1.0 = Undervalued Appraisal
Ratio < 1.0 = Overvalued
AOL
$ 91.31 Business Appraisal $15.23 Appraisal Ratio
0.2
American Express (AXP) $137.50 Business Appraisal
$74.75 Appraisal Ratio 0.5
ATT (T)
$45.00 Business Appraisal $35.46 Appraisal Ratio
0.8
Disney (Dis)
$ 27.75 Business Appraisal $14.26 Appraisal
Ratio 0.5
IBM Stock Price
$124.56 Business Appraisal $48.75 Appraisal Ratio
0.4
Microsoft (MSFT)
$ 92.56 Business Appraisal $23.83 Appraisal Ratio
0.3
Yahoo (YHOO)
$147.50 Business Appraisal $15.22 Appraisal Ratio
0.1
Our August Stock of the Month Club Picks:
Covance (CVD)
$16.06 Business Appraisal $14.96 Appraisal
Ratio 0.9
Ha-Lo Industries (HMK) $ 6.06 Business
Appraisal $ 9.03 Appraisal Ratio 1.5
BTW: In some accounts, we bought more Covance, as in retrospect it would have been a better September rather than August Stock of the Month pick.
3. YIN/YANG WEB SITES
Stock are massively undervalued: DOW
36000.
Stocks are massively overvalued: CRASH
OF 99.
4. "What is so intriguing is that this type of behavior has characterized
human Interaction with little appreciable difference over the generations.
Whether Dutch tulip bulbs or Russian equities, the market price patterns
remain much the same." Alan Greenspan on last year's crisis.
HW: What about this year's crisis?
"This is going to be the way we spend the rest of the summer and the
fall -- getting good economic data and wondering what the Fed is going
to do about it," said Joseph Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Gruntal
& Co.
HW: Is this THE final stage before denial turns into fear?
5. READER: I'm looking an astro-finance news group. Can you recommend
one?
HW: Try astrofinance@onelist.com.
READER: If you are expecting today to be a down day, how come your calendar
isn't red?
HW: We only highlight the clearly important down (red) and up (green)
days on our trading calendar that we have calculated at least a month in
advance. In our daily market commentary, we give our view of each
day incorporating astrological and technical data as of 9am.
READER: I would like to know if you would advise an investor to sell
url at 5.00 or hold on to it?
HW: This depends on whether you bought it for a trade or an intermediate
term investment. If an investor, I would wait until $6.50 to $7.50 before
any selling.
READER: I only have 1000 shares [of Stox-V.URL]. If you think this good
gains coming, I would like to invest about $10,000.00 dollars total.
HW: I am very close to the company, so it may be hard for me to see
the forest for the trees. The energy enthusiasm of their staff is incredible
and infectious. As I have not yet completed my due diligence, you
may wish to wait until reading my report, which I will post after my Vancouver
trip next week. However, what I have seen so far is very promising and
shares under CD$4.25 seem rather cheap to me, especially as CD$4.00 seems
to be establishing itself as a new floor.
READER: I am really worried. Every time I punch in the IHITF ticker
on the main Yahoo site, for the first time ever, it keeps coming up no
such ticker. I have been in every day and it always shows when I punch
it in -- has anything happened ???
HW: "IHITF.OB" is the new Yahoo symbol for IHITF. I would recommend
using a better source for delayed Canadian quotes than Yahoo. The single
best source is - no surprise - www.stox.com. Otherwise, I prefer
www.bridge.com.
READER: I've noticed that many of your readers of WSNW have been asking about when and how the eclipse will manifest itself. I think most people thought the crash would happen as soon as the sun was hidden.
Jonathan Cainer, in his website http://stars.metawire.com/ stated the
situation quite succinctly:
"MOST people in Britain watched the recent eclipse of the sun without
the aid of special glasses. Despite the numerous official warnings, they
took occasional, tiny, brief glimpses. Even this much exposure left an
impression on their eyes. Astrologers believe that an eclipse is also capable
of leaving a 'symbolic' impression. It 'leaves a mark' on the sector of
the zodiac that it occurs on. For several months after, any planets passing
over this point will 'trigger' the sensitive spot in the sky, producing
a further eclipse-related drama."
I thought it might help to remind people of the intricacies of trigger
events etc... as is explained in your book.
HW: I agree.
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