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1. THE FALL
2. SIX HAPPINESS PORTFOLIO
3. INVESTORS REVIEW
4. MICROSOFT PART III
5. LETTERS
As I will be lecturing in Corning, NY this weekend, we are releasing Wall Street, Next Week early.
While mutual fund managers will try to keep the market above 7908, it is only a stop gap measure. Despite an increasing low interest rate environment, poor corporate earnings prospects WORLDWIDE dominate. The US dollar is toppy, and more and more smart money is pouring into Europe and out of the US. Needless to say, as the fall begins Wednesday, October is coming soon after. So while cigar manufacturers could get a quick pop from the Clinton' escapades, most US firms will not. In fact, expect the opposite as Starr continues his mutli-life quest against his nemesis Clinton.
Behavioral psychology charts the swings of human emotion -- hope, fear and greed -- from the extremes of irrational exuberance to the depths of despair. We have seen the former but, so far, only mild discomfort on the part of most investors. We certainly haven't seen the disillusionment and despair that was rampant in late 1974. Unless you live and invest in Indonesia, Japan, Russia Venezuela etc.
There is real pain. Morgan Stanley’s index of emerging stock markets has fallen 41% in the last six months and is now back to where it stood at the start of 1991. Almost eight years of gains have been totally erased. Imagine a 4000 DJIA or 2000 DJIA. How would you feel? With an increasing worldwide slowdown, US markets will fall and I mean FALL in line.
Key dates: September 23
DJIA: Sell 8000, SELL 7908
2. It is painfully obviously that Hong Kong will have to devalue to 1-10. Until then, HSI 7500-8000 is a level at which almost all Chinese stocks should be sold. Of course, you should continue to avoid the property and banking sectors TOTALLY until a devaluation.
At Hong Kong 6,000-6,500 and after a devaluation, consider gradual accumulation of:
Hong Kong Shanghai Bank, Hutchinson Whampoa, HSBC Holdings, China Telecom, Shanghai Industrial Holdings, Oriental Metals and Founder (Hong Kong)
3. We are pleased that our top choice of the G7 nations, Italy’s MIB30, is in first place (in local currency terms) with a year-to-date gain of 26% through Aug 31, while our least favorite Canada TSE 300 is last at -18%. In dollar terms, the rankings among G7 countries remained the same: first MIB30 +28%, and last TSE-300 –25%.
4. The forthcoming Microsoft trials are reminiscent of the 1906 Standard Oil.
"I was the first person to publicly compare Microsoft to Standard Oil. Both companies sought and used monopoly control over a new industry critical to the national's economy. And Both were head by men - John D Rockeller Sr. and Bill Gates- who would stop at virtually nothing to gain when they had sought." -Mitchell Kapor, founder of Lotus.
HW: Its time for the new Teddy Roosevelt - Bill Bradly, are you listening?
Being that the last Eclipse was [I thought] to lead the stock market lower and in fact there was a Historic Advance Day I have interest to learn how that is justified from an Astro point of view.
HW: WRONG. If you study recent history, you will note how the GULF WAR ECLIPSE led to a 115 point INCREASE and several others have as well. Eclipses do provide high VOLATILITY. IN 1996 100 POINT moves, in 1997 200 POINT moves and as much as 400 POINT moves in 1998. As a general rule of thumb, they highlight a major change or crisis, and 2/3 of the times are negative.
I am inquiring if it would be possible to do the astrology on a company "Bombardier" trading on the TSE. This company appears to be well managed but I am not sure if I should incorporate it into my stock portfolio. Here in Canada, we only have a 20% foreign content in our RRSP. Therefore, I am looking for additional strong Canadian companies.
HW: We charge $3,000 for such reports. Speaking generally, outside of natural resources for 1999 [and IHI], there is little we really like in Canada now. Sorry.
I am a novice in the stock market. I don't have $500,000 to invest in AFUND. However, I have a substantial amount sitting in CD's. How can I find a fund or brokerage house that uses astrology? I am an astrologer, and after reading your book, I have several years of study before I can take total responsibility for my own investments. I think astrology is a necessity in a down market. CD's don't keep one above the cost of living.
HW: Two points: we now offer 2 options for $100K+ accounts and for the next month or so, cash is just fine.
Also Jerry Favors uses the Bradley indicator as well as Greg Meadors.... I try to use Gann and Fibonacci - next target week ending 31 October 1998...does not look good....
HW: I agree.
Q: I have this data for NYSE: 5/17/1792 10:10 am New York City. Is this correct? If not please send correct birth data for NYSE.....Thank You
A: There are several different opinions. While not the one I use, it is a popular choice.
Q: If the Dow continues to fall, what should I do to protect our investments?
A: This is an excellent question and one I have been continuously addressing since this summer. The specifics, of course, will depend on the nature of your portfolio and its objectives. Some of the following strategies could be helpful:
1. DO NOT PUT FRESH MONEY INTO THE MARKET.
2. SELL STOCKS THAT ARE MOST AT RISK SUCH AS INTERNET STOCKS, OR INDEX FUNDS WHICH WOULD ONLY GO DOWN IF THE DOW GOES DOWN.
3. REDUCE HIGH RATE DEBTS SUCH AS CREDIT CARDS AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE CURRENT LOW INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT BY REFINANCING YOUR HOME.
4. DIVERSIFY INTO SOME LONG TERM DEFENSIVE HOLDINGS SUCH AS BONDS, GOLD, ENERGY, NATURAL RESOURCES OR INTO HARD ASSETS SUCH AS REAL ESTATE.
5. LOOK TO OWN STOCKS THAT WILL DO RELATIVELY WELL IN A POOR STOCK ENVIRONMENT SUCH AS IN THE HEALTH CARE SECTOR, UTILITIES OR NON-CYCLICALS SUCH AS FOOD OR COSMETICS.
6. AVOID MOMENTUM STOCKS BUT ACCUMULATE VALUE STOCKS, I.E. COMPANIES WITH REAL CURRENT AND FUTURE EARNINGS.
7. DO NOT PUT FRESH MONEY INTO THE MARKET.
FROM THE INTERNET : "When Gephardt pounds the podium and denies ahead of the impeachment vote that the vote will not be based on the polls, "methinks he doth protest too much" (thanks Shakespeare). In reality, whether Bill is forced to step down or merely receives the slap-on-wrist censure will be decided entirely upon the polls. "
HW: IN REALITY IT IS MORE DETERMINED BY BILL'S HOROSCOPE WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE TO PUT IT MILDLY FOR THE NEXT YEAR. THERE ARE OTHER ALTERNATIVES, BUT THE ODDS GREATLY FAVOR HIS NOT COMPLETING OFFICE.
A: Could you include your reco as to whether to hold OXHP thru the turbulent months ahead in your commentary? I am long at 6 1/4.
HW: Depends on your view of the markets and why you are holding OXHP.
Obviously, it reached our 25% targets quickly and today it reached 35%.
If you are a short term to intermediate term trader, you are probably already out.
If you are an intermediate term investor, then you are holding for 12 in 12 months.
"Can you afford NOT to have financial astrology in YOUR future?"
Please send your comments, questions and suggestions to Letters,
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