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1. A RECORD WEEK
2. INVESTING
3. TRADING WITH NEPTUNE
4. LETTERS
1. A TITANIC, now the highest grossing film EVER,
B. DJIA 8500+,
C. March 12/13 coming soon,
Therefore, 6500 AFTER 8500.
Last week's Solar Eclipse was profitable only in the Gold sector, and briefly in Bond shorts as it powered the Dow past the 8500 milestone. On the bright side, we are up nearly 1% from 11am Friday's birth of the AFUND MAD BULL Tech Fund. Our profit objective is 10%+ a month for two months. Weekly postings to be in the new model portfolio area of our web site.
It is not unusual for the last stages of a bull market to have repeated "short squeezes" as we have been watching (at times painfully) in February. Different forecasters I track have given this past week up until the middle of March as a probable market high for astrological or technical reasons. We have allowed for the market conditions uptodate (8510) in our planning. Should however, the market not correct back to our trading zones below or continue much higher, then we will not be happy campers. Our best guess for a 1000 point drop week if in 1998, has been the second week of March, the best day March 12/13, the precessed anniversary date of last year's March 11 high. Until then, we continue to warn: "Beware of the Mad Bull Disease."
I especially liked the closing of last week's BARRON'S, For All Our Wizardry, The Heavens Still Rule "Far better, it seems, to watch the skies. And to consult an astrologer." Well said.
DJIA 7908-8510
BONDS: 5.94-6.10
BUY: Gold, IHI
SELL Mad Bull Tech Stocks
2. INVESTORS: maximum cash allocation recommended until May 4; the watchword is EXTRA Caution. We continue to advise maximum cash allocation and profiting taking up to the tax level to which are you are comfortable.
Note: This month's Stock of the Month Club pick, IHI, International Hi-Tech Industries has a price target of 50%+ appreciation within 6 months, not the usual 20%, which can be a daily hiccup on the VSE.
Own ANY of the 6 stocks we are shorting in the AFUND MAD BULL TECH FUND? Here are some reasons to worry:
AMZN : Amazon will NOT win the war against the 3B Bookselling GIANTS: Barnes and Noble, Bertelsmann and Borders.
AOL: America OnLine - Where's the Beef?
HWP: Hewlett Packard - Super strong 1998/9 competitors: Xerox , Compaq + soon to be reinvigorated Japanese (Hitachi, Sony et al.)
INTC: Intel - IBM/AMD and if Compaq markets 500/600MH Alpha properly, a REAL loss of market share.
MSFT: Microsoft - The Old IBM disease in full bloom and hasn't done anything new AND successful for sometime. Eventually someone besides me is bound to notice. After all, you can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time....
YHOO: Yahoo - 1000X earnings? 10,000X earnings? Sure thing!
3. One good source of trading ideas besides astrology are stock rumors. Since rumors are ruled by Neptune, they may be "unreliable" and we recommend story stocks be confirmed technically or astrologically for profitable trading. An excellent source of rumors is the web site called naturally STOCK RUMORS. Here are 3 fresh UP FOR SALE rumors from them for traders to muse on:
Rumors about Source Media (SRCM) $12 3/16 putting themselves up for sale are being whispered on the street. Sources say a deal could fetch $18-$21 with light mention of America Online (AOL), as a possible interested party. We also hear the Money Store (MON) $24 1/4 has cancelled their meeting with Montgomery Securities, leading sources to believe an announcement may be forthcoming.
Finally, we are hearing a rumor that a deal is about to be signed regarding Tel-Save Holdings (TALK) $27 1/2, but there is a delay in negotiating a fair price. Possible suitors include AT&T, GTE, LCI Comm., or Qwest Comm. A deal price could be anywhere from $35-$50.
HW: Dangerous play as TALK was panned in this week Forbes for good reason and I agree.
For the OTHER side of Neptune trading visit FINANCIAL SCANDALS web site. Classic Financial Scandals: BCCI, Barings, Daiwa, Sumitomo, Credit Lyonnais, Bre-X, and others.
For a third Neptunian trading idea, we like OIL this week, as last week, at ~15:25 OB,
4. Q: Could you comment on the Bombay Stock Exchange or all of South Asia as the cycles are different from those of Southeast Asia.
A: India of course has great potential, but not of personal interest at this time as I find superior risk/reward elsewhere.
The stock market is said to climb a wall of worry (Is that why they call it Wall Street?) and it is obviously doing so now. However, one wonders if things aren't getting critical. Domestic troubles will eventually color the collective psyche, as will international troubles.
HW: Eventually? Not this month? :(
Q: I just found your web site while trying to research Rebecca Nolan and Arch Crawford. Am I missing something or are you in big trouble with your Dow Shorts at or below 8000? Also, aren't you getting killed on your selling AOL too? Looks like I was being unrealistic on my hopes of better advice via the stars. So, it seems the astrologers are ALL seeing a huge drop in March, 13th? March 19th? This consensus spells Raging Bull - or does it?
HW: First, Rebecca Nolan has agreed to write a column for us on our site so your search was not totally in vain.
Second, for us, this is just one play albeit a BIG one, and the US, one market in our global hedging strategy. However, this is one of 5 Big moves and accordingly are positioned with 5 (eventually 6) short positions. By the end of April, we expect to be eating our deserts, not our hat as you imply.
I think it's crazy too...but a million loonies outnumber you and me.
HW: What, this is a "numbers" game??? I thought it was a competition where the last man standing wins?
RE: The Titanic market: Yeah, but there's only enough life boats for half the people ... and unless you're in first class (holding non-margin accounts) you'll be held back at the gates until the boats are filled ... the rest die of over-exposure, right?
HW: n/c.
Q: The last 3 eclipses netted 2 up and 1 down in the Dow. What is different this time with the 2-26 & 3-12 eclipses? It seems you are looking for both being down.
A: Sun Pluto square on first; second preceded by Jupiter Square Pluto and Pluto SR suggests trend changes. It take a LOT to turn mania into value. I believe the February and March eclipse pair can AND will do the job.
I think astrology is a necessity in a down market. CD's don't keep one above the cost of living.
HW: They do in down markets and nothing wrong with CD's for the next 2 months. I believe astrology is a necessity in BOTH up and down markets - otherwise I would be a very heavy drinker!
Mr. Weingarten: If we need to get to the lifeboats after 26 Feb, how would you suggest we do this? Buy silver quarters and small gold pieces? Stock up on food, vitamins, and thermal underwear?
HW: Too early for that and hopefully never.
HK market was strong last week as rumors that interest rate would be lowered pushed the index beyond 11,000. I think the market can challenge 11,700 or even 12,000 before mid of March. According to the wave principle, we are at the final upward wave. After that, another huge downward movement is coming. It seems that the period around 3/12 (144 trading days after last year's top day) is very likely to be the market top. I can foresee the April Hang Seng Index put options will be very profitable. Any comment about it?
HW: Lower interest rates AND defend the Hong Kong dollar? NO CAN DO!!! Property stocks are a disaster in the making. March or April puts depending on the risk/reward you prefer.
INTERNATIONAL HI-TECH INDUSTRIES INC. (IHI) announced that the installation of the wall and column panels has begun at the site of the first manufacturing facility in Delta, British Columbia. "We fully expect to begin shipping product from the factory in mid-July", said President Roger A. Rached.
HW: Yes, this was one of the reasons we choose IHI as March Stock of the Month. It is such an OBVIOUS countdown to July!
Are there any markers, either technically or astrologically, which favor an S&P high now with the solar eclipse - or a high at the later lunar eclipse in March? My timing work would favor the later high but I am aware that the pattern could break off earlier.
HW: Agree second is stronger, and that oil and gold another way to play as well as S. & P shorts. Surprisingly, we are shorting bonds to 6.10, so no "flight to quality" ? That could suggest a top, not a crash.
What happened to the eclipse effect? I know we have reversed the day of the week seasonalities--had been up MTuW, down THF--so can we expect a down Monday?
HW: Patience. The first eclipse was a silver bullet to weaken the market technically. The next one March 12 destroys it. Watch the Gold Market as to what may be REALLY happening.
See you next week - Dow 9000 by then...
HW: Its a bet!
"Can you afford NOT to have financial astrology in YOUR future?"
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