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1. TITANIC MARKET 1. The Titanic, 3rd largest grossing movie of all time, is an apt cultural metaphor for today's economy. It may soon hit an iceberg and begin sinking. All the warning signs are being ignored by the captain and his crew.
FIRST ICEBERG: Solar Eclipse February 26 We cannot too strongly warn ALL to head for the life boats.
Will it be 6500 after 8500, but not before? While we ignored several strong technical and short term astrological factors by shorting early, this has allowed me to sleep soundly at night. Last summer, I wondered how anyone could not see that Hong Kong would crash before at the end of August as we forecast. We exited the party a little early, but no one complained afterwards. How ALL do not see the dangers ahead in the March/April option period is equally puzzling.
Our 5/6 short position entry is planned between Monday's Sun - Jupiter conjunction (possible top +/- one day) and Thursday's Solar Eclipse and/or DJIA ~8000.
Key dates: February 23 and 26 We are pleased to initiate UK coverage England by Christeen Skinner. Note forecasts for the FTSE often apply equally well to the SP500.
2. Assuming the US does attack Iraq, Short into any euphoria. If Saddam is murdered, Short within two to five days by which time the world markets may realize the consequences. However. close any long oil contracts shortly after the first bombing. Stock traders may wish to buy IOM 6-8 , after a retest of its 52 week low. 3. INVESTING OXFORD (OXHP) revisited. Even though we rate OXHP as undervalued, and an ideal take over candidate, we have changed our minds and NOW plan on selling it when the opportunity arises.
4. I had no idea you meant 1000 DOW in a day. Hmm, that's a toughie. If it ever happens, I sure want to own OEX puts! A trade of a lifetime that would be. I don't know if you want a specific date, but as for the month, I would say November. More 1000 Point drop readers guesses posted at CRASH.
5. Q: On your Web site the CRASH OF 199X PART XII has a countdown clock ticking away. How does one read it? At this point it reads, "T minus 077:15:20:24". Is that 77 days, 15 hours, 20 minutes and 24 seconds? What is it a countdown to? Armageddon? 1000 drop in the DJIA? The second coming or the first, depending on your point of view?
A: This is a NASA style count down clock of days, hours, minutes and seconds. It is a clickable image - to find the answer to your question, click the clock.
Q: In your opinion what are the celestial bodies that most affect the bond market?
A: Classically, Bonds are ruled by Venus and Mercury rules Stock trading.
Thanks for your note on the Titanic. See this web page for similar analysis of the same subject: www.marketscience.com.
Henry: I think we hit the iceberg, but nobody realizes it. Or maybe this is the market that God himself couldn't short....
HW: I believe the communication officer is drunk again.
Tell me more about your prediction. I thought you said we would see 6500 before 8500. What's the deal... Tell me your call.
HW: The major call that the market would head south BIG TIME in the March/April option time period. A corollary was 6500 before 8500. That we are now higher makes the call even more likely. As it seems not enough investors were listening, we are contemplating a higher public profile. :)
I agree with you on the oils and gold and the market, down to about 7800. Sadly, I bought my OEX puts too soon, back around 8150, and only have 2 days to go.
HW: It is only sad if you don't buy March/April puts as well. It is ok to lose money in trading, as long as it is not your principal trading capital.
Q: It seem to me at the market's currently lofty valuation, it would make sense to hedge somewhat through placing some money in a fund like the Prudent Bear fund. Do you have an opinion or view on this particular fund or this type of fund in the current market?
A: I am more familiar with the Rydex Bear Funds and selling AMEX SPY. All can offer good downside market protection without the time decay of options. Check with your financial advisor which is the least costly and most appropriate for you over the next two to three months.
My preference for indicators is not stars, astrology or the super bowl, it is hemlines!!! The new Spring lines are awfully short. :)
HW: No, they are just around the knee. Above, if good knees...below if bad knees. This means you should hold good stocks and sell bad ones. Of course, consult your financial astrologer to be sure which are which!
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4. 1000 POINT DROP
5. LETTERS
Second Iceberg: Lunar Eclipse: March 12
DJIA: 8060-8510
Note: War is only a 50-50 possibility at this time, as the Saudi's and Kuwait's have not agreed to pay for it this time,
A good story stock is IVX, with plenty of good rumors circulating.
NOT at THESE prices. NOT at THIS time.
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Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS McGraw Hill, TRADING BY THE STARS (99) May
15, 1998 Sixth Annual Astrology & Stock Market Conference NYC
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