1. ASTRODATES
2. MARKETS
3. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
4. ASTRONUT
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS
1. 1/8 Lunar Eclipse Full Moon 3:32p
2. 1/19 Sun enters Aquarius 7:16pm
3. 1/24 Chinese New Year (Snake), New Moon 8:07 am and Saturn SD
4. 1/25 Jupiter SD
2 out of 3 aint bad
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia says the nation's economic
growth would slow to a moderate pace in 2001, while the unemployment rate
should rise and inflation is expected to fall.
Polled by Business Week, Brokerage House analysts’ favorite 2001 industry
groups are Technology, financial stocks and health care.
Will stock portfolios return +10%+ next year? Very possibly many will. Still, we recommend caution and avoiding much margin buying. January is especially tricky as it celebrates national bankruptcy month, a Lunar eclipse and a presidential inauguration. As we continue to see more traditional investing, value (Saturn) AND Growth (Jupiter) will both matter.
THREE MAD MONEY PORTFOLIOS
Speculators and gamblers ONLY: Choose either of the following group
of four stocks for a very aggressive January play. Buy your basket of stocks
with your mad money that you would ordinarily spend and lose in a weekend
in Las Vegas or Atlantic City only. Sell between the January 9th Lunar
Eclipse and January 24 Chinese New Year of the Snake, or 150% profits;
whichever comes first.
Elink (ELNK), Etoys (ETY), Priceline (PCLN) and Mcafee (MCAF) or
Absolute Future (AFTI), Mountain Province (MPVI), Stox.com (V.URL)
and Xybernaut (XYBER). or
Celsion (CLN), International Hi-Tech Industries (IHITF) Stem (STEM)
and USIX.
Personally I am not playing this game this year, but instead raided
my children’s penny bank to buy a little more IHITF.
TRADE GROWTH BUT BUY VALUE
My Scorpio mother called me on the winter solstice to ask me why I
had not sold her ATT stock last year. She then agreed to increase her stock
portfolio (she was almost entirely in bonds and cash) to include IBM and
Cisco. I also bought her Compaq at 15 for a January trade and look to buy
Pfeiffer (PFE) upon weakness. Her last similar directive was to insist
that she exit ALL stocks two days before the October 1987 crash.
I took her Winter Solstice buying as a confirmation signal to recommend
to that everyone buy stocks. FYI: Had ATT not lowered its dividend, it
would have been the highest dividend yielding Dow Stock. This Dow Dog could
have risen dramatically from Value Fund buying. Fortunately, Winter
2000 is their key time, but I wonder if their board will first rearrange
upper management.
Remember all those companies that blamed their poor earnings on the Euro. Now that the Euro (as predicted) has increased 12%, they had better either show some profits or fire their currency hedge department.
Key Dates: January 9, 10
DJIA: Range bound Trading
NASDAQ: More bullish than bearish until 2750
EURO: Value Pricing: .93 to 1.05
3. The new CMB/JPM that begins trading on January 2 does so under not very auspicious stars. Interest rates will go down next year, but loan defaults will rise. Chase will need more than a year to integrate and not destroy the JPM jewel. We begin this merged entity with an underperform rating.
Goodyear (GT) downgrade from strong buy~16 to market perform at 24-25.
Computer Associates (CA) upgrade from market perform to outperform at 21 OB. (Value pricing 28)
4. Remember Viagra? Brazil's AmBev soft drink and beer giant AmBev is gearing up to seduce U.S. palates with exotic flavors straight out of the Amazon jungle. The company is planning to invade the U.S. market no later than mid-2001 with a soft drink made out of guarana, a jungle fruit believed to have aphrodisiac virtues. After “appropriate” testing, I am ready, willing and hopefully “able” to upgrade this stock from outperform to Buy next Spring.
From Robot Toy Pets Capture Japan's Fancy: Interactive animal toys are going to be hot this shopping season. "With cruel murder news and other sad news going around, people want to have these electronic pets to fulfill emptiness in their hearts. People want companions which don't require any responsibilities to owners but still make them smile." said Toy Journal's editor Ibuki. While long term this may become a disturbing trend for Pet food makers, we see this trend boding well for applied robotic companies like RoboVision (ROBV) and International Hi-Tech Industries (IHITF).
5. "As I look out, I don't see anything to get really passionate about
in the Microsoft story near-term."
Rick Sherlund, analyst, Goldman Sachs
HW: Short Term I agree, but you seem to be overlooking its horoscope
aspects 2nd half of the year, which ARE quite favorable. Therefore, the
closer it gets to $40, its value pricing, the more desirable a purchase
it will become.
"We reckon that the stock market development in 2001 will be defined
more by fundamentals and less by hope. The fears of a hard economic landing
will prove to be exaggerated."
Alfred Roelli, investment strategist, Deutsche Bank
HW: In 2001 I agree, but the problems are more likely to be severe
in 2002, if at all.
"How do you compete against a gorilla assuming no regulatory or heavenly
help? The answer, of course, is that you must become a gorilla."
Sanders, AMD
HW: A better answer is to change your assumptions and hire a financial
astrologer!
6. Investing
in the New Millenium for the big picture
investing lessons to learn from the market's behavior in 2000
Yours truly on Yahoo! FinanceVision December 26 interview.
7. READER: Recently you made recommendation of buy in mid-December
and sell in early (first week of January). Is that recommendation (sell
in early Jan) still good? Thanks.
HW: Clearly the buying part is right on target, especially with WSNW
Alert 48D [2000 WSNW
Tracking]. I suggest you continue to read Wall Street, Next Week to
see if/when we change our minds.
READER: You suggested getting out of JDSU "early January if not before".
Doesn't Jupiter go direct the last week of January, and wouldn't that be
good for telecommunications and networking stocks? Don't both Saturn and
Jupiter go direct end of January, making all the planets in direct motion.
Should all indexes get a bounce from that event?
HW: Probably, but JDSU is worth less than $35 and is not one of my
favorites with its P/e over 100. This reminds me of earlier discussions
of Yahoo when it first broke $60 on the downside.
READER: Are you predicting a recession for US next year???
HW: We still forecasting 1.2% GDP 1st quarter, 0.45% second quarter,
third quarter unknown.
You know the old story - smaller cos follow the large cos in a rally
and fall first in a decline - do you think a recession would have that
much affect on IHIs price next year?
HW: IHI production and sales are the only important things.
I continue to strongly believe all shareholders will be VERY happy over
the long run.
READER: Is the 26 Dec. key market marker/Zeitgeist, an indicator for
the next market cycle- up to late January? AND/OR is it a model for the
Entire 2001
HW: Primarily up to the January 20 inauguration, but some of its affects
could last up until the Summer’s solstice eclipse.
READER: I have taken a mountain slide holding onto Corning. What are
your thoughts on it soon recovering; and would you sell (probably near
the bottom?) and pick some better bargains or do you think GLW has a good
chance to recover in the near future?
HW: The last time I looked was in 1997 when lecturing at Corning New
York. Everyone at that time was in the dumps and we said the company would
change direction and would go gangbusters by 1999 and early 2000.
Today, while down, it is still very expensive, with a P/e of 75. I
generally don’t recommend buying and holding anything over 33. Short
term the markets will be up. If you need a tax loss take it next
week. Otherwise, I would consider selling it in January and not rebuying
until it drops at least 35% from current levels.
READER: Are you expecting a rally into Jan 8-9th lunar eclipse?
HW: Before the ides of January, yes.
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