1. MARKETS
2. THIS AND THAT
3. POLITICAL ASTROLOGY 101
4. QUOTES
5. LETTERS
HOW HIGH IS UP?
HOW LOW IS LOW?
Nasdaq 2500-2800 before New Year's? In 2001? Or will Nasdaq climb to
3650-3900?
As traders, be prepared for both possible scenarios.
This is DAY TRADERS HEAVEN: INVESTORS STAND ASIDE. After the
20th, there will be an “all clear signal” into a post ides of November-Thanksgiving
Day rally. Until then, remake your dream wish buy lists and fire
at will, i.e. whenever your individual price targets are reached.
UPSCALE CLOSEOUTS
A replacement for a local .88 store that went bankrupt, Closeout Connections
offers upscale closeouts. This is what investors should be on the
lookout for in 2001 – up to 50% discount off list, i.e. current pricing.
Internet stocks such as Yahoo may well see 33 (currently 56), but it is
unlikely that GE or Microsoft will drop in half. Still, a 20%-40%
drop respectively from current pricing is hardly out of the question. The
question is whether it’s this year or next. We were happy to buy
Dell on Friday, after its fall. This is one example of what we recommend:
buy after “bad” news, not before!
Numerous gold traders believe that until the trend for a stronger U.S. dollar has a meaningful reversal, gold prices will remain under pressure. Looks to me like the secular US$ rally is over, having ended with two peaks, one in May and one 6 months later. Bargain hunting in gold and the Canadian dollar is once again permissible.
KEYDATES: November 16, 20
DJIA: S1 10,500 S2 10,265 S3 10,000 R1 11,000
R2 11,1100 R3 11,265
NASDAQ: S1 3000 S2 2800 S3 2500 R1 3400 R2 3500 R3
3600
GOLD: Trading Buy
DELL: BUY
2. Monday at 38, we downgraded Philip Morris [Mo] from a “buy” to an
“outperform”. This was done within 10% of our 2001 Target of 42.
Equally important is increasing short term risk in international law suits.
There is also significant long-term risk now that Air France is banning
smoking from its flights!
Note: this rating is only theoretical, as SRI leanings do not permit
our funds to buy this stock.
AT&T is our most significant portfolio loss this year. When it broke
32, I knew there could be trouble. I assumed their board would act. Now
that it is under 21, it may drop to 18 before year end. This would be a
major buying opportunity as T’s horoscope is very positive in February
with new partnerships or take over bids (from BT, DT, NTT etc).
After all, owning ATT used to be like owning gold; it seems it still
is! :)L
Shiseido, Japans leading cosmetic maker, fell into the red for the first time in 55 years. That is yet another confirmation of our view that Japan Inc. is in serious trouble and should be avoided short term. However, it is on intermediate term accumulation watch. See our 2001 Market Forecasts to be posted shortly for timing details.
3. TV networks declared George W. Bush the president-elect, and then
took it back during a bizarre night of election coverage that left everyone,
except astrologers, flabbergasted.
Political Astrology 101: Mercury changed direction at 9: 28pm November
7!
The next day, Sun square Uranus indicated excitement and a bizarre
zeitgeist with the Florida election recount.
Republican senator loses to dead rival in Missouri: The late Gov. Mel Carnahan beat out incumbent Republican Sen. John Ashcroft for the US Senate seat from Missouri. This raises a future hope: Imagine voting your favorite politician, dead or alive. You could vote for Abraham Lincoln or JFK. Then certified psychics would be installed and channel their directions in Congress or the Oval Office. Could be a major improvement over today’s lower caliber political choices. J
4. “Inflation has pulled a vanishing act. Businesses can't raise their
prices. Competition is intense."
Robert Dederick, economic consultant, Northern Trust
HW: That is the party line, but does not mesh with reality. However,
it does look like the Fed will not act next week given the election uncertainty.
"I think people might be a little too optimistic about what Bush can
do for Microsoft. It's not like he's going to get into office and drop
the antitrust case against Microsoft the next day."
Dan Ascani, president Global Market Strategies
HW: Bill isn’t selling another 5 million shares for no reason.
We may well see 50 again before 100.
"The market is unpredictable. Yesterday people thought the (U.S. presidential)
election would be over today. Today people are beginning to get worried
about the fact that it may be a long time,"
Kate Warne, market strategist, Edward Jones
HW: Not so. Many astrologers predicted it, e.g. see below for one sample
"NOV 7 = US Election Day! Mercury backs into Libra for One Day, Stations,
and goes back out. This day will NOT go as expected. Mars 135 to Uranus
while Sun parallels Uranus = Something really strange & unusual will
make this day remarkable."
Arch Crawford, Editor, CRAWFORD PERSPECTIVES
URANUS aspects indicate that WHATEVER YOU EXPECT IS NOT EXPECTED, i.e.
everyone thought Bush would win the popular vote and did not.
PS: Just wait until November 20TH
"The uncertainty (in the election and the tech sector) was a good test
for the market. The panic dumping and subsequent recovery is a successful
test of the market."
Gerald Vincent, portfolio manager, Davis Rea Ltd
HW: We agree short term. This suggests future ceiling testing.
5. READER: WOW!!! Have you ever seen anything like this before? Who
do you think will win?
HW: That is old news. Internet bookmakers William
Hill have opened a book on the outcome of the next US Presidential
Election and make the Republicans 8/11 favorites to win in 2004, with the
Democrats quoted at even money.
READER: I went to your web site and really like it. However, there
are two terminologies that I do not understand. Could you explain:
MIT and OCO
HW: Please check our FAQ
on
our website. MIT is “Market if touched”; OCO is “Order cancel Order.
READER: This has been talked about for along time but Clinton’s signing
of the debt relief proposal authorizing IMF to sell gold to fund debt relief
is a short-term negative psychological indication for gold. Be careful
if you have positions
HW: Good advice, but we are buying gold this week mostly for anti-US
dollar hedging as well as traditional seasonal positive factors.
READER: Gold mining stocks have taken a real beating. Is it time
to load up on gold?
HW: We are buying gold next week. However, many gold shares could
be dumped for tax losses in December. If so, we buy again.
However, this advice depends on the composition of your total portfolio.
READER: Ok.... I bought Dell at 23 5/16 this morning. Where is your
recommended sell point? You said it's worth about 30 per Morningstar, and
the 50-day moving average is at about 30. Do you think that would be a
good target?
HW: Yes, that is our 25% profit target. Alternately, 28 for short term
traders and 32 for long term investors.
READER: Would you still buy CPQ at 22/23 levels as well as Dell?
HW: Yes, I would, as my intermediate term target for CPQ is 28-32.
But as per WSNW BUY Alert 47, we bought both this past Friday.
READER: [Re: WSNW
Alert 47] I am in total agreement, though I jumped in a bit early with
my 200 QQQ purchased at 74 3/4.
HW: I was buying all day, both before and after WSNW Alert 47, although
mostly afterwards. There was no rush. Remember, use appropriate stops and
take profits early.
Beginning 1/1/2001: Gold will be $1500 one year, $2500 two years
and $500 quarterly.
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