1. MARKETS
2. QUOTES
3. ON THE WEB
4. LETTERS
CASH IS NOT TRASH: OUTPERFORMANCE CAN BE A NEGATIVE RETURN
Over the next month, Buy and Hold mutual fund investors may have their
cherished beliefs sorely tested. Will individual investors be happy
with a negative return as long as it out performs benchmarks? Time will
tell: May is coming.
Earth Week (April 16-22) is preceded by Mars and Saturn conjunct in
Taurus ON Saturday. Ozone in the arctic region decreased about 60
percent between January and mid-March. The drop in the ozone over the arctic
also has caused a thinning of the upper atmospheric layer through northern
Europe and the United States. Full recovery of the ozone layer is not expected
for several decades.
In response, we will be highlighting more SRI companies of our Neptune
Fund here shortly.
Friday's market marker day augurs the next two week's price action will
be Down, Down, UP, Down.
Will the DJIA break 10,000 by stops (to 9800) or seriously closer to
value (7001.69)?
Will NASDAQ 3400 hold? Nah. Will NASDAQ 3000 hold past May? Not
my bet.
KEY DATES: April 17, 18
DJIA/NASDAQ: DOWN, DOWN, UP, DOWN
2. "The Emperor Has No Clothes. This musical fable does not question the new technology, just its valuation." Sam Zell
"What we have learned is that the market can go down 13 percent in a
day and it's not the beginning of the end of the world.''
Duncan Stewart, technology fund manager Tera Capital
HW: True. Is it 14% that is the magic number? Or is it 15%? 20%?
25%?
"We are not ready to cherry-pick in the tech sector. It doesn't
matter that they've declined 20%. They are still too expensive. They
would have to fall 70 or 80 percent before would even get interested."
Eric Mill, Portfolio Manager Heartland Value Fund.
HW: Amen
3. Reader: Great
interview
HW: Yes, I agree Michael Pinson did a good job interviewing me on Internet
radio.
Need a fast response to a pressing market question, but your financial
astrologer's line is busy due to markets crashing?
Ask I Ching.
Of course, this sage advice is also recommended for serious life questions
of all kinds.
AFUND Client WAMEX as of April 17, 2000 will activate its corporate website -- www.wamx.com for interested investors.
4. READER: Why are mkts down good for u?
HW: 1) I am bear. 2) I have recommended to some clients to be short.
3) All clients have LOTS of cash to buy. 4) We predicted it and 5) I expect
to have new clients because of it.
READER: I believe you are referring to May 3rd 7 planet line up in Taurus
at the beginning of which the Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter
and Saturn are ALL in Taurus which is both the sign of the New York and
Tokyo stock exchanges. This is the first of several BIG planetary alignments
in May. And this portends...what?
HW: I take this in context with the Saturn Square Uranus and Jupiter
Saturn Conjunction, also May 2000. We believe this ALL signifies
a significant correction in Technology (lower than current prices), and
a SHIFT away from Momentum investment towards Value. After May, investors
will once again routinely question a public company's profit potential.
Additionally, during this month, BORING will be more desirable than Technology.
READER: Hey Henry, do you know what's going on with UNDR?
HW: I believe it will be trading again soon. In May, it has strong
Pluto (death/rebirth) aspects, so we plan to wait and see.
READER: Would it be realistic to have a $1000.00 nest egg to use for
trading and subscribe to your news letter? What is a minimum for
starting to trade and make some money? I already have an online account
with a major broker.
HW: While some people believe $10,000 is enough, I tend to be conservative
about this and believe $25,000 is more appropriate to balance risk and
reward appropriately.
READER: Do you follow any UK stocks?
HW: Currently just Anglo American (AAUK) and HSBC (HBC). Our rule of
thumb is that we must find at least a 10% premium to domestic stocks e.g.
PEARSON (PRSNY) while a good media company, is no better than the NY Times
(NYT). As to the broad English market overall, between 2000-2001,
we find better value elsewhere.
READER: I was wondering what you held in the Astrologer's Fund. I own
XXX - do you think I should sell them to buy the Astrologers Fund?
HW: This is not a public mutual fund. Sample holdings of Jupiter, Neptune
and Saturn are posted as well as UIT's. If you transfer stock, we
make a decision whether to sell it, not before. Whether to invest
with us is a decision we cannot decide for you as obviously we are somewhat
positively biased.
READER: I presume when you were in Vancouver you went to see IHI. Will
you be writing an update about it?
HW: I saw the continuing progress that was reported in their April
13th press release. They will be doing monthly progress reports which
will help all investors better value what I perceive as slow (although
not as slow as before) steady progress.
READER: How to read your option recommendation for HWP? Is there recommendation
to buy stock @147.5 and sell @ 151, and the same time you recommend to
buy puts at < 7, with stop price 5 and target 11?
HW: As to HWP, we are at this time selling, NOT buying. All sorts of
traders follow our advice. Option trading tends to be most profitable
when stocks are ridiculously priced and/or just before a trend change.
Day trading or positional trading a short or a long has different risk/reward
parameters, so we could buy at different prices and times depending on
probability.
READER: I hold NOKIA, ERRICSON and SPRINT. I have noticed that whether
Nasdaq or NYSE are either up or down these stocks seem to have their own
mind. What are you opinions on that?
HW: Even granting a 300% market share and profit increase over the
next 18-24 months, I believe ALL are greatly overpriced. We will
see after May if the market agrees.
READER: I thought your monthly picks are to be held either until they
hit your target or long term for investors. This past weekend, it
sounded like you are selling. I'm confused!
HW: All hell is about to break loose. Did we sell enough?
Do we have enough cash? We don't sell everything, but we have sold stock
in many accounts. We are also holding stock for the future. Now we
buckle down and will weather the storm and be ready to buy later.
READER: WAMEX was a really good call. Wish I bought more, but
hindsight is always terrific. I held on to a few shares, and since
the split, I have a few more. Do you think it wise to hold for the
longer term now, since it seems the markets will all come tumbling down
soon?
HW: I am holding, but don't know if this is wise or not. Time will
tell. However, we may sell some if it moves up/down significantly
after May.
READER: When you think time to buy put for the May market down trend?
Will you give any stock recommendation which will have the greatest potential
for puts?
HW: Read our Wall
Street Alerts and Daily
Market Commentary.
READER: Wow, u see [Nasdaq] under 3,000 soon?
HW: Patience
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