2003 MARKET FORECASTS
It is NOT WHAT you know, but
WHEN you know it.
© Henry Weingarten Last Updated:
Most of the following material has been serialized in
WALL STREET, NEXT
and our subscriber
premium channels. Our next semiannual
update will be posted after our
11th Annual Astrology
and Stock Market Seminar
May 16-18, 2003 in
New York City.
links that are prefaced with a S: are
There are four primary celestial and terrestrial phenomena affecting world
events and global markets in 2003:
The second and third
Jupiter/Neptune oppositions Feb 16 and June
August 30 Jupiter/Uranus Opposition,
- November 23, 2003 Total Solar Eclipse,
on the War on Terror and the 2004 US Presidential Elections.
Four Big Investing
1. US DOLLAR REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE IN 2003
Everyone knows now that the US dollar has already peaked.
While Europe's ongoing malaise and Japan's long suffering economy make
it possible that it could be a few months before the dollar drops more,
investors need to diversify their investments globally.
The average American has less than 5% of his assets in foreign holdings.
The inevitable decline in the dollar’s value makes foreign
investments more attractive. Stock prices are cheaper by most
valuation measures: price to earnings, price to sales and price
Intermediate term, we expect
interest rates to increase due to some economic growth,
a lower US dollar and future inflationary worries.
One lurking potential danger is that it may
become necessary for the FED to defend the US
Our recommended US equity portfolios
international stock allocation is 25%.
2. JUPITER/NEPTUNE THEME: HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE?
Let the good times roll and will
it be back to "What ME worry?" The trend
of more realistic stock valuation from "new
economy" to more traditional levels that began with Jupiter/Saturn
conjunction in 2000 may become temporarily
lost with this new cosmic zeitgeist. Initially, it
was expressed by investors having MORE (JUPITER) ANXIETY (NEPTUNE):
Richard Berner, chief US economist
at Morgan Stanley, unknowingly made an incredibly accurate
astrological statement of this zeitgeist: [Brackets mine]
From the perspective of the economy,
uncertainty [Neptune] is the enemy [opposition]
of Growth [Jupiter]. Roughly just before
Neptune went direct October 20, it was More (Jupiter) Uncertainty
October 10/11 we saw the one example of Expansion (Jupiter)
without Limits (Neptune) with a quick 20%+ rally.
Note: December 4, Jupiter went Retrograde and will return Direct on
April 4, 2003.
We previously spoke of more and better (Jupiter) Wine (Neptune). Today
there is a global wine glut because of over planting and
over exuberance, thinking that we were never going to have
enough grapes. Remember, Neptune also co-rules OIL!
3. A WAR TIME ECONOMY: GUNS AND CAVIAR REDUX
4. THE END OF THE HOUSING BUBBLE
August 1, 2002 Jupiter left the sign of Cancer
[home] for Leo, the first of several astrological factors
that will loosen astrological underpinnings of the current
real estate bubble. Housing, along with Commodities and physicals,
is now viewed as an Asset Class along with Stocks, Bonds and Cash
by many investors. Positively, there is the enjoyment factor: most
woman would prefer to have an additional 100K in a home than in a
portfolio. Housing also appeals to safety concerns in times of trouble,
but home buying is cooling. Record low interest rates are soon ending.
Other negatives include the ratio of home prices to home rental rates
is more than 12% too high, while the value of individually owned residential
property to deposable income is at a 50 year high. Classically, the
Real Estate weakens 12-24 months after a market collapse. If individual
stock prices can return to pre-1998 pricing in the Fall of 2002, why
can't housing drop 10-35% [depending on location and individual property]
over the next 6-18 months? June 2003, Saturn enters Cancer. Let's
not forget what Saturn in Gemini, e.g. Communications did to telecoms.
Hopefully it will NOT be that bad: Favorable tax treatment along
with continuing demand could continue to help make this a slowing market
with a soft instead of hard landing.
Global Stock markets in 2003 will be
determined largely by answering two
Q1: How will Bush's
Iraqi crusade affect Oil prices and help or hinder the War
Q2: Who will be helped/hurt the
most by the lower US dollar?
HOW HIGH IS UP?
HOW LOW IS
2003 POSSIBLE TRADING RANGES
7240 to 10,660
VALUE WITH GROWTH
will no longer be quite as
important for global investors when investor's
fear fade away. It continues to be a time for growth
leadership. However, we advise caution and recommend
an investment strategy paradigm of
BUY and HOLD Growth stocks with at least reasonable
valuations based on current and future profits. Do not ignore
pension liabilities or the expensing of options in these calculations.
Moreover, international money flows
will no longer exclusively favor the US,
with Asia, Europe and even emerging markets garnering more
future global interest. However, note by the
second half of 2003, value will no longer under perform as in the first
Classic "Buy and Hold" is passé: Stock picking , more
than sector membership and even Market timing will rule in
2003. Successful investing will depend on knowing:
When all the good news has already been factored
into the share price, at what price is the valuation
just too high?
When all the bad news has already been factored
into the share price, at what price is the
valuation too cheap?
Any and all investing profits need to be protected against
future bear assaults in 2003. We advise
against returning to past excessive speculation
as investor fear recedes.
more (30% of portfolio) and
take/protect profits at 15%-25% profit points
for long term non core holdings.
LEARN THE LESSONS OF 2000, THEY WILL REPEAT IN 2003:
SHOULD BUY AND HOLD STOCKS IN
2003 THAT ARE:
1) Buy carefully and when stock valuation becomes
super frothy again, SELL.
2) Be careful about
owning stocks that are “priced to perfection”, they
can only disappoint.
3) It is NEVER “different
4) Ultimately, profits
1) Profitable, well managed companies,
2) H1 P/E* under
25 for Growth and under 18 for Value; H2 P/E* under 22 for
Growth and under 16 for Value.
3) A PEG <1.5 or undervalued
by 10% or more.
*After allowing for pension liabilities and expensing
I GLOBAL INVESTING
ASIA & EUROPE
THE UNITED STATES
The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of
EUROPE - A global alternative
to the US
- GERMANY- Market
- Market perform.
- We rate the CITY a strong outperform, especially
after most Iraqi issues are moved off the front page.
- FRANCE - With
Jupiter in Leo, France should modestly outperform.
- GREECE -
The ATG is a potential trading accumulation
ahead of the 2004 Olympics.
- SPAIN - Trading
opportunities as Argentina crisis recedes.
- EU EXPANSION
countries, the Czech Republic,
Poland, Hungary, Cyprus, Slovenia, Latvia,
Lithuania and Estonia remain on Watch as they
are likely to compete inside the EU's single market from 2004
on. However, there is little for foreign investors to buy outside
of the banks. In the non-financial area, many of the best companies
are likely to be bought out, rather than going public. Finally, shares
prices there already reflect European entry which means the "easy"
money has already been made.
WSNW subscribers can review our favorite
Dow Jones Stoxx 50
- While a surprise
to many "experts" that Canada lead the G7 economies once again, the news
is out. While recently downgraded by us, it does retain an "out perform rating."
for 2003. The Canadian Dollar is still a bargain
and will outperform the US Dollar by more
than 3% in 2003.
- Buy only stocks that clearly benefit from NAFTA, are in
a favored sector like entertainment (TV) or likely to
be a takeover target like Banacci was by Citibank,
AHISA by MetLife or Bital by HSBC.
STATES - Still overvalued versus
global counterparts. Many former investor favorites
will disappoint as investors sell rallies to "get even".
US Bonds will be far less attractive,
especially after Q1, especially compared to Quality Corporates. The US
Dollar remains a potential time bomb: It is
no longer as safe a haven given budget deficits and the
War on Terror. However, since one can trade stocks
here for 10-25% appreciation/depreciation
a day/week, this remains TRADERS HEAVEN.
- Intermediate term investment opportunities
in Japan and India. Long term, China
and Asia will be the fastest growing area in the world 2010-2030.
- S: JAPAN
- It is important to realize that there is a recovery in
the Japanese economy taking place. We expect to see a REAL resolution
of their long term banking crisis in the coming year! Therefore,
the Nikkei is now a long term buy to
16,000 using the 2004-5 time horizon. We see currency
value in buying Japan should the Yen be weaker than 131 [Fair value ~126,
the old Japanese BOJ worry zone vs.118, the 2002 worry zone]. While we
still like exporters that will benefit from a cheap Yen,
e.g. Sony (SNE), Matsushita (MC) and Honda (HMC), domestic
industries are no longer to be shunned. JAPAN INC. [EWJ]
is one of our favorite 2003/2004 countries, especially if
the Yen weakens again to130 and more. Our mantra on JAPAN
INC. is "You have Japanese products in your
home; why don't you have Japanese stocks
in your portfolio?"
- HONG KONG/CHINA - 2008 Olympics
notwithstanding, the fact is that
many of the mainland's industries are
a mess and its stock market is overloaded with poor quality
state owned companies. "Officially" China's
economy continues to grow at more than 7% and will
be the third largest economy in the world before 2020, after the US and
Euroland. Yet its public debt is over 100% GDP if you include
"off-balance sheet" accounting. Until this is rightly addressed,
we continue to recommend great caution. Hong Kong also
remain unattractive, especially as fundamentals often seem to matter
little on the Hang Seng, and its stock market acts as close to legalized
gambling more than any other major one in the world. For Asian
investors (only), we recommend it for accumulation under 9500.
On the bright side, Hong Kong benefits from a spill-over effect
from Chinese mainland's trade. The weakening US dollar also is another
favorable factor for Hong Kong's export growth. Despite a far
better economy, we also remain reluctant to invest in
Taiwanese markets unless compensated for potential
"war like" conditions in the future.
KOREA- We continue to like blue chip giants Korea
Telecomm (KT) and Samsung Electronics
(SSNGF). A MAJOR peace dividend is expected
next year or in 2004. Like Taiwan, this
is a largely a bet on the US technology sector.
- Global investors are beginning to warm to computer and pharmaceutical
blue chips. IIF or IFN are two closed
end India funds, and the best way for US investors to
invest (not trade) in India. This is for long term investors
AUSTRALIA - We remain mildly bullish
for 2003 given our forecast for an appreciating Aussie $.
We maintain our "out perform" rating country rating but are downgrading
their LPTs (Listed Property Trusts) to market perform.
NEW ZEALAND- Last year's Air New Zealand's action
to strip out business class seating, meals, alcohol
and soft drinks from its domestic flights was telling.
Economic growth will remain slow for a variety of factors, not the least
of which is weakness in dairy export prices. However if you wish
to retire in this lovely country, note the NZ 40
has strong long term support around 1900.
for savvy investors
- S: ISRAEL
- Israel's technology sector
is desirable given
its highly skilled labor force and favorable
tax treatment. Unfortunately, it is best to buy
only when there is blood in the streets,
which is now all too often. Buy export quality
with the TA 100 Index under 360. From mid to late 2003
on, this market could enjoy some good peace dividend rallies.
- Many high risk investors primarily bet on the energy sector here,
e.g. OGZPF, SBKYY, SGTZY, TNK and YUKOS. Now investors are motivated
to buy further a field. Still, after a healthy double in 2002, due to
positive economic performance and more rule of law, some caution is
- BRAZIL - Assuming Lulu
keeps his economic promises there is plenty of opportunity,
especially for quality exporters such as CVRD
thanks to the cheap, but stable Reais currency.
As with most of South America, accumulate on
weakness only for appropriate multi-year
long term investment portfolios.
Naturally the drastic devaluation in Argentina's peso is helping
its export industries. A short term trading opportunity
for smart money and longer term for
multi-national corporate investments.
- CHILE - Once again it is the "safe" favorite of Latin
We continue to recommend caution for emerging
markets unless you monitor them very closely.
in 2003, the global investing landscape
may be dramatically different.
WSNW subscribers should periodically
S: AFUND GLOBAL 12
- for our
favorite global blue chip long term investments.
Traders believe "Making money in
the market is all about Timing".
The "Buy And Hold" climate we've had
in the US stock market is
long PAST HISTORY. Since 2000, it is now
a "Market Timing" and “Stock Picking”
environment. Markets reward best stocks
that have Value AND Growth. Short term corporate profits
disappointed on the short side due to ruthless competition
for much of 2002. Now corporate profits for
well managed and sufficiently capitalized companies should
Despite the fact that we do live in interesting
times, short term we repeat last year's mantra:
VALUE plus GROWTH IS
BEST and Trade for
short term profit 15-25% moves.
The current Zeitgeist continues to highlight
UNCERTAINTY. Gold therefore is likely to shine early
in the year.
that will benefit from an improving economy. Furthermore
many have not only written off good will, but pushed losses
out of the way in order to clear the deck for 2003.
- We WILL
have a slow economic recovery into 2003.
However, public enthusiasm to spend,
spend, spend will be subdued until job uncertainty
still in a financially weak position with little pent-up demand.
Our GDP forecast is just under 3% in H1 2003.
Stock selection is paramount and will count
more than sector rotation and even stock market
ADVICE: TAKE/PROTECT PROFITS VERY EARLY INTO THE
YEAR. It could be a cold winter for stocks.
Given that the traditional "Buy and Hold" investing strategy will continue
to underperform, we recommend trading 50% (up from 30% in 2002) in "investing"
portfolios in H1 2003.
The big cosmic paradigm
is the three passes of Jupiter
opposing Neptune that began in September 11,
2002 and ends June 3, 2003. Obviously
this can be good news for both the biotechs and
drug industry as well as for gaming
stocks. We are looking to natural gas, wind power, media
and entertainment sectors to outperform.
Jupiter went into Leo August 1, 2002, cosmically
assisting the entertainment industry.
We expect solar energy and fuel cells to
begin to get more respect as they are targeted for
mainstream America in 2004. It is an open question
whether it will be American companies or foreign
companies like BP, Kyocera and Sharp that benefit
most. President Bush: are you listening?
is followed by one pass of Jupiter/Uranus in August
2003, by which time electronic companies
e.g. MC, SNE, Samsung and PHG will
be in heaven thanks to increased home theatre sales,
flat panel TVs and eventually HDTV. Also
around this time, interactive TV and Video on demand
will begin to develop more widely, obviously helping AOL
and MSFT among others.
Bush's Progressed Mars (War)
is increasingly prominent in 2003 = an expansion
on the war on terror. At the same time, we
will also see in 2003 Saturn activating the US
Sun. Given that Saturn represents "reality", paying the piper
is not likely to be overly favorable for US markets given the
US budget deficit from a weakened economy, the War on Terrorism and
We also expect to see more high profile Bush administration
We note the Solar
Eclipse of November 23, 2003 as also pivotal
to certain countries economies and will be discussed
in our May 2003 Market Forecast update
LEARN THE MARKET LESSONS OF
2000, BECAUSE THEY WILL REPEAT IN 2003.
2005: The fifth year of decade has been positive since 1881. We
see no reason at this moment to disagree with history.
29, 2006 is a Total Solar Eclipse.
December 2007: Jupiter will be conjunct Pluto.
The low point of the nodal cycle is reached in 2008.
This will be followed by Jupiter conjunct Neptune
in 2009 and the next epic shifting
planetary configurations in 2010/2011 of Jupiter conjunct
Uranus AND Jupiter opposition Saturn preceding the
December 21, 2012 Mayan end date.
Sector based investing
is continuing to replace country
based approaches to global investing.
millennium future themes are: Biotechnology,
Hydrogen/Solar Energy, Robotics,Wind/Water
and Nanotechnology (2004/5) .
The old themes of Technology,
Communications and Health
Care still matter.
WSNW subscribers: please note we
update our coverage on the following industry
sectors on our premium Silver posting area:
S: HEALTH CARE, S:
MINING, and S: REITS.
Our 2003 favorites sectors
and select Pharmaceuticals
Gas and Successor Energy
- Water, Wind and Wine
- Our three favorite aerospace companies:
Boeing (BA), Bombadier (BBD.A-TO) and United
favorite drug stocks are Johnson and Johnson (JNJ),
Pfeizer (PFE) and India's Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY).
The best biotechs to buy are those with
revenue generating products increasingly close
to launch. The easiest way to play this sector is
to either market the market leader Amgen (AMGN) or to buy a basket
of 20 with the Merrill Lynch Biotech HOLDRS (BBH). We recommend
buying under 90.
- Jupiter entering
Leo August 1, 2002 helps the entertainment
sector. Obviously, this includes a large
variety of stocks ranging from Video Games such as Electronic
Arts (ERTS) to the big four electronics companies, Philips
(PHG), Matsushita Electric (MC), Samsung and Sony (SNE) are another.
Flat-panel plasma and LCD televisions will increasingly be among the hot
sellers for manufacturers and retailers of consumer electronics products
in 2003/4. Even if times get tougher, and people cut back, they
still will desire entertainment. Also we will periodically trading
buy Best Buy [BBY].
Select Media stocks, e.g. AOL and Yahoo
(YHOO) are yet another. Fundamentally the fact that FCC is overhauling
media ownership rules in the US also for a wave of buying and selling
of media properties. Always profitable, rich dividend [7%],
Cedar Fair (FUN) amusement park is a good excuse to research your
Diversified Energy companies such as
BP and Norsk Hydro (NHY), are good long term
bets. Solar Astropower (APWR) will offer more
than 20% growth annually. Similarly, Japanese
companies such as Sharp (SHKAY) and Kyocera (KYO)
are partial plays of the solar sector.
Fuel Cell companies should be watched even though
they will not be profitable ventures until 2004/5 at the
very earliest. We also continue to look for opportunities
to trading: buy older energy technology
companies after big dips, such as Valero (VLO), Parker
Drilling (PKD), TransOcean (RIG) and Royal Dutch (RD). Among
gas producers: Burlington Resources (BR), Devon Energy
(DVN), Canadian Natural Resources (CED) and EnCana (ECA). One attractive
long term buy and hold is Statoil (STO), Norway's largest oil and gas
company. If you are bullish, industrial gases, like water and electricity,
are essential to modern industry. Track Praxair (PX) which is the largest
industrial gases company in North and South America. In low risk conservative,
dividend oriented portfolios, we often hold Con Ed (ED) and KeySpan (KSE).
- We find GOLD attractive,
especially in Q1 2003. Our price target of $350 could
be seen again in January 2003. It is also a good patriotic
US dollar hedge. We recommend Placer Dome
(PDG) short term, Meridian (MDG) and Barrick Gold (ABX) intermediate
term and Newmont Mining (NEM) longer term for core
holds in conservative portfolios.
- Wind companies, such as
Denmark's Vesta and Spain's Gamesa are suitable for intermediate
term SRI investment portfolios. The number three
and fastest growing beverage is Water, and bottled
water may overtake cola in the next three years.
The United Nations has declared 2003 as the International Year of Fresh
Water. North American bottled water is projected to grow
20% annually for the next five years. Big Euro food
groups, Dannone [DA] and Nestle [NSRGY], own
the largest brands and remain conservatively
profitable. However niche players like
Vermont Pure (VPS) and microcap ICBG are also worth
watching. German RWE and French SUEZ and VE for serious water
works. American Stat Water (AWR) is a good domestic alternative
in conservative portfolios. Constellation Brands (STZ),
FOSTERS (FBRWY), VCO and Vincor (VN-T) are potential "Peter Lynch"
beverage choices for heavier drinking investors.
my Moon in Libra, my Stock Selection
UP : strong astrological
I like to begin with one or more of the following 4 criteria:
A: CASH RICH, WELL MANAGED AND PROFITABLE,
B: UNLOVED BUT UNDERVALUED,
C: POSITIVE MOMENTUM AND MONEY FLOWS
D: GOOD HOROSCOPE OR IN AN ASTROLOGICALLY
1) Jupiter in Leo
2) Jupiter Opposite
Please note our past favorite trading strategy has been buying pre and
post news pops due to companies slightly outperforming repeated
earnings downgrades. This Winter/Spring our favorite strategy
will be buying quality momentum stocks for short term positional
choice are cash rich global blue chips.
These are companies that are prospering
by gaining market share and buying "cheap"
assets during this economic slowdown
over small and midcaps. These
are companies that tough out the near term
and become far stronger in the long term.
Our game plan is to invest conservatively,
but due to recent high market volatility
and increasingly compressed market cycles,
we now advise trading all accounts
more actively: an average of 50% of portfolio
holdings in H1 2003. Intermediate and longer
term European (and Asian) stocks may NO longer
rise and fall fully in sync with US markets!
This will happen more when the US dollar is generally
recognized to be in a secular decline.
WSNW subscribers should
periodically review our
S: AFUND GLOBAL
- for our favorite global
blue chip long term investments.
Six selected Investing themes
follow. For more and updates,
WSNW subscribers may
visit our AFUND
1. Expect a further drop
in US dollar of 2-6%, select Country I-Shares or Foreign Blue Chip
2. We always prefer
undervalued stocks, especially if coupled with
a yield greater than the classic value
buy signal of 5%, e.g. Utilities like Scottish
Power (SPI), Warehouse and Apartment Reit's like Apartment
Investment (AIV) and Sovran Self Storage (SSS) or the best
WRI (Weingarten Reality!). We also recommend stocks
that are 10% or more undervalued or potential M&A
acquistion candidates. Currently our favorite
out of favor stocks are Drugs and Technology (intermediate
term). Short term, we will be playing the oil and energy
sectors for this investing theme.
- Japan (EWJ): Yen weakness
- Honda (HMC), Matsushita (MC), Sanyo
(SANYY) and Sony (SNE)
- Canada (EWC): $CD strength - Celestica
(CLS), Inco (N), Placer Dome (PDG) and Sun
- France (EWQ):
AXA, Dannon (DA), STMicroelectronics (STM)
and Vivendi (V).
- United Kingdom [EWU] : BP
strength - BP Amoco (BP), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK),
Pearson (PRSNY) and Vodafone [VOD].
S: AFUND GLOBAL 12
FAVORITE 2003 stocks, i.e. hold/buy
on an intermediate-long term are Home Depot (HD), IBM and Johnson
and Johnson (JNJ). We do not expect too much
performance of Dow Stocks and Diamond
Index (DIA) for Q1 2003, after early January. Once
again, most Blue Chip stocks will still have to be
traded, not "buy and held" for better than 10%
returns in 2003. We would look to buy on good price points/times: American Express (AXP) [more H2], Eastman Kodak
(EK) remains strong H1 2003, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) [especially H2], and
United Technology (UTX).
MEDIA AND CONSUMER ELECTRONICS:
PREPARE TO PROSPER
Microsoft (MSFT), while a cash machine,
is both over valued and not well
managed. We continue to advise selling on strong
Disney will benefit
from Jupiter in Leo.
- A downgrade of MMM H2 is projected.
One of our two favorite sectors
to buy and hold into 2003 is Consumer
Electronics. Our favorite choices are: SONY
[SNE], SAMSUNG, PHILLIPS [PHG] and Matsushita
aka Panasonic [MC] and Best Buy (BBY).
Media brands to accumulate on weakness
are: AOL, Disney (DIS), NY Times (NYT)
Yahoo (YHOO) and Vivendi (V). All have strong
potential growth and increasing advertising revenues.
Two other tradable picks in this sector to watch are
Clear Channel Communications (CCU) and FOX.
5. FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
before we became one of the first
Apple dealers in NYC, we historically
have liked betting on emerging
technologies. This we recommend
doing in a basket of stocks, but not paying
too much of a premium over value for
longer term holding.
favorites sectors are:
APPLIED ROBOTICS: e.g. Int. Hi-Tech
(IHITF)* and ?
BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g. BBH, IBB, Amgen
(AMGN) and Enzo Biochem (ENZ).
ENERGY: e.g. Astropower (APWR)
*6. AFUND CLIENTS
Business Astrologers know
that the best way to predict
the future is to create it.
Disclaimers and with an informed but
obviously biased view, I am
doing my best to help create investor
wealth for client companies
we now consult for including
International High Tech Industries
[IHITF] , Mountain
(MPVI) and all Globestar Capital
companies beginning with Screenphone
Corp in 2003.
2, 1988 I have established
due to my knowledge of financial
astrology. While not perfect
as some critics would demand, my
precision and accuracy is appreciated
by many professional traders and
investors. As more of our forecasting
is now private and contracted to money managers
and institutional investors, it is
my intention to have other financial astrologers
and money managers contribute more on
my web site in the future.
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