1. ASTRODATES
2. DECEMBER MARKETS
3. BEAR THOUGHTS
4. QUOTES
5. WSNW MILLENNIUM SPECIAL
6. LETTERS
1. 12/7 New Moon 5:32 P
12/20 Jupiter SD
12/22 Sun enters Capricorn 2:44 A and Full Moon 12:31 P
1/20 Lunar Eclipse/Full Moon/Sun enters Aquarius
2. With two days left, it does not look like the market will drop up to 2000 points in November despite a third interest rate increase and Oil rising to 9 year highs and both Microsoft and IBM stumbling more than once. We predicated a general pull back based on 1) Rising bond yields 2) Rising oil prices and 3) Y2K. That is why I am feeling much like I did about the Gulf War, where we were right (within 4 hours), but the traders who thought it wouldn't happen made money.
What about December? Are stocks a "good buy" or is it "good bye"?
With five weeks to Y2K, the stock market is not behaving as if it is
scared. Will Y2K have NO effect in December? January 1? The stock market
has lost some of its upward momentum and some last minute tax selling is
due. Will investors wake up to the fact that asset inflation (stocks and
real estate) is beginning to spill over into good and services?
In what history may refer to as the "stealth" bear market of 1998 to 2000, we find a broad divergence between the Tech leaders and most other stocks. The former continues to go through the roof while the rest of the market remains dormant. More and more investors have decided to join the party rather than miss the action. Still, as I am sure you remember, from November 18th to December 18th of 1899, the Dow lost 23%. Will history repeat? Will 10,000 hold? Stay tuned.
KEY DATES: December 1
DJIA: 11,000, 10,000 tests
AXP:
Sell to 140
EURO:
Accumulate .99 to 1
3. The A-D line for the S&P 500 is near the Oct '99 low, and
the bottom 3 quintiles (by market cap) are already at new cycle lows....
Russell 3000 breadth is a disaster too. The only time in history when the
averages were making new highs while breadth was making new lows was in
1929. Food for thought.
HW: Agreed. Apples anyone?
http://www.prudentbear.com/manias.htm
HW: What me Worry? It's different this time!
4. "In the months and years ahead, it's not going to be as easy as it's
been with this consistent bull market. There's going to be quite a big
shakeout." Robert Miner
HW: Amen.
5. Our double-your-WSNW subscription offer ends Wednesday December 1. For $99, receive 6 months instead of 3; 2 years for $300 or 4 years for $500. Gold subscriptions are $300 for 6 months, $1000 for 2 years, or $1500 for four but only until December 1 and subscribe with the words: "Millennium Special."
6. READER: Just watching the business and market news shows you the
folly and pretence. There is no change in my accord with cautious liquidity!
HW: GMTA.
READER: What explains all the MASSIVE upward momentum? Kind of
the last great push before the final death?
HW: It is not uncommon in the final manic phase of markets or we could
be wrong and the US bull is not dying (yet).
READER: Do you look at the Germans DAX-Index and when what do you think
about it? I am using Elliott-Waves and I think we are in later stage of
a correcting pattern from the last years move 6225-3822.
HW: Cash rich German companies should slightly outperform on a relative
basis next year. For the US investor, long term Euro appreciation is a
plus. Still we are cautious until we have some sort of soft/hard landing.
READER: I finally come to disagree with your strategies, however accurate
your astrology has been. You have been on the dot in predicting many economic
and business events: the change in gold fundamentals, the Microsoft verdict,
inflation and interest rates etc. However, your bearish predictions have
proved to be wrong time and again for a simple reason-the stock market
has lost touch with fundamentals. My take on the market is now (finally)!
very simple-there is a ton of cash out there that is itching to get into
the market. Unless there is an upheaval (like a major war or calamity)
investors are going to find excuses to throw the cash into the market.
Any news will be interpreted favorably (for example, with the Microsoft
verdict all Microsoft's competitors shot up, but Microsoft didn't go down
even though it is a zero-sum game)! And the market's going to go up, come
what may!
HW: Time will tell. Our trading system is globally hedged has never
been static and we continuously revise our strategies according to current
and future planetary conditions. Microsoft may become the Phillip
Morris of 2000 and this essentially caps its stock price below 100.
READER: I thought the big news for this Saturn/Uranus square was the
UPS IPO. Here was the quintessential Internet company (handles over
50% of all ecommerce shipments) coming on strong. A message that
the future belongs to companies that create value and earn profits!
That the market didn't dive then didn't surprise me as this was only the
second leg of the square and sometimes, don't you think, we are given a
reminder of the message we are supposed to "get"... and then if we don't
"get" it, the final transit brings it all home in much more painful ways?
HW: It is getting potentially more painful with "hell to pay" sooner
or
later.
READER: I cannot believe that the Y2K effect on commerce will be negligible,
yet the generally fickle stock market investors seem oblivious to Y2K.
With 42 days left until the turn of the century, the Fed increasing interest
rates, and the general overvaluation of stocks, the market keeps climbing
higher and higher. It’s unbelievable! A DJIA of 7001 at year end I think
is now totally out of the question. Even your earlier prediction
that Yahoo will finish the year closer to $40/share than $400/share is
close to being wrong. Assuming that the Nov 22 thru December 3rd time period
continues to see the markets rise or at least not fall, when do you see
a market retreat.
HW: Ideally, before the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction in May 2000.
IF we are wrong about that, then sometime before 2008. :(
READER: Maybe 39D will be the winner!
HW: Its looking quite good and you may wish to double up on it, but
with a tight stop for the second play.
READER: As I read these comments from people, I think . . . . true,
I thought also that you were going to be right in your predictions and
put all my pension in money market. But as far as I see it, that
was MY decision, you didn't MAKE me put it there, I can't BLAME you for
the fact that I did that. People just don't take responsibility for
their own actions anymore.
HW: Many clients say they bought a stock if it made money, but the
broker sold it to them if it did not.
READER: I think the Maharishis with his Transcendental Meditation could
be throwing a monkey wrench in to this and keeping the markets up. TM is
very powerful all he needs is enough meditators in Fairfield Iowa. However
I could be wrong but I have used TM and I know what it can do.
HW: Perhaps but I would hope it is being used for world peace and consciousness
raising instead. Thanks for the renewal.
READER: My programme shows a sell as well however it has been
awfully wrong of late - it mirrored in agreement all your shorts of late
in the last few weeks so it must be just the insanity of the market not
our prograames that are wrong!
HW: My wife says: "The market does not want to go down." I have begun
using Manic V4 sell measures. I am not used to trading 100% insane
bubbles, but am rapidly becoming practiced in that unfortunately.
READER: February you mentioned more good news for DCH - do you think
they will go up again to $1.50?
HW: My initial trading target for DCHT was $1.25 to $1.50 by December
and $2 by February. It is also possible (and now my latest view) that it
could rise to as much as $5-8 between February to August. If I were
trading DCHT stock, I would now be a buyer in the $1.25 to $1.50 zone,
and not a seller, as was previously technically correct.
READER: Could you please give readers a very brief history of DCH and
why the share price came down from over 4.00.
HW: For a brief history, visit the DCHT
Web site. Its share price rose from 50 cents to $8, then gyrated a few
months and then fell back to $.75 last year. I would speculate DCHT
stock ran WAY ahead of itself and that investors sitting with 1000% profits
within 2 months sold big time.
READER: I took a profit yesterday. For all the critics of late I would like to thank you for the help you have given me. It is very much appreciated.
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