1. THANKSGIVING MARKETS
2. PRE-Y2K PART I
3. QUOTES
4. INTERNET SALES
5. WSNW SPECIAL
6. LETTERS
Given that events on November 5 and 16 happened as forecast and Oil is well above $25, we are "triggered" for a correction - but it has NOT happened (yet). What is currently holding the market above 10,000 is a mixture of GREED, STUPIDITY AND INSANITY on the part of investors.
THERE IS ASSET INFLATION! In addition to stocks, housing prices, the
classic sign of a market bubble, are exploding UP. Forget the inaccurate
government reports: look at your own REAL expenses- Oil, food, education,
entertainment, professional services such as health care etc. While
computers and telecommunications prices drop and you can substitute cheaper
goods and services, nonetheless there is REAL inflation. Wake up
and smell the roses, before it is too late.
YES, VIRGINIA, THE SKY IS FALLING.
Market players were initially unfazed by the possibility and then the reality of a hike in US interest rates Tuesday. After the Fed raised rates, we received an unusually high number of "I told you so" letters, an excellent contrary indicator that made us feel comfortable maintaining our bearish stance. I wonder who gets to laugh last when the fat lady finally sings? The FINAL MANIC stage of the market cycle is when everyone loses their heads. However, as we have said many times, common sense will prevail sooner or later the closer we get to the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction in May 2000.
Next Tuesday is a Full Moon and Wednesday Mercury is SD ahead of Thanksgiving. Then investors could abandon their Alfred E Neuman attitude of "What ME worry?" The day before and after Thanksgiving is traditionally UP, but perhaps not as joyous this time. The week after will bring more blood and an extremely High Risk to long term investing portfolios.
KEY DATES: November 23,24
DJIA:
10,500 TEST
NASDAQ: Down Trend
2. We have just finished our 2000-2001 forecasts, and believe this December is negative for some DJIA stocks such as American Express (AXP). From an investment viewpoint, we will not change our cautious stance, although for the first time, we may underperform market indices should the zeitgeist not change before the end of the century. However, we need watch the supernormal i.e. insane trading environment. We will short specific stocks such as AXP, which should do poorly in December from an astrological viewpoint as well as being so overpriced as to make a fresh investor think twice before buying. Alternately, we may buy December or January AXP put options when so inclined. Next issue: What to Buy Pre-Y2K.
3. "You've got the perfect backdrop to see further stock gains. We've
got a stable interest-rate backdrop and no inflation.'' Christopher
DiEnno, BNY Asset Management.
HW: No inflation? In the government's imagination or virtual
reality perhaps, but not in the real world.
"Traditionally, when the Fed tightens, the market goes down; why people
forget that I don't understand," Ray Remy, head bond trader at HSBC Securities
HW: What, it's not different THIS TIME?
4. In a bid to stop Internet companies from overstating their numbers, the SEC has asked US accounting rule makers to tighten standards governing the way such companies book revenue. Web firms revenue figures are for the total revenue for product sales even when they merely distribute products for other companies. They SHOULD be reporting revenue only for the distribution fees they get, according to this week's WSJ.
I wonder if reporting a 90% drop in sales figures will make any difference to investors, since most Internet companies will never make a profit. No doubt, Internet analysts will forecast that sales on the web will eventually go up more than 10 times, so not to worry.
5. We have been asked to do something special for our readership
for the next millennium. Initially I thought to give 3 months free for
renewals or new subscribers, but that seemed sufficient only for a next
century celebration. So for the next millennium, we are offering
a DOUBLE. Any renewal or new subscription before December 1 will
get a subscription twice as long i.e. if you pay for 3 months, you receive
6, if you pay for a year, you get two years, and if you pay for 2 years,
you get four years. In order to qualify, there are two conditions:
(1) You must act before December 1 and
(2) You must refer to this special offer by using the words: "Millennium
Subscription."
Happy New Year!
6. READER: Henry, your wrong again....
HW: 1) We were right about gold reaching 325 (re: your Ruff comment)
2) We were right about Oil over $25
3) We were right about 3 interest rate increases
4) We were right about Microsoft problems on the 5th and
5) Yes, we were wrong about Japan. As for the broad US market, we are
most definitely early. Whether ultimately "wrong" due to the stupidly,
greed and insanity of investors remains to be seen. I still don't think
so.
READER: I sold all my retirement investments because I was stupid enough
to follow your ridiculous advice about the stock market crash.
HW: I am not your advisor, but if you read our newsletter, we recommended
selling 30-50%. However, even if you sold all, I would think this very
prudent and cautious as opposed to stupid, greedy and insane.
READER: Can you tell me, do you see a systematic, day-by-day decline
into the 7,000 range by 12/31, or do you see a collapse before Thanksgiving?
HW: We will know better November 25. :)
READER: A reader, who recently returned from India, spoke of IHI's president
Roger Rached's chart entering a "dasha" period. What does "dasha"
mean?
HW: Along with transits, Dashas are the major predictive method of
Hindu Astrologers. It divides life into periods and subperiods ruled by
the various planets. For more information, see any basic textbook
on Hindu astrology.
READER: I am an astrology student and certainly agree with your predictions.
However I don't understand how you can say that the market will go down
when in fact the Nasdaq keeps consistently chugging along. How much do
you take the individual incorporation charts into account? Surely the entire
market will not have a mini crash when you predict it?
HW: Overall yes, but different sectors/stocks will fall at different
speeds.
READER: I think there is something wrong with my quote machine. I have
the Nasdaq off 58 points, that can't be right. Maybe Saturn/Uranus
is finally coming around.
HW: That plus continuing Microsoft problems, Fall Comdex is over, 3
interest rate increases, $25 Oil and Y2K should begin to turn things around.
READER: Henry, sold all my funds Friday and lost a lot due to this down
draft that did not occur........no one right all the time, but now am on
my own instincts coupled with my astro info.
HW: We have always stressed double screening i.e. combining our work
with your own. When they both agree, you are much more likely to have a
profit. However, I see nothing wrong with all cash, even though that
is not what we are doing for our clients.
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