Early Edition: November 11
1. November Markets
2. French Opinion
3. QUOTES
4. LETTERS
Were it not for the forthcoming Saturn/Uranus Square, Alan Greenspan and Y2K, I might think it would be a bull and not a bear Xmas. Our original price target at the end of November was DJIA 8888. Somehow, we are not yet there. Nonetheless, valuing the DJIA at 10,000 or the FTSE at 6000 is manic and mindless AND we believe unsustainable short AND intermediate term.
November 5th Microsoft's news was of the caliber we were expecting. Surprised by Monday's mild 1.8% drop on the news, we note November 15 is coming, by which time investors may come to realize the full import of the Judge's ruling.
Now that 200 is a common DJIA day move, [100 was last year and 50 before that], how long before 500-1000 point down days? November 14?
KEY DATES: November 14 [12,15]
DJIA:
P1 10,500 P2 10,200 P3 10,000
NASDAQ: 3000 Test
2. November 22 to December 3: BRUTAL UNHOOKING OR MINICRASH
"This period of ten days is for our model dangerous and a total retreat
of the markets from approximately -10% appears completely possible. With
our basic negative indicators is added a bearish signal of short term which
is generally very violent and generally causes a fast and brutal unhooking.
During such a period, one would thus not have to be astonished to attend
several days with -2/-4%. A true crash (-30% in a few days as in 1987)
appears to us however excluded. The most significant danger arises as from
Friday, November 26 and, as it is often the case, at the time of bearish
movements or violent ones, it is possible that the markets do not give
worrying signals before this date. Let us specify that the beginning of
this fall could be caused by a completely unexpected event:
devaluation of the Chinese Yuan, replacement of Boris Yeltsin in Russia,
etc."
For more information, see JF Richard's
Bourse Anticipations post.
3. "Today's fortune are made much more easily. It was intrinsically
impossible to make money like that 10 years ago. The speed at which people
are making money today has changed their whole perspective on spending
it." Mr. Lin.
HW: 1929 Revisited.
"The person who wins in the market is the one who makes small mistakes.
The person who loses is the one who makes big mistakes." Greg Kuhn President
Kamco.
HW: Amen. The biggest misteak I can think of us to be fully invested
for a long term buy and hold.
4. READER: This market has so detached itself from reality that
I am afraid my view from way back is that only something catastrophic can
keep it from going up was correct.
HW: The closer we get to May 2000, the more true this may become. But
we are not yet done with November!
READER: Have you heard rumor that Greenspan has been a student of Kabbala
and may very well be attuned to Planetary influences and thus has been
skillful in offsetting their influence?
HW: Not till now.
READER: I am a new subscriber and have just read your comment about
the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction in May 2000. What is the significance
here?
HW: Common sense returning to stock market investing. Won't that be
a BIG change?
READER: In the WSNW of Oct 17, you wrote "the party is over" expecting
a further down turn in the big indexes. This summer I wrote two articles
to explain how to use astrology for trading purposes, one of these articles
was invited by Trader's World. To make clear which rules apply, I demonstrated
the Mercury cycle in the major indexes. From this cycle a high probability
emerged that half October the Market would turn up. Not only this cycle
hinted me at an upturn. Thus, your e-mail gave me the contrarian opinion
and I decided this time to trust my own trading system and opinion, so
I took the profits from my short positions and went long Oct 19th.
It is a fascinating game indeed.
HW: There are many markets and many stock market cycles.
READER: On your IHI Horoscope
page, you mention that IHI's original name was White Horse. However, after
e-mailing the company, investor relations told me that it was Wild Horse.
Whose error?
HW: Ours. Original incorporation on February 16, 1987 was under
the name "Wild Horse Industries Inc."
READER: Several months ago IHI targeted this month (November, '99) as
the time line for accepting orders. What is the current target?
How much production is possible without robotic equipment?
HW: December. Sample projects are possible once every two months
starting in February.
READER: The Hindenburg accident, was a fire that was the result of the
paint that coated the outside, and not the hydrogen exploding. Indeed,
the hydrogen kept it afloat in time for the remaining people to escape.
Had it been a hydrogen explosion, there would only have been minute particles
of people left.
HW: I using taking poetic license, as the first thing anyone looking
into the Hydrogen energy sector learns is that exploding hydrogen was not
the cause of the Hindenburg disaster.
READER: [You write] "More information on the use of Stops: ASTROLOGICAL
TRADING PRIMER V 0.6." Why do you enter this as recommended reading
and then not allow Silver subscribers to log on to this information?
HW: The silver premium channel is for investors, not for traders, which
is Gold.
READER: [I am] In DCHT from $.75 . I am sure you know it closed over
$1.00 on Friday, what is your upside target and how long should we hold???
HW: As a short term trade until $1.25-$1.50; as a short term investment
till February; as an intermediate term investment $2 and as a long term
investment until the cows come home with hydrogen sensors in their udders.
READER: FOR THE LAST TIME!!! THERE ARE TOO MANY FORCES OUT THERE TO
LET THE MARKET GO DOWN...CNBC...THE BROKERS...THE FUND BOYS.....WHEN WILL
YOU LEARN! OK, maybe for an hour...a day...a week...but its going
to 30,000 buy the time of your grandsons b-mitzva ...for gods sakes...will
you bears ever get it???
HW: Get what? The stocks are "overvalued" and it is NOT "different
this time."
READER: The main message I hear is "gloom and doom, the market is going
to crash soon." OK, so if that does turn out to be the scenario,
what should those of us who have a few, hard-earned pennies in mutual
funds -- say an international fund like Janus WorldWide Fund - do
to avoid losing it all when the big one comes?
HW: Make sure you have cash. If in an IRA, you can just sell
now. If not, you can reduce your mutual fund holdings considerably.
Subscribers please send your comments, questions and suggestions to
Letters.
"Can you afford NOT to have financial astrology
in YOUR future?"
Stop reading Wall Street, Next Week, last week: YES,
I WANT TO SUBSCRIBE
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