1. BEAR TRENDS
2. PLAY OF THE WEEK
3. QUOTES
4. LETTERS
What will Alan do? What will Alan say? Little else matters Monday and Tuesday. There are some minor bearish astrological signatures later this week, so fresh bets will continue to be Selling.
Last week's market options expiration action was hardly dull. It seems the market's wet dream is to retest the DJIA's highs. So if it likes what Alan says on Tuesday, or a three way DJIA takeover M & A play of JPM and AXP by Citigroup, could do it. Even so, I continue to believe both the Nasdaq and broad market 1999 top is set
What are Merrill analysts smoking these days? Last week they postponed myYahoo profits by issuing strong buy recommendations on Internet stocks. Besides selling stock to a gullible public, where are the profits? AOL is being forced to move to a free subscription model. It may even have to PAY browsers as some are NOW doing in Europe! If I were a cynic, I would wonder whether their trading desk needed to unload.
As to the August 11 eclipse, I was a little surprised by the strong positive market response given the planetary aspects. Of course, as experienced astrologers know, the trigger effect of Solar eclipse can last up to 6 months. Still, as a planetary citizen, I was glad the major violent global flashpoints, with the exception of Russia, are still somewhat subdued.
GOLD demand reached a record of 809 tons, a new all-time high for any
3-month period. Given that marginal gold mines are shutting down,
the only supply overhang is the threat of more Central Banks selling.
Positively for gold, the US trade deficit ballooned to a record $24.62
billion in June. The trade gap broke $100 billion for the first time
and was much wider than the $20.5 billion deficit forecast.
Do you still wonder why I recommend some blue chip gold stocks and
diversifying out of 100% US denominated assets?
Keydates: August 24
DJIA: 10500
and/or 11,200
SPX:
1312
GOLD: Continue to
accumulate
2. Beginning Monday, we will be a regular feature on Bridge News PLAY OF THE WEEK. We will be giving one stellar global pick, including our price target, stop, time frame and reasons. After recording, we will email to subscribers.
3. "Evidence of a Bear Market continue to grow.... The near term
outlook for the stock market like the long-term outlook remains bearish."
Chris
Cadbury
HW: From a technical and astrological perspective, I agree.
Any post Alan-speak rally is a shorting opportunity.
4. READER: Waiting for a Saturn Uranus Square in October is a
long wait. I don't know about 7K Dow. (I think one could go broke waiting
for that.) At this point a correction to 10K would be a relief.
HW: I am confident that both a market correction will DEFINITELY arrive
BEFORE Godot and that is will be worth the wait.
READER: OUCH. I am with you but it is scary. I have been
with you all the way and will go broke shorting this market, because I
believe like yourself we will have a major correction. Is this latest short
alert due to tech factors, Astro factors or just
faith in the eclipse?..... I am shorting more at 10950.
Please give me a good reason.
HW: First, If you are use money management controls and are taking
periodic profits, you should NOT go broke.
Second, WSNW Alert 38K
(B) is due to both astro and technical factors.
Third, my reason is, like all WSNW alerts, it has the right risk/reward
and probability of a 200+ DJIA move or at least 50 in the money and an
even stop should you be so inclined. WSNW 38K (B) did not make money, but
38K and 38K (C) did.
READER: Does this mean MARCH/APRIL 2000 for [IHI] production?
Is there a cash problem that all the equipment has NOT been ordered already?
I am curious to your thoughts.
HW: To the best of my knowledge, there are no cash problems.
Equipment ordering is expected any day now. The Batching part takes
6 months to receive and install, while the Robotic equipment takes 4 months.
READER: Re: WSNW Alert 38KB: "DJIA 10950 just about to be triggered.
Be Ready to double up or reshort DJIA, SPU or Yahoo," when do we quadruple
up?
HW: Never, use appropriate stops.
Desperately looking for where any stop instructions were noted....
HW: We don't give them. That is up to you as we have all types of traders
using our material. Stops points depends on whether you are a day
or positional trader, whether hedging or speculation, whether this trade
agrees with your trading system or is contrary, and most important, what
instrument you are using: Options, Futures or Cash. If you are trading
say options, are they stock and index options, in the money and out of
the money, near and far out options - all have different time and
price decay. If you do not yet have an established trading system
that you double or triple screen with our work, I would suggest initially
using the standard 3-1 R/R, that way even if you are right only 1/2 the
time you make money.
READER: If astrology is so good for judging markets how could early
July and 8/11 be not huge bear falls but 100% opposite bull moves instead?
And not in a small way, but a massive way.
HW: There was a BIG move from the middle of July in Nasdaq. It
is the night of the living dead, and market momentum slowed and stopped,
even if temporarily. IT takes a lot to stop a runaway freight train.
Perfection is something we don't claim and no single forecast makes or breaks astrology. NO financial astrologer ever said it was a perfect tool, just the single best one available to forecast markets as is evidenced by its many successes. Astrology Money managers attempt (and often succeed) to outperform equivalent risk/reward portfolios.
READER: Yes, I agree with you clearly momentum for three weeks was nailed.
But to me what seemed so surprising was the actual days around the eclipse
set off a tremendous rally... To me what is most troubling is that your
list of astrological red letter dates for the market to get hit are exhausted
with the exception of general fear of Y2K. If the market sneezed over the
power of a solar eclipse I find it difficult to put weight into general
Y2K fear hitting the market harder than the eclipse.
HW: Astrology is a necessary but NOT sufficient condition for
events. There are other Eclipse specific days, such as November 10 when
the Sun is square the eclipse as well as a one day marker we are releasing
to our traders now. Eclipses historically have sometimes resulted
in strong rallies - the Gulf War was one notable recent example - all they
indicate is major cosmic power. Given the aspects of Mars/Saturn/Uranus
it was indeed surprising that short term it was "positive". However, I
do not believe to be so intermediate term.
Reader: Is Stox available OTC in
the USA? Will IHI hit $3 nearer September 9th?
HW: Currently Stox.com trades only on the Canadian Vancouver Exchange
under the symbol URL - By next Spring it should trade on a US exchange
as well. As to IHI, like gold, I am amazed that they are (both) still
so cheap.
READER: In your "Daily Market commentary you refer to the DJIA and SPX.
How do you trade these indexes? Are you trading options on them? How does
it work? Up to this point I have only been trading stocks.
HW: I generally trade future contracts (indexes) over most options
as nearly 90% of all options expire worthless. So unless a major
linear move, I prefer cash. I trade a variety of instruments
depending on the client. However, I cannot stress too strongly the
need to practice, practice, practice any market extensively BEFORE committing
REAL money. Find out the quality of your synastry with futures BEFORE
you lose money. When I give SPU as well as DJIA markets in our Daily Commentary,
this can be one broad general signal to buy or sell whatever instrument
you are using.
If you are interested in the high risk/high return world of futures
trading, the best place to start is to open a "virtual" account at
CME Online live simulated Trading Program.
This starts you with $50,000 play money. For $24.95 to $34.95 a month,
you get Real-time prices, Real-time accounts status and EXPERIENCE.
In addition to skill, you need adequate capital. I would NOT recommend
trading futures without at least 3-6 months practice and $20,000 speculative
RISK capital. Note: most newbie futures accounts of $10,000 or less
are closed at a loss in under a year.
Subscribers please send your comments, questions and suggestions to
Letters.
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in YOUR future?"
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