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WALL
STREET, NEXT
WEEK: JANUARY 23, 2012
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
1. DJIA 13000 or 12000 first? 12800 or 12400 first?
The first bet
is 37%-63%, the second bet is a coin toss or 50%-50%. Those who believe things
are getting better will continue to argue with those who see things are worse
than acknowledged.
We are in a
NEWS driven market. We expect more “mixed” news e.g Friday - IBM & MSFT
vs. GOOG & GE. Given the current market marker is somewhat neutral, this
should not be a surprise. Still the
risk/reward of the current market past January is less and less favorable. Global equity markets are seemingly
becoming used to bad news and are starting to ignore it. Should market rally more as well as time wise
the closer we are to March, the odds of a short term top in place will be
increasing. This is why on Thursday, we
issued:
WSNW HEDGE
ALERT January 19, 2012
While markets may rally there are at a point where one
should begin (continue) to add downside protection.
This is not classic sell, but we have reached our SPX
1308-1310 area that hedges should be considered. If we get to 1325 and 1350
those would be second and third hedge/market shorts not as trades per se but to
smooth out account volatility.
Markers 1: SPX 1314
DJ 12623 NAS 2788
CHINESE NEW
YEAR WATER DRAGON- Fresh
hopes for the stock market wash ashore with the Water Dragon
2012
is a year to “plan” for surprises. The
Year of the Dragon promises excitement, unpredictability and intensity.
This is reinforced in Western Astrology by a
series of Uranus – Pluto squares of
western astrology 2012-2015 which promises “revolutionary changes.” The Republican Party race, Costa Concordia
Italian ship disaster are but two recent examples. We expect more and more of the unexpected 2012-2015.
Markets therefore should be played close to the vest - diversified
substantially against many knowable risks as well as slow global growth and low
yields.
BOTTOM
LINE: H1 2012 We continue to advise high
cash, more frequent trading and increased hedging- long/short.
TRADERS: Trade the
news EACH day.
INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on
protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable
earnings at Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain prices that you are willing to hold until
2013-2014.
Soberly prepare for the reality of a weak two track US economy until 2013-2015.
FAIR VALUE: DOW 11111 SPX 1140 NAS 2400
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO: L2/S3
KEY
DATES: JANUARY 23, 26, 27
DJIA:
11217/12450 DUAL PIVOTS R3 12600 RESISTANCE
SPX:
1280/1300 SUPPORT? 1325 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: 2800
RESISTANCE
APRIL
GOLD: 1660/1620 SUPPORT 1680/700 RESISTANCE
MAR
SILVER: 32 PIVOT RESISTANCE
MAR
OIL: 98 SUPPORT?
US$: 80/81 DUAL PIVOTS
MAR
COPPER: INTERMEDIATE TERM ACCUMULATE ON WEAKNESS - R1 380 R2 400 R3 430
Until March 28,
the Market Marker is somewhat neutral.
2011
CLOSE: DJIA 11217
SPX 1257 & NASDAQ 2605
2010
CLOSE: DJIA 11577
SPX 1257 & NASDAQ 2652
2009 CLOSE:
DJIA 10428 SPX 1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:
DJIA 8776, SPX 903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE: DJIA 13264,
SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE: DJIA 12463,
SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE: DJIA 10717, SPX
1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:
5
~ FV 0 UV; 4 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST
DOWNSIDE RISK
BOTTOM LINE: STAY LIQUID. Focus on safety.
2. Still too early to buy, but be ready
to sell/hedge more if markets rally to SPX 1325-1330.
3. Silver
Prices - Silver Prices - Revisiting Our Proposal for an Overnight
Gold Fund
2
Ways to Play Copper's Seasonal Strength
Gold
Prices to Peak in 2013, Says GFMS
Equity
markets in Hong Kong and China
will be closed this week. It will be
interesting to see how commodity markets behave in the absence of the China factor.
4. “We’ve had a strong January, which is
definitely an indication that expectations are starting to turn around.”
Marc
Pado, U.S.
market strategist, Cantor Fitzgerald
HW: That is the optimistic viewpoint and in
accordance with the thinking of many investors.
“My takeaway from
2011 is the lesson that the impediments to more rapid U.S. growth are
likely to be deeper and more persistent than we thought a year ago.”
Jeffrey Lacker,
President, Federal
Reserve Bank of Richmond
HW:
In other words, the FED has been wrong again (and again).
“Eventually
things [Housing] will pick up in a big way, but we don’t see it happening for a
couple of years. There are too many foreclosures and lending standards are
tighter.”
Patrick
Newport, economist, IHS Global Insight
HW:
Yes, as we said from the beginning (2007), 2015-2017.
5. Shilling
says new global recession is here
Spain Announces Beginning Of
The End
A bullish year? Maybe, but reasons to be wary
6. READER; In ur
last week WSNW u said that after 11 Jan u will have better informed guess
but nothing is mentioned as such in the latest WSNW.
HW: Until March 28, the Market Marker is somewhat neutral. Hence we got no additional insight. We guess markets will top in January. That is
why we will step into hedging/shorting if/as markets get higher.
READER:
Remember my prediction that euro is heading to par with US dollar. I met an Austrian businessman that has
been residing in Sweden
for several years...and he agrees with me that the euro has a lot further to
fall... I'm not citing this article below for my call...but just passing it
along fyi...Euro Falls After S&P Strips France of
AAA, Reduces Eight Others’ Ratings
HW: We see 2012 as a mixed year for the euro, while 2013 become
positive. Currently we see it trading in
a range of 124 to 132.
READER: Elliott wave thinks the same as you here. Put/call ratio is
now 0.55.That is very close to a top.
As I have understood you there will be negative astro in February: One, maybe
two times?
HW: Rather than negative
per se, reality will perhaps become better understood and acknowledged.
While in some ways things are getter better, it is a long term
process not a short term turnaround situation.
Overall the picture is somewhat mixed - for every good company
story there is another difficult and challenging one. The overall result is
somewhat neutral
The market, economy, planet are all likely to be subject to a
number of shocks or surprises over then next few years and will challenge
safety and security. Hence there is always significant downside
market risk.
Also fundamentally speaking, US markets have built in most of the
good news ahead, i.e. the market is ahead of itself short term.
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