Wall Street Next Week January 16, 2012
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WEEK: JANUARY 16, 2012
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
5. ON THE WEB
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME
Markets continue their risky adventures. Bulls
are hoping for a bear capitulation, but where is the fundamental reason for
that? I don’t see it the limited upside
out weights the downside risk.
While there is strong momentum and desire to
rise to SPX 1300-1310, it is counter balanced by Euro worries along with U.S.
stocks face lowered earnings bar. The net result
is likely to be somewhat neutral and choppy with more surprises possible e.g.
Europe, Japan, China in Q1
2012. Hence we see no reason to
rush to put money to work just now. The
risk/reward is simply not worth it.
markets rise first, then sell, reduce or at least add some shorts to a
long/short hedge or the equivalent.
markets drop first, wait and when prices are better invest.
trade VERY short term.
choices are not great, but the alternatives- investing with such risk is not
attractive either. Spend the interim
researching stocks if and when we see better prices, or just do nothing
investment wise, and take a winter vacation!
In other words, continued patience is key.
We repeat our 2012 Investing Mantra here:
higher levels of cash than normal
more frequently than normal
(be long/short) more than normal.
We are ready to buy markets (after
a correction in H1 2012) but we are in NO hurry.
GUEST HYDE PARK
“It is a time for all
investors to approach the market like professionals, actively manage risk and
protect the downside first. If you are not comfortable in that role, seek out a
financial advisor who can help you achieve your goals.”
Terranova: 'Buy High Sell Higher,' 2012 Outlook
HW: I agree.
TRADERS: CONTINUED VOLATILITY is to be expected.
long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and
only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain prices that you are willing to hold until
Soberly prepare for the reality of a weak two track US economy until 2013-2015.
VALUE: DOW 11088 SPX 1128 NAS 2388
KEY DATES: JANUARY 19,
11217/12450 DUAL PIVOTS R3 12600/12680 RESISTANCE
1257 SUPPORT 1308 RESISTANCE
SUPPORT 2750 RESISTANCE
APRIL GOLD: 1650 PIVOT 1600/1620
SUPPORT 1700 RESISTANCE
MAR SILVER: 30 PIVOT 28.50 SUPPORT 32 RESISTANCE
100 PIVOT S1 98 S2 97 S3 95
US$: 80 SUPPORT 82.52 RESISTANCE
MAR COPPER: INTERMEDIATE TERM ACCUMULATE
Until March 28, the Market Marker is somewhat
DJIA 11217 SPX
1257 & NASDAQ 2605
DJIA 11577 SPX
1257 & NASDAQ 2652
DJIA 10428 SPX 1115 & NASDAQ 2269
DJIA 8776, SPX 903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE: DJIA 13264,
SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE: DJIA 12463,
SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE: DJIA 10717, SPX
1248 & NASDAQ 2205
~ FV 0 UV; 4 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST
LINE: STAY LIQUID. Focus on safety.
2. While more close in price than timing to selling markets, (outside of
special situations), we continue to bide our time. If/when markets are closer to SPX 1305-1308.
we recommend begin selling/additional hedging..
miners positioned for takeovers, IPOs
Gold and Silver continue to trade somewhat
irrationally e.g. I believe gold should RISE on Euro problems not fall! Be that as it may, for the next 4-7 weeks, we
will buy AND sell the precious metals.
We repeat on a long term investing basis, however,
many small and midcap gold stocks are undervalued while some energy ones are very
For the former, we are looking to a repeat of
GDXJ 22 (to 18) buys, for the latter Oil at or under $85.
“We have seen a good bit of commentary recent about how Europe is either in
recession or on its way to one, while expectations for the US economy are
improving. We are not sure that sort of commentary is right. Yes, European
prospects have worsened. However, depending on how far back one looks,
estimates for US growth have either not improved all that much, or have
Now, if the US
has seen its best growth, Europe is going into recession, and we toss China in as
likely to have seen its best growth for the cycle, the risk of negative
feedback is pretty worrying.”
HW: We agree 100%!
“Even though there
were some disappointments, the underlying trend in earnings was still strong. There
was some growth there, not as strong as it has been in the recent past, but
suggesting we’ll get a decent up-year in stocks.”
chief market strategist, LPL Financial
HW: Highly possible
BY YEAR END, but we are a long way from that in time and not that far away in price!
outlook provides the Fed with some wiggle room. While growth remains uneven,
manufacturing activity has been resilient.”
John Hermann, senior
fixed-income strategist, State Street Global Markets.
HW: While these are
about as good as weather forecasts, at least they may provide short term
comfort to markets.
5. Commodity trading no longer just
to play Europe’s debt downgrades
500 performance around MLK holiday is mixed
6. READER: I have silver bullion that I purchased in the mid-teens. I'm going to
sell, but my question is: Should I sell ALL or do you see silver coming back in
1 or 2 years and setting previous highs or going lower than the mid-teens?
Wait until at least Friday - silver should be up tomorrow.
[It did] And not totally safe until
March period so be cautious and step in. You can take your profits (tomorrow)
or half your profits- that way you don’t lose whether Silver continues to rally
much higher or falls back down to earth next.
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