WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: JANUARY 9, 2012
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS


1. EARNINGS IN JANUARY ROBUST?
We live in a two track world. Investors with “low expectations” may be happily “surprised”, while market bulls experience short term disappointment.
Some companies will express more difficulty increasing profits in 2012- One key portent for H1 2012:  Tiffany sales slow.
Domestic US companies that buy into government reports will offer forward looking statements that are modestly optimistic.
Those with stronger earnings usually report earlier and given the high levels of cash and optimism, markets CAN rally to SPX 1300-1334 – if so we advise shorting/hedging.
The net result is likely to be somewhat neutral and choppy with some strong surprises possible e.g. Europe, Japan, China etc. 
 
But if market are “realistic” about H1 2012, they will fail tests of SPX 1300/1310, and break SPX 1257 (12/31 year end) and lower first.
Furthermore on the first or second time If/when markets break their 2011 CLOSE: DJIA 11217 SPX 1257 & NASDAQ 2605, then the downside potential that we see is a drop of 8-10% in H1 2012.
 
January 11, 2012 we have a new Q1 Market Marker- watch closely for clues how the markets are likely to act this winter in the absence of news!
Until then we see too many cross currents to know if bulls or bears are likely to have the upper hand in January.
While continued volatility is a certainty, I don’t’ know if bulls take charge first due to natural optimism and cash, but either way I see the potential for bears getting the upper hand before March once (or twice) again. After January 11, I will have important key information to make a better informed guess.
 
 
GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Did Psychopaths Take Over Wall Street Asylum?
 
TRADERS: WATCH MARKETS VERY CLOSELY JANUARY 11.
INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain prices that you are willing to hold until 2013-2014. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of a weak two track US economy until 2013-2015.

 
FAIR VALUE:  DOW 11082 SPX 1124 NAS 2380
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO: L1/S1
 
KEY DATES:   JANUARY 9, 11, 13
DJIA:              11217/12450 DUAL PIVOTS   R3 12600 RESISTANCE
SPX:               1257 PIVOT 1200 SUPPORT 1300 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:        2652 PIVOT
APRIL GOLD:  1620 PIVOT 1700 RESISTANCE
MAR SILVER:  28.50 PIVOT 26 SUPPORT? 30 or 32 RESISTANCE?
MAR OIL:        100 PIVOT S1 97 S2 95 S3 90  105 RESISTANCE  
US$:               79 SUPPORT 82.20 RESISTANCE
MAR COPPER: INTERMEDIATE TERM ACCUMULATE ON WEAKNESS -  S1 338 S2 322 S3 300 360 RESISTANCE?
 
Until March 28, the Market Marker changes on January 11 from:
"Reality is underwhelming, should I be worried? Nah, the world doesn’t end until Dec 21, 2012, if then." to ???
2011 CLOSE:           DJIA 11217 SPX   1257 & NASDAQ 2605 
2010 CLOSE:           DJIA 11577 SPX   1257 & NASDAQ 2652 
2009 CLOSE:           DJIA 10428 SPX   1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       5 ~ FV 0 UV; 4 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK

BOTTOM LINE: STAY LIQUID. Focus on safety.

2. We await January 11th new market marker. We repeat here our five 2012 investing themes:

 
Germany is our favorite G8 country in 2012.
Euro will be mixed in 2012, but a buy for 2013
Buy Copper – 2012 Target $4 OB
Sell Silver by March- Potential bottom Target well below $26
Oil will be lower later this year before US Presidential elections i.e. more often below $100 than above.
 
 
 Digging Southern Copper's Dividends  vs. Copper Producers Still Have A Long Way To Fall
CPER United States Copper Index  The United States Copper Index Fund launched on November 15, 2011
 
3.  Silver may have an upwards trading move later this week.  Will it be high enough for an investing short?  Probably not – also it is too soon for a safe “sell and hold”. 
 
4. The euro continues to fall, and I think that puts a lot of downward pressure on our stock market. We’re a global economy now, and if banks fail in Europe we need to be concerned.”
Kim Caughey Forrest, senior equity analyst, Fort Capital
HW: Just how concerned we should know better on January 11th.
 
“What U.S. investors are focused on are three exogenous variables: the sovereign debt mess in Europe, the prospect of slower growth out of emerging markets and the policy dysfunction that we’re dealing with in Washington.”
Philip Orlando, chief equity market strategist, Federated Investors
HW: True but they SHOULD also be focused on slow/slowing US growth as well as politics.

“Investors very much have 2008 on their minds and don’t want to lose principle, so are fleeing to safe havens.”

Kathleen Gaffney, co-portfolio manager, Loomis Sayles Bond Fund  
HW: This is one of many things I also advise- but what is really a “safe haven”?
 
5.  Blackrock’s 10 predictions for 2012
 
A Historical Cycle Bodes Ill for the Markets
 
It’s a market of ‘fir$ts’ for smart investors
 
6. READER: If the odds favor a market rally, how will that affect the price of gold and silver? Higher or lower?
HW: Could be either depending on WHY markets are rallying.  But the odds are more likely they would rally short term in January with a market rally.
    
 
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