Wall Street Next Week January 9, 2012
STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WEEK: JANUARY 9, 2012
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
5. ON THE WEB
IN JANUARY ROBUST?
We live in a two track world. Investors with
“low expectations” may be happily “surprised”, while market bulls experience
short term disappointment.
Some companies will express more difficulty increasing profits in
2012- One key portent for H1 2012: Tiffany sales slow.
Domestic US companies that buy into
government reports will offer forward looking statements that are modestly
Those with stronger earnings usually report
earlier and given the high levels of cash and optimism, markets CAN rally to
SPX 1300-1334 – if so we advise shorting/hedging.
result is likely to be somewhat neutral and choppy with some strong surprises
possible e.g. Europe, Japan,
But if market are “realistic” about H1 2012,
they will fail tests of SPX 1300/1310, and break SPX 1257 (12/31 year end) and
Furthermore on the first or second time If/when
markets break their 2011 CLOSE: DJIA 11217 SPX 1257 & NASDAQ 2605,
then the downside potential that we see is a drop of 8-10% in H1 2012.
January 11, 2012 we have a new Q1 Market Marker-
watch closely for clues how the markets
are likely to act this winter in the absence of news!
Until then we see too many cross currents to
know if bulls or bears are likely to have the upper hand in January.
While continued volatility is a certainty, I
don’t’ know if bulls take charge first due to natural optimism and cash, but
either way I see the potential for bears getting the upper hand before March
once (or twice) again. After January 11, I will have important key information
to make a better informed guess.
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX:
Did Psychopaths Take Over Wall Street Asylum?
MARKETS VERY CLOSELY JANUARY 11.
long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and
only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain prices that you are willing to hold until
Soberly prepare for the reality of a weak two track US economy until 2013-2015.
VALUE: DOW 11082 SPX 1124 NAS 2380
KEY DATES: JANUARY 9,
11217/12450 DUAL PIVOTS R3 12600 RESISTANCE
1257 PIVOT 1200 SUPPORT 1300 RESISTANCE
APRIL GOLD: 1620 PIVOT 1700
MAR SILVER: 28.50 PIVOT 26
SUPPORT? 30 or 32 RESISTANCE?
100 PIVOT S1 97 S2 95 S3 90
79 SUPPORT 82.20 RESISTANCE
MAR COPPER: INTERMEDIATE TERM ACCUMULATE
ON WEAKNESS - S1 338 S2 322 S3 300 360
Until March 28, the Market Marker changes on
January 11 from:
"Reality is underwhelming, should I be
worried? Nah, the world doesn’t end until Dec 21, 2012, if then." to ???
DJIA 11217 SPX
1257 & NASDAQ 2605
DJIA 11577 SPX
1257 & NASDAQ 2652
DJIA 10428 SPX 1115 & NASDAQ 2269
DJIA 8776, SPX 903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE: DJIA 13264,
SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE: DJIA 12463,
SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE: DJIA 10717, SPX
1248 & NASDAQ 2205
~ FV 0 UV; 4 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE
CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK
BOTTOM LINE: STAY LIQUID. Focus on
2. We await January 11th new market marker. We repeat here our five
2012 investing themes:
Germany is our favorite G8
country in 2012.
will be mixed in 2012, but a buy for 2013
Copper – 2012 Target $4 OB
Silver by March- Potential bottom Target well below $26
will be lower later this year before US Presidential elections i.e. more often
below $100 than above.
Digging Southern Copper's Dividends vs. Copper Producers Still Have A Long Way To Fall
CPER United States
Copper Index The United States Copper Index Fund launched on
November 15, 2011
3. Silver may have an upwards trading move later
this week. Will it be high enough for an
investing short? Probably not – also it
is too soon for a safe “sell and hold”.
euro continues to fall, and I think that puts a lot of downward pressure on our
stock market. We’re a global economy now, and if banks fail in Europe we need to be concerned.”
Caughey Forrest, senior equity analyst, Fort Capital
how concerned we should know better on January 11th.
“What U.S. investors are focused on are three exogenous
variables: the sovereign debt mess in Europe, the prospect of slower growth out
of emerging markets and the policy dysfunction that we’re dealing with in Washington.”
Orlando, chief equity market strategist, Federated Investors
but they SHOULD also be focused on slow/slowing US growth as well as politics.
“Investors very much have 2008 on their minds and don’t want to lose principle,
so are fleeing to safe havens.”
Gaffney, co-portfolio manager, Loomis Sayles Bond Fund
is one of many things I also advise- but what is really a “safe haven”?
5. Blackrock’s 10 predictions for 2012
A Historical Cycle Bodes Ill for the Markets
It’s a market of ‘fir$ts’ for smart investors
6. READER: If the odds favor a market rally, how will
that affect the price of gold and silver? Higher or lower?
HW: Could be either depending
on WHY markets are rallying. But the
odds are more likely they would rally short term in January with a market
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