1. JULY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. MARKETS DOWN INTO THE US NOVEMBER ELECTIONS?
As we forecast at our Triple Gold Conference, markets are likely to (at least) retest Dow 9800 to 9600 over the Summer, and perhaps as soon as late July. After the pattern of earnings news become known, what is there for markets to look forward to?  Outside of the technology sectors, and that could shortly become an over done theme; we should see a future market drag from banks and financials that will surely have their earnings curtailed by recent financial legislation. Consumer confidence numbers will remain low because US jobs and housing numbers will be going nowhere this Summer and Fall.   It is true today that there are some expanding economies in Asia, Latin America and Africa. However, intermediate term they will not outweigh the longer term US and Europe debt problems. 

Bottom line: It is Summer, so unless you are a trader or enjoy the excitement of special situation investing news e.g. BP, I recommend taking a vacation from markets starting later this week or early next! 

Closed-Door Fed Meeting: Prepare for The Worst
HW: It is good to have a contingency plan, is it not?
 

 
KEY DATES:     JULY 23, 26
DJIA:                 S1 10100 S2 10000 S3 9800 S4 9600 R1 10200 R2 10400 R3 10500
SPX:                 1020 SUPPORT 1100 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:          2200 PIVOT
AUG GOLD       1220 PIVOT S1 1200 S2 1180 S3 1160
SEP SILVER:    18.27 PIVOT 17.50 SUPPORT?
AUG OIL:          75 PIVOT 72 SUPPORT 80 RESISTANCE
EURO:              128 PIVOT 124 SUPPORT 130 RESISTANCE?
US$                   84 PIVOT 82 SUPPORT  

Market Marker Sentiment is to Sell prenews optimism; even modest reality will move markets down! 
2009 CLOSE:           DJIA  10428 SPX  1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 1 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
US BANK FAILURES TO DATE: 96   
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. What We Talk About When We Talk About Quality Dividend Yield
HW: When markets are (much) lower, this is something to think about. 

3. Is it true that inflation is almost non-existent?  Not in my world. Still, this worry could be a catalyst cause for gold dropping close to Fair Value ($1027-$1040). We continue to wait, and for traders we are still recommending shorting on key astro dates.  However, we are also aware that any upside move is likely to be rapid, violent, and unexpected. 

Bottom line: It is never wrong from a portfolio risk perspective, to maintain some precious metals exposure (5%-20% depending on total composition, US$ hedging, risk profile and astro-indicators.) 

4. "The market is manic depressive, great one day and terrible the next."
Paul Nolte, managing director, Dearborn Partners
HW:  A whole day?  Increasingly, it is great one part of the day, and terrible shortly thereafter! 

"You have to understand the game you're playing -- you're playing with sharks. You may believe in buy-and-hold, but there are large players out there that don't."
Kenny Landgraf, president, Kenjol Capital Management
HW: You betcha! 

“We are living through a remarkable time of change. We want to make sure we navigate the changes for our clients.”
Mohamed.El-Erian, co CIO, Pimco
HW: You ain't seen nothing yet, aka 2012-2015! 

5. Wealthy Reduce Buying in a Blow to the Recovery
 
 Don't be fooled by another breakout 

Crisis Awaits World’s Banks as Trillions Come Due 

6. READER: Is it true that inflation is almost non-existent? In regards to oil....when does H2 start?  Will you say in your newsletter at that point, it is time to buy oil?
HW: This depends on whether you are buying oil as a trade, investment or portfolio hedge and whether you step in on entries as I do or are “all or nothing”.  My answer is sometime in Q3, ideally when markets are (well) below 10,000.  The exception is if a portfolio hedge, and for that case for very select stocks can be anytime. 

READER: Arch is talking about having water and food and 3-5 weeks of cash from the end of this month and on to 2 years out......do you think the same?
After questioning him more, he said physical cash for 3-5 weeks in case banks have to close as during the GREAT DEPRESSION...so, I have money in a credit union savings and TD Ameritrade account which is 95% cash right now.....I am concerned as to weather this is a good place to have my cash vs. a mattress. Any opinion on all this? Or thoughts on what to do and until when?
HW: I am never as bearish as Arch.  Doesn’t mean he won’t be right this time, but hasn’t he said this before?
As for markets, they are more likely to be lower than higher midterm. How low?  I don’t see a “Prechter” low. I do see the odds are greater than 60% for a Dow 9600 retest, and better than one third for a Dow 8800 or 9200 retest.   

As for water and food, one “concerned” citizen I know does canned food hoarding as a regular emergency preparation EVERY year.  Then just before Thanksgiving or Christmas he donates the food to a local food bank or shelter. 

As what to do until “then”, live a happy and healthy life or as well said in Matthew 6.25.34:
Therefore I say unto you, Take no thought for your life, what ye shall eat, or what ye shall drink; nor yet for your body, what ye shall put on. Is not the life more than meat, and the body than raiment? Behold the fowls of the air: for they sow not, neither do they reap, nor gather into barns; yet your heavenly Father feedeth them. Are ye not much better than they? Which of you by taking thought can add one cubit unto his stature? And why take ye thought for raiment? Consider the lilies of the field, how they grow; they toil not, neither do they spin: And yet I say unto you, That even Solomon in all his glory was not arrayed like one of these. Wherefore, if God so clothe the grass of the field, which to day is, and to morrow is cast into the oven, shall he not much more clothe you, O ye of little faith? Therefore take no thought, saying, What shall we eat? or, What shall we drink? or, Wherewithal shall we be clothed? for your heavenly Father knoweth that ye have need of all these things. But seek ye first the kingdom of God, and his righteousness; and all these things shall be added unto you. Take therefore no thought for the morrow: for the morrow shall take thought for the things of itself. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.