WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: APRIL 26, 2010
 FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1.  APRIL 26 to APRIL 28 (30) YELLOW ALERT

Despite bullish views, U.S. stocks face another peak week for earnings, we remain on our WALL NEXT SELL ALERT:

Thursday April 22 We are on Wall Street, Next Week alert:

It is NOW time to Start (today, tomorrow and until the end of Next Week), but while the dance number (CHA CHA) should change before the end of the month, don’t expect Bulls to give up without a fight. Investors: Hold stocks you want to hold until Q4 2010 and 2011- Sell, Stop or Protect the rest short/intermediate term.)  

While day traders were able to immediately profit from the above call, positional traders have yet to. It would have been nice if April 22’s initial market drop of 100 points had held (April 23, 2010: Market Summary).  But as we wrote “Don’t expect Bulls to give up without a fight.”  Next week we have a plethora of astrological, economic and earnings events including:
  1. Monday              Saturn opposite Uranus
  2. Tuesday             Consumer Confidence
  3. Wednesday        FOMC meeting AND Full Moon
  4. Thursday            Jobless Claims
  5. Friday                 GDP and U of Michigan Confidence 

Fundamentally, we expect an “unexpected” interest rate rise, but whether real or just off emergency rates or a language change is unknown.
Note: Given the astrological nature of Saturn (drop) Uranus (Sudden), should markets continue to rally beyond April 30, we may then be forecasting a “market crash” rather than simply a “correction”. 

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT QTR EARNINGS
We believe either they will disappoint, (especially if markets do not correct first), or at least not surprise on the upside.
Before this, US markets can “look forward” to both Higher Interest rates AND higher Taxes- is this good for the stock market? I don’t think so! 

Note: 4th and final Market Marker is May 28th.
 

TRADERS: THE TREND WILL BE YOUR FRIEND. 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until 2011. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped US economy until 2012-2015. 

FAIR VALUE:   DOW 9400 NAS 1893 SPX 938
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S2

 
KEY DATES:    APRIL 26-30
DJIA:                11155 PIVOT 11250 RESISTANCE
SPX:                R1 1200 R2 1212 R3 1125
NASDAQ:         S1 2500 S2 2460 S3 2380
JUNE GOLD     1144 PIVOT S1 1120 S2 1100 S3 1080 R1 1150 R2 1160 R3 1177
JULY SILVER:  17.80 PIVOT  18.80 RESISTANCE
JUNE OIL:         84 PIVOT 80 SUPPORT R1 85 R2 86.50 R3 88
US$                  80 SUPPORT/83 RESISTANCE   

Market Marker Sentiment changes end of May 2010.  
So Far: Modest Hope coupled with Realty (Disappointment).  Unlike previously, markets drop first, then usual bargain hunting rally ending slightly positive.
2009 CLOSE:           DJIA  10428 SPX  1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       4 ~ FV 0 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
US BANK FAILURES TO DATE: 57   
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. Canada Matching China Profits at 18% Discount Lure Record Cash
HW: We agree that one should over weight Canada into 2011. 

3. Nothing new to say – if markets move up so will commodities.  If not, they may not. 

"If you liked earnings season this week, you're going to love it next week."

Art Hogan, chief market strategist, Jefferies

HW: That remains to be seen.

 "We may not be back to where you want to be, but we have turned a corner."
Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst, Standard & Poor's
HW: Some have, but many have not. 

“The key question is: Is this the peak quarter in terms of earnings growth as the comparisons get more difficult as the year proceeds?”
 Peter Tuz, president, Chase Investment Counsel
HW: For most companies, we believe so. 

5. After 79% Jump, Are Stocks Still Cheap? 

25 Reasons the Markets' Rise is Real 

Avoid Negative-Net-Worth Stocks Like the Plague
“I rarely buy a stock whose debt is greater than stockholders’ equity, or corporate net worth per share. In effect, that means I won’t give a second look to about one third of U.S. stocks.” 

6. READER: Thank you for the this SELL ALERT.  It is a very valuable service you offer to basic subscribers.
I hope your "timing" is right.
HW: So do I! :) 

READER: Do you happen to have any dates in May or August that seem potentially important to you.  My May date is around mid month and my August date is early in the month.
HW: Virtually The whole period from May to August has potential. I am first waiting for our April 22-28 (30) call to play out before thinking about any double bottom and (post) July earnings market issues. 

READER: What do you think about Arch reporting a cardinal cross.  Do you see it as severe as he does?
HW: In general, Arch is far more bearish than I am.  However, should markets not correct, but continue to rise despite “common sense”, then the probability of a crash vs. a correction will correspondingly rise.




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