1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. STOCK MARKET ALERT APRIL 22-28
This Rally Must Clear Some Tall Hurdles
HW: I believe most of the “good” earnings news has been, or will be this week, built into market pricing. 

I repeat last week’s warning:
We are less than 30 days away from our projected correction (long over due fundamentally).
We are in zone NOW up to early May centering on APRIL 22-28.
So if we are right, there is very little time left to act. 

BOTTOM LINE:
Investors: Sell, Stop or Protect (buy puts/write covered calls)  your stock holdings - markets are intermediate term near the top in TIME AND PRICE.
Traders: This week is perhaps time to stop dancing the CHA CHA and find the nearest Congo line! :)
 

THE NEW MARKET MARKER SENTIMENT (MMS)
Market Marker Sentiment (MMS) changes again May 28. The latest MMS:
Modest Hope coupled with Realty (Disappointment). Unlike previously,  
markets drop first, followed by bargain hunting.
 

PANDORA’S BOX
For Goldman, a Bet’s Stakes Keep Growing 
Air Travel Crisis Deepens as Europe Fears Wider Impact
We now have added two more worries to our long list!
I wonder which will have greater impact on the stock market in 6 months time.

 
KEY DATES:    APRIL 19, 22-28
DJIA:               11000 PIVOT 10888 SUPPORT?
SPX:                S1 1180 S2 1150 S3 1140 1210 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:        2500 PIVOT 2325-2350  SUPPORT
JUNE GOLD:    1144 PIVOT S1 1130 S2 1020 S3 1090  S4 1080  1160 RESISTANCE
JULY SILVER:   17.50/18 DUAL PIVOTS
JUNE OIL:         84 PIVOT 79 SUPPORT
US$                  80 PIVOT 

Market Marker Sentiment changes by June 2010.  
So Far: Modest Hope coupled with Realty (Disappointment).  Unlike previously, markets drop first, then usual bargain hunting rally ending slightly positive.
2009 CLOSE:           DJIA  10428 SPX  1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       2 ~ FV 0 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
US BANK FAILURES TO DATE: 50  
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
 

2. “4/15/2010 Interestingly, in somewhat the inverse of March 2009, whereby almost every DJIA stock was under valued, today we find most overvalued and NONE undervalued!
Hence we intend to sell markets short right after Tax Time April 15 (especially watch 4/22 to 4/30) as  most likely sometime over the Summer.”
WSNW readers can read our latest valuation DJIA targets at our premium subscriber post: DOW JONES STOCKS (4/15/2010).
Please note because of the market action Friday, we did not finish our price updates and we intend to revise this post within a few days. 
P.S. Not entirely a surprise Friday April 16 (right after tax time), Goldman Sachs (GS) achieved our P1 target yesterday of 160.  FYI P2 is 138. 

3. BUSINESS & BANQUETS
2010 IPAA Oil and Gas conference was subdued, but obviously far less distressed than 2009. Doing more with less, balancing Oil and Gas E/P assets, and concerns about low gas prices were predominant themes.  We found four companies of especial interest:
·                     Contango (MCF) remains a favorite natural gas play: MCF costs are 50% of industry average of $5 gas. (Need $6 long term price for gas industry). No debt but exploration risk.
·                     Linn Energy (Line) flurry of financial and acquisition activity of mature fields, lower risk - high levels (90%) of hedging. Sports a very attractive 9.7% Yield.
·                     New foreign plays on watch: Harvest Natural Resources (HNR) and FX Energy (FXEN). Note: HRN sports political risk, but a potentially compensating reward. 

We consider Precious metals still expensive. Next week’s price action can be mixed- Silver still has some positive astro, but the broad market’s action may outweigh this.
We continue to largely abstain. 

4. "This is a pleasant feeling, but the question is how long can we maintain this nirvana in market conditions. No one has taken the punch bowl away from the party yet, and it feels like you are getting the best of both worlds.”
Andrew Pyle, markets commentator, ScotiaMcLeod
HW: Possibly until next week or as long as the week after! 

"It put back a wall of worry. That's a good thing from the point of view of continuing this rally. It's a refreshing pause."
James Paulsen, chief investment strategist, Wells Capital Management
HW: Let me see if I understand this right- good new is good news, and bad news is also good. Gotcha! 

"You're getting a sloppy, ugly market and economy, but [they] clearly have an upward bias. A year from now, the market will be higher."
Stephen Wood, chief market strategist, Russell Investments
HW: Perhaps so, but over the next four months they are very likely to be (much) LOWER! 

5. New Dow high ahead? Happy talk feeds sheep 

Why the Stock Market May Be Topping 

The insiders pick up their selling 

6. READER: Will this late April's selloff in the DJ be a good opportunity to buy quality  Dividend stocks, or should I continue to wait for the 4th market marker?  Will this be a buying opportunity or should I just nibble for now? 
HW: Given that we may see a two stage drop with more to come in the Summer, I prefer to err on the side of caution.  On the other hand if markets are sufficiently down, and there is value, nothing wrong with nibbling as a gourmet and not stuffing yourself like a glutton! 

READER: In light of the big DOWN day on Friday and charges against GOLDMAN SACHS are you expecting next week to be a continuation of a "bloody" Stock Market correction downward! And, are you forecasting Gold to also continue downward with the stock market?
HW:  We took some short term trading profits on Friday.  We plan to be adding shorts this week especially after Tuesdays earnings are out of the way.
Gold has a mixed picture, slightly positive, but then followed by more negative aspects. I see the next gold rally as a good time to partially exit if you are heavily exposed. Otherwise, remain ready to add at hopefully better i.e. lower prices. 

READER: You said some time ago there was no clear astro for Gold in 2010.Still you believe gold will be higher in the autumn. Why so?
HW: I said there were mixed astro indications for gold in H1 2010.  I believe gold will be higher for fundamental, seasonal as well as astrological reasons.