WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: APRIL 12, 2010
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
 

1. ARE WE THERE YET?
Here come the profit reports- THE 64K QUESTION: Will 1Q earnings season exceed expectations and deliver positive forward guidance? Earnings Growth: Too Good to Last?- Yes!
Additionally volatility comes next week due to April’s Options Expiration.  Perhaps even more important is Tuesday April 13th, the third of four Market Markers.
We will be watching markets very closely on April 13th. - not only will markets react to Monday’s Alcoa (AA) earnings AMC, but to the 8.30 am International Trade figures, Tuesday’s Intel earnings AMC, and/or anticipating Wednesday’s CPI, Retail Sales or JP Morgan (JPM)’s earnings.                                

2.                               We are less than 30 days away from our projected correction (long over due fundamentally).

3.                               We are in zone next week up to early May centering on APRIL 22-28.

            So if we are right, there is very little time left to act.
 

Note: 4th and final Market Marker is May 28th.

 

TRADERS: Wear Trading Traders on Tuesday our third of 4 market markets! 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until 2011. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped US economy until 2012 to 2015.
  

FAIR VALUE:   DOW9022 NAS 1858 SPX 934
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L2/S3

 
KEY DATES:    APRIL 13,14,16; 22-28
DJIA:                11000 PIVOT
SPX:                1200 PIVOT
NASDAQ:         2450 PIVOT
JUNE GOLD     1163 PIVOT 1120 SUPPORT  1177 RESISTANCE?
MAY SILVER:   18.10 PIVOT
MAY OIL:          S1 84 S2 83 S3 80  86 RESISTANCE?
US$                  80.60 PIVOT 

Market Marker Sentiment is changing March to June 2010.
So Far: Markets begin optimistically but reality sends them back to neutral/slightly positive.
Tuesday April 13 is the third of four Market Markers.

2009 CLOSE:           DJIA  10428 SPX  1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 0 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
US BANK FAILURES TO DATE: 42   

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. Interest rates to rise in US 

We have been recommending TIPS 103 OB as worth accumulating again in defensive portfolios. 

3. The Gold:Silver Ratio: Is gold too high, or perhaps silver too low? 

With the gold:silver ratio still above its historic norm, will silver start to play catch-up? 

Gold can benefit from increased geopolitical risk 

Unlike Oil, there are solid underlying demand fundamental reasons, e.g. inflationary expectations for Gold and Silver to be in rally mode. Yet, we still believe both are expensive and over priced at the current time.
Be that as it may, should they not correct either seasonally, or with a forthcoming market correction, we will belatedly join the rally late, albeit modestly, and with one eye to exiting.
 

4.  Should You Have a Shine for Gold? 

Stock Bulls Increase With Share Buyback Spending Signaled by Profits Surge 

20 Great Businesses, 20 Cheap Stocks 

5. “We’ve had a better than expected run in the market and at some point the market will correct itself.”
David Crawford, fund manager, Octopus Investments
HW: And that time is coming soon and is expected within the next 30 days. 

“We’ve come back from the brink fairly meaningfully, we’ve seen huge recovery in the value of risk assets.  What we still have are intermediate and justifiable concerns around sovereign credit, around the structural unemployment issues.”
Tobias Levkovich, U.S. equity strategist, Citigroup
HW: Yes indeed one should.

“There’s cash sitting there, waiting to come in later, which will then later help buoy both businesses and stocks. This bull market will carry on for several years."
Kenneth Fisher, chairman, Fisher Investments
HW:  That is Ben’s and Obama’s dream is it not?
 

6. READER: GOLD/SILVER pulled back to around $1086.  But they are not pulling back and further.  They've been going up.  So, are you ready to re-think the idea of going LONG Gold/Silver as opposed to waiting for a pullback under $1,100?  It sure seems like you're missing a rally in these metals?  What say you?
HW: Yes it does.  It will be interesting to see if gold corrects on Monday/Tuesday.  I still don’t know how gold/silver will react should markets drop over the next 30 days as we expect.
If appropriate I will buy a few undervalued s gold and silver small and microcaps but without much vigor i.e. if it doesn’t correct before going to 1220-1240 and I will have largely missed this (part) of the move. 

READER:   For a long time GOLD and the STOCK MARKETS have moved in the same direction -- UP or DOWN together.  So, if you are forecasting the stock markets to go down in the coming weeks...isn't it likely that GOLD will have to go down, too?  Is this the basic reason for why you are telling subscribers like me to "wait for a better price" to BUY into Gold/Silver?  If so, I'd rather error on the side of patience.
HW: That has been the case up until recently. But gold has started to trade on its own, or rather less dependant on the markets and US dollar.  Clearly there are signs of inflation ahead so as I told clients  last month who wanted to buy- while I saw Gold and Silver (potentially) move down in the SHORT TERM, I believe they will be HIGHER in the FALL! 

READER: Gold move up to down, down to up, both sideways How do you see Gold Range for trading in April to end of June 2010?
Based on technical analysis and Astrology.
HW: It is mixed trading, but its range is not clear to us just yet.  We still do not see gold above 1240 at this time and we believe it can drop below 1100 again. 

READER: Starting Monday the Earth was hit by a series of Coronal Mass Emissions which were the strongest in over three years.  The CME's produced a spectacular multi colored aurora show at both the North and South poles and lower latitudes.
According to an Atlanta Fed study the CME's are also associated with temporary weakness in stock prices in affected countries.  The usual lag is about 3-4 days.  The Fed paper gave no reason for the hysteresis.
http://spaceweather.com
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18735-earth-struck-by-most-powerful-space-storm-in-three-years.html
The paper by Robotti and Krivelyova is here: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=375702
HW: Thank you for this info.

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