1. APRIL MARKETS
2.
UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3.
GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4.
QUOTES
5.
ON THE WEB
6.
LETTERS
2.
We are
less than 30 days away from our projected correction (long over due
fundamentally).
3.
We are
in zone next week up to early May centering on APRIL 22-28.
So if
we are right, there is very little time left to act.
Note: 4th
and final Market Marker is May 28th.
TRADERS:
Wear Trading Traders on Tuesday our third of 4 market markets!
INVESTORS:
My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and
only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value
pricing.
Invest
only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until
2011.
Soberly
prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped
FAIR VALUE: DOW9022 NAS 1858 SPX 934
LONG/SHORT
PORTFOLIO: L2/S3
KEY DATES: APRIL
13,14,16; 22-28
DJIA: 11000 PIVOT
SPX: 1200 PIVOT
NASDAQ: 2450 PIVOT
JUNE GOLD 1163
PIVOT 1120 SUPPORT 1177 RESISTANCE?
MAY SILVER: 18.10
PIVOT
MAY OIL: S1 84 S2 83 S3 80 86 RESISTANCE?
US$ 80.60
PIVOT
Market Marker Sentiment is changing
March to June 2010.
So Far:
Markets begin optimistically but reality sends them back to neutral/slightly
positive.
Tuesday
April 13 is the third of four Market Markers.
2009 CLOSE:
DJIA 10428
SPX 1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:
DJIA 8776,
SPX 903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:
DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 &
NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:
DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 &
NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:
DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ
2205
DJIA:
7 ~ FV 0 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
US BANK FAILURES TO DATE:
42
THINK
TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE
RISK.
2. Interest rates to rise in US
We have been recommending TIPS 103
Gold
can benefit from increased geopolitical risk
Unlike Oil, there are solid underlying demand fundamental
reasons, e.g. inflationary expectations for Gold and Silver to be in rally
mode. Yet, we still believe both are expensive and over priced at the current
time.
Be that as it may, should they not correct either
seasonally, or with a forthcoming market correction, we will belatedly join the
rally late, albeit modestly, and with one eye to exiting.
4. Should You
Have a Shine for Gold?
Stock
Bulls Increase With Share Buyback Spending Signaled by Profits Surge
20 Great
Businesses, 20 Cheap Stocks
5. “We’ve had a better than expected run in the market and at
some point the market will correct itself.”
David
Crawford, fund manager, Octopus Investments
HW:
And that time is coming soon and is expected within the next 30 days.
“We’ve
come back from the brink fairly meaningfully, we’ve seen huge recovery in the
value of risk assets. What we still have
are intermediate and justifiable concerns around sovereign credit, around the
structural unemployment issues.”
Tobias
Levkovich,
HW:
Yes indeed one should.
“There’s
cash sitting there, waiting to come in later, which will then later help buoy
both businesses and stocks. This bull market will carry on for several years."
Kenneth
Fisher, chairman, Fisher Investments
HW: That is Ben’s and Obama’s dream is it not?
6. READER: GOLD/SILVER pulled
back to around $1086. But they are not pulling back and further.
They've been going up. So, are you ready to re-think the idea of
going LONG Gold/Silver as opposed to waiting for a pullback under $1,100?
It sure seems like you're missing a rally in these metals? What say
you?
HW: Yes it does. It will be interesting
to see if gold corrects on Monday/Tuesday. I still don’t know how
gold/silver will react should markets drop over the next 30 days as we expect.
If appropriate I will buy a few undervalued s
gold and silver small and microcaps but without much vigor i.e. if it doesn’t
correct before going to 1220-1240 and I will have largely missed this (part) of
the move.
READER: For a long time GOLD and the STOCK
MARKETS have moved in the same direction -- UP or DOWN together. So, if
you are forecasting the stock markets to go down in the coming weeks...isn't it
likely that GOLD will have to go down, too? Is this the basic reason for
why you are telling subscribers like me to "wait for a better price"
to BUY into Gold/Silver? If so, I'd rather error on the side of patience.
HW: That has been the case up until
recently. But gold has started to trade on its own, or rather less dependant on
the markets and US dollar. Clearly there are signs of inflation ahead so
as I told clients last month who wanted
to buy- while I saw Gold and Silver (potentially) move down in the SHORT TERM,
I believe they will be HIGHER in the FALL!
READER: Gold move up to down, down to up, both
sideways How do you see Gold Range for trading in April to end of June 2010?
Based on technical analysis and
Astrology.
HW: It is mixed trading, but its
range is not clear to us just yet. We
still do not see gold above 1240 at this time and we believe it can drop below
1100 again.
READER: Starting Monday
the Earth was hit by a series of Coronal Mass Emissions which were the
strongest in over three years. The CME's produced a spectacular multi
colored aurora show at both the North and South poles and lower latitudes.
According to an Atlanta Fed study the CME's are also associated with temporary
weakness in stock prices in affected countries. The usual lag is about
3-4 days. The Fed paper gave no reason for the hysteresis.
http://spaceweather.com
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18735-earth-struck-by-most-powerful-space-storm-in-three-years.html
The paper by Robotti and Krivelyova is here: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=375702
HW: Thank you for this info.
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