1. MARCH MARKETS
2.
UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3.
GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4.
QUOTES
5.
ON THE WEB
6.
LETTERS
4/26 Saturn opposing
Uranus.
If markets stay over valued, this is likely to be a Sudden
(Uranus) Drop (Saturn). Coming post
April 15th Tax deadline, perhaps it will be the “surprise” of
extremely low US tax revenues (corporate and personal) that will remove much of
the current short term bullishness.
5/23 Jupiter opposing Saturn
These are THE planets of business. This 20 year cycle is a
mainstay of forecasting social, political and economic changes. Beginning in 2000 (conjunction), its opposition
suggests a major challenge and potential turning point. In global stock and bond markets, we may see
a break down (or break out) of the current trading ranges.
Note: Major cycles are in effect for weeks or months and can
affect markets just before, as well as after, the exact aspect.
Analysis: Mark-to-market accounting battle is
about to heat up
The Financial Accounting Standards Board is expected to
propose an expansion of banks' use of market value for loans and other
financial assets, sources said. The proposal would affect banks' balance
sheets, income statements and measures used by investors to assess financial
institutions.
HW: This potential market time bomb would
end current bullish fantasies pronto!
But even “worse”, Fed
must reveal bailout records, information on which banks got government
loans to survive financial crisis may become public information. Imagine that!
TRADERS:
We continue to favor selling on rallies as per the ¼ Market Marker Day. 2/4 Market Marker Day is March 30.
INVESTORS:
My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and
only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value
pricing.
Invest
only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until
2011.
Soberly
prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped
FAIR VALUE: DOW 8933 NAS 1838 SPX 925
LONG/SHORT
PORTFOLIO: L2/S3
KEY DATES: MARCH
22, 26/29
DJIA: 10550 SUPPORT 10850 RESISTANCE
SPX: 1130 SUPPORT 1180 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: 2400 PIVOT 2440 RESISTANCE
JUNE GOLD 1120
PIVOT S1 1110 S2 1093 S3 1080 RESISTANCE 1041
MAY SILVER: 17.25
PIVOT 15.75 SUPPORT 18 RESISTANCE
MAY OIL: 79.50/82
DUAL PIVOTS
US$ 80 PIVOT 82.25 RESISTANCE
Market Marker Sentiment is changing
March to June 2010. So Far: Markets begin optimistically but
reality sends them back to neutral.
2009 CLOSE:
DJIA 10428
SPX 1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:
DJIA 8776,
SPX 903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:
DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 &
NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:
DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 &
NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:
DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ
2205
DJIA:
6 ~ FV 0 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
US BANK FAILURES TO DATE:
37
THINK
TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE
RISK.
2. Fed
May Boost Discount Rate Before Next Meeting, Economists Say
HW: Astrologers agree by the end of April or the next FOMC
meeting.
3. Waiting
for silver's big break
We don’t believe we will have to continue
to wait until the end of April for precious metal prices to become more
attractive to long term buyers.
I would not be surprised to see another gold
test of 1080 support and Gold and Silver closer to Fair Value pricing.
4. "What's been good recently is basically the lack of
news."
Jason
Pride, director of investment strategy, Glenmede
HW:
“Out of sight, out of mind” is dangerously short sighted.
“There’s
nothing here to stop the stock rally.”
James
Paulsen, chief investment strategist, Wells Capital Management
HW:
Wanna bet? By or before the end of April/early May I would expect to collect!
“The
surprise rate hike in
Ronald
Leven, Executive Director, Morgan Stanley
HW:
More than about time!
Timing
Is Everything in a Riot
VIX
Doesn't Work as Signal for Returns in S&P 500, Birinyi Research Shows
6. READER: You say we should buy our shorts
before end of April. May and June has a very negative astro? Is May worst?
Technically the market is very overbought, mostly QQQQ.
HW: I would be stepping in this trade with 1/3 in March (we have already), 1/3
in April and we are not sure yet for our third and final entry.
The end of April is fairly negative for QQQQ.
READER: When the
Rubber Dollar Hits Dr. Ben’s Helicopter
There are two forms of inflation:
1. Currency inflation, as in
2. Credit inflation or dept infl. See article. We will soon get a terrible
deflation ending in a crash. The main reason is credit inflation.
HW: Not happy
thoughts. Whether this is true or not, I don’t know.
READER: Very
Interesting! Doug Casey on
Surviving Financial Apocalypse Now
HQ: More
happy thoughts.’
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