1. MARCH MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. NEW MOON, NEW MARKET?

Last Friday was the first of our four key dates that will determine H2 2010 market marker sentiment. March 12 was basically a wash with markets initially enthusiastic about Retail Sales, and then tempered by dour Consumer Sentiment numbers. Even though we have both the FOMC and options expiration this coming week, we issued the first of three (four?) WSNW Sell Alerts before May 28.
 

WSNW Alert 11am Friday March 12

We are beginning our [market] shorts (put buying, call writing) for May and June today.
We are doing the first of either 3 or 4 sells before the end of April.  Markets may be higher, but we are comfortable to START TO BUILD SHORTS NOW.
DJIA 10605       MOC 10624
SPX 1148         MOC 1150
NASDAQ 2362  MOC 2368

 Note: Short term traders may be stopped out and then re-enter before March 30th.
However, Investors should begin to raise cash levels, write covered calls and/or buy put protection.
Positional traders should use this week to begin to build positions for an expected market correction before June.
 

FASHIONS AND 2010 MARKETS PART II

Fashion's New Muse: the CEO
Gucci, Dolce & Gabbana and Other Designers Embrace the Pantsuit and 'Matchy-Matchy' Style.
Market Translation: Investors will return to business basics and portfolios should include significant diversification. 

Style Endures as The World's Biggest Stars Celebrate In Platinum Jewelry at the 82nd Annual Academy Awards
Market Translation: Given China’s growing fascination with Platinum Jewelry, PPLT as well as gold may be worth including in longer term portfolios. 

Au Revoir, Paris Fashion Week

The Paris shows ended on a high, thanks in no small part to Karl Lagerfeld, who imported a massive iceberg from Scandinavia…

But the talk of the town at the end of Paris was undoubtedly Louis Vuitton. Marc Jacobs has a knack for turning the fashion dialogue on a dime, and he did so by casting well-rounded, full-bosomed women like Laetitia Casta, Adriana Lima and Elle Macpherson to show off his poitrine-enhancing corsets, ’50s skirts and flared coats. In the past few years, the need for using healthy women on the runways has become more apparent than ever, as designers have adopted the disturbing tendency of booking a gaggle of interchangeable teenage models who sometimes look like they have yet to reach the cusp of puberty.

Market translation:  Europe (and the euro?) will remain economically challenged, with northern Europe and Norway outperforming the South…

It is becoming fashionable for fund managers to favor healthy (profitable) Blue Chips with dividends over Nasdaq start ups.

KEY DATES:    MARCH 15, 18. 22
DJIA:                10550 PIVOT
SPX:                1150 PIVOT
NASDAQ:         2350 PIVOT 2400 RESISTANCE
JUNE GOLD     1120 PIVOT S1 1111  S2 1100 S3 1080  R1 1125 R2 1144 R3 1180
MAY SILVER:   17 &17.25 DUAL PIVOTS S1 1650 R2 1550 R3 1525 1780 RESISTANCE
MAY OIL:          74 TO 84
US$                  79 SUPPORT 82.25 RESISTANCE   

Market Marker Sentiment begins to changes March 12 to June 2010.  So Far: Markets begin optimistically but reality sends them back to neutral.
2009 CLOSE:           DJIA  10428 SPX  1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       6 ~ FV 1 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
US BANK FAILURES TO DATE: 30   
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.  Before the end of April, keep higher cash levels and/or buy May/June put protection or Bear ETF’s, write covered calls etc.. 

3.  Gold Demand: Not What You Think 

The most tax-efficient way to own gold  

Currently Gold has a short term range of $1080 to $1180, while Silver’s is $15 to $18. Gold’s intermediate term range is $960 to $1240.
Our current Fair Value of gold is $1015. 

4. “We’re at the second stage of the recovery. We’ll see the recovery continuing this year, but we’ll see more moderate growth. The valuation metrics we look at suggest equities are fairly valued and in some cases cheap.”
Richard Lacaille, chief investment officer, State Street Global Advisers (London)
HW: Our view is different. 

“If you look behind the trade numbers, exports and imports both fell.  The contraction in imports and exports does not play into the growth story. That’s why risk currencies are selling off and the dollar is rising.”
Kathy Lien, Director of Currency Research, GFT Forex
HW: And the stock market should not rally. 

"The market is taking a pause after having a positive bias over the last few weeks."
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist, Janney Montgomery Scott
HW: I believe it is more about the new Market Marker Sentiment calculations that begins tomorrow (1/4). 

5. Record Advance in S&P 500 Index Futures Shows Confidence in U.S. Economy
HW: Contrarian Investors may hold a different view. 

Why Stocks That Raise Dividends Trounce the Market
HW: Yes.

12 Reasons to Be Bullish About Stocks This Year
HW: vs. at least 24 to be neutral or bearish! 

6. READER: Short of what? DOW? Gold?
HW: Friday’s WSNW alert was about Market shorts. It may not be wrong also to short gold, but that is much riskier.  Silver shorts in 2010, we only do in short term day trading, as they are far riskier than gold shorts! 

READER: You have spoken favorably about silver's prospects in 2010.  Assuming your hunches about upcoming downturns are correct, do you envision silver declining along with the rest of the market during 1) the March/April period ahead and 2) in Q3-Q4 as investors sober up to the reality of limited recovery?
HW: I don’t know.  We do strongly believe Silver will be $20 by Fall.  Whether it retreats to retest $15 first with a forthcoming market correction is not clear.  Hence we mostly continue to wait. 

READER:  $950 gold?
HW: Sorry, those were old WSNW numbers. I was in a rush when I sent out last weeks newsletter. This was corrected on our daily and commodity service posts to:
APRIL GOLD    1120 PIVOT S1 1100  S2 1080 S3 1060  R1 1144  R2 1160 R3 1180
APRIL OIL:       79 PIVOT 78 SUPPORT R1 80  R2 82 R3 84 

READER: How do you see gold in Q2 2010? Gold seasonally going down, any idea?
HW: Gold seasonality usually begins late in Q2 and ends late Summer. I am not sure how valid it will be this year. We see a mixed (trading) picture for gold in Q2 2010.
Of more importance is the fact that gold is still over valued, along with the stock market.  Hence, we continue to wait before investing and we are trading shorter time frames.