1. MARCH MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. NEW MARKET MARKER SENTIMENT: MARCH 15 TO MAY 28

Markets from March to May can be wild as a new market zeitgeist is established.
In June we will have a new market sentiment based on either people believing the economy is in recovery or in a double dip.
Last Friday markets acted as if the cup were half full with expected slow job growth seen to be stabilizing. 
Note: 1.15 million temporary workers are being hired H1 2010. This should have the biggest impact on payroll figures April through June. Thereafter, it will be subtracted (and probably ignored) in the months following the census completion. 

US markets are very close to the top (resistance) of their current intermediate ranges:
DJIA 10650-10750, NASDAQ 2350 AND SPX 1140-1150. 

Given there are so many potential global hot spots: Greece, Iran etc., National debt to be higher than White House forecast, CBO says and the Spring astro, I am still looking for the right positional short – time and price (May puts), but if in March or April is still not clear. 

Bottom line: Maintain high cash levels. 

GUEST HYDE PARK CORNER: Why a VAT Tax Is Where It's At

 
KEY DATES:    MARCH 12
DJIA:                10550 PIVOT
SPX:                  1140 PIVOT  S1 1110 S2 1000 S3 1198
NASDAQ:        2250 SUPPORT 2350 RESISTANCE
GDXJ                 25 PIVOT
APRIL GOLD  1120 PIVOT S1 1100  S2 1080 S3 1060  R1 1144  R2 1160 R3 1180
MAY SILVER:   PIVOT 17 S1 16.50 S2 16 S3 15.50 17.50 RESISTANCE
APRIL OIL:     79 PIVOT 78 SUPPORT R1 80  R2 82 R3 84
US$                     82 PIVOT S1 79.50  S2 78 S3 77.50  84 RESISTANCE 

Market Marker Sentiment begins to change March to June 2010.  
2009 CLOSE:           DJIA  10428 SPX  1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       4 ~ FV 1 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
US BANK FAILURES TO DATE: 26       
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. ASX Small to MidCaps
Given Australia is one of our favorite 2010 global investments; we especially enjoyed last week’s ASX New York event.
Subject to due diligence research, we were impressed by the presentations of the following three companies:
Lynas (LYC.AX) World class Rare earth explorer and developer;
Medusa Mining (MML.AX) Philippine gold mining under $200 an ounce!
Navitas (NVT.AX).  I ldidn’t know that the education sector is number two globally after the health care sector.  Even if not true, this is an interesting niche company. 

We also appreciated the updates from
Thai Gold producer Kingsgate Consolidate (KCN.AX), which was our favorite of the 2009 ASX conference and
Industrea (IDL.AX) A well run and diversified mining service company which is both on our recommended core Australian mining sector and China story (What China buys) lists. 

3. Keeping 5% of portfolio in gold isn't a bad idea as a hedge 

BUY OR SELL PDAC May 7-10?
As an Investor, I would be researching stocks to accumulate, but as a Trader I am more inclined to be selling! 

4. “Investors come back to the market when things start to improve.”
Madelynn Matlock, manager, Huntington International Equity Fund
HW:  Of course, when they are “wrong”, shorting bears growl hearty and happy. 

“As a financial analyst, I have learned that all of the real juicy stuff can be found in a company's footnotes.  I'm not claiming to have read all of the 2009 Financial Report of the U.S. Government, but the footnotes and the statement of the comptroller general of the United States are alarming.  Anybody reading them would come to the conclusion that the US government is a short.“
Howard Penney, Managing Director, Hedgeye
HW: Sadly true. 

“A lot of people are not seeing the kind of job gains or income gains that they are looking for. There is going to be a lot of dissatisfaction with politicians and that is giving rise to this political angst.
John Silvia, chief economist, Wells Fargo Securities
HW: This zeitgeist should HIGHLY influence markets late summer on. 

5.  U.S. Investors Looking Abroad Should Look To Canada
Northern Exposure offers diversification plus stability. 

Bernanke Makes 2-Year Treasuries Sweetest Spot as Fed Readies Asset Sales 

Bill Gross: How a global debt crisis trickles down to investors 

6. READER: It seems "unexpected" events can be unexpectedly positive as well.
HW: Which events are you referring to that were unexpected and positive?
READER: Most notably Greece's debt issuance being 3x oversubscribed, and this morning's payroll report.
HW: What good news?:  The real rate of unemployment is over 20%- see http://www.shadowstats.com  and $5BN Euro offering of 10-year notes sold at (300 basis points above Berlin). Meanwhile the German economic minister says Germany will not be offering Greece "even one cent."

READER: I see you recommend silver during 2010 due to good astrological signs do you see natural gas as a good play for 2010 as well.
HW: Yes and no. Currently, I prefer natural gas stocks to natural gas.
However, I would think the second half of the year NG should do well enough. 

READER: Our market here in Australia is confusing. I have been expecting a correction since June and I'm still holding out resulting in missing out on very good run.
HW: The Australian horoscope is very strong in 2010. However, I suspect many of their gold stocks are expensive on an international basis. I will be going to the March 3 2010 ASX Small to Mid Caps Conference in New York. 

READER: Economic Recovery: "Firmly On Track"? Faith vs. Facts
HW: I don’t disagree.