WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: MARCH 1, 2010
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. MARCH MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
 

  

1. WHAT ME WORRY? 

·         List of Troubled Banks at 16-Year Peak, FDIC Says

·         Consumer Confidence Index Hits the Dreaded -50 Mark

·         New Jobless Claims Jumped to 496000 as Heavy Snow Caused Rise in Layoffs

·          Will the Fed stop buying mortgage backed securities?

·         European debt worries: Why fret about Greece? | The Economist

·         'State of Catastrophe' Declared in Chile After Massive 8.8-Magnitude Quake
 

The above list is clearly minimal as I could easily add another dozen or more potentially market destabilizing and worrisome events.
Still cynics may note that the worse the economic news, e.g. Thursdays jobs number, the more buying that often mysteriously appears thereafter.
:)
None-the-less, the Bottom line is
The Economic Recovery Was an Illusion  and stock markets should reflect that fact within 60 days.
 

Note: Market Marker Sentiment begins to change March to June 2010.  
Until then, before the end of April and possibly as soon as early March, the stock market threat level becomes Elevated, or Yellow!
 

ASTRODATES
3/7  Venus enters Aries
3/10 Mars SD
3/15 New Moon 5.01 pm ET
3/20 Spring Equinox 1.32 pm ET
3/29 Full Moon 10.25 pm ET 

TRADERS: Possibly as soon as Monday, we may slowly begin to set up positional market shorts, especially if a weak rally comes first. 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until 2011. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped US economy for the next two to seven years.
 

FAIR VALUE:   DOW 8868 NAS 1800 SPX 908
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L2/S3

 
KEY DATES:    MARCH 1
DJIA:                10347/10450 DUAL PIVOTS
SPX:                1100 PIVOT 1050 SUPPORT
NASDAQ:         2200 PIVOT 
GDX:                40 SUPPORT?

APril
GOLD     1111 PIVOT 1055 SUPPORT 1140 RESISTANCE
MAY SILVER:   16.50 PIVOT S1 16 S2 15.25 S3 14.80  R1 16.88 R2 1700  R3 17.50
APRIL OIL:        79 PIVOT S1 78 S 76 S3 73 R1 80  R2 81 R3 82
US$                  80 PIVOT .82 (84?) RESISTANCE  

Market Marker Sentiment begins to change March to June 2010.  
2009 CLOSE:           DJIA  10428 SPX  1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       6 ~ FV 1 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. We plan to slowly begin accumulating silver stocks this month.
We also are looking for some downside market protection by midmonth and/or April (May puts?) 

3. Profiting From Dips In Gold And Oil 

Skip the gold medal, go for gold stocks, says Midas Fund's Thomas Winmill 

Given the Gold/XAU Ratio is 6.93 and Gold/Silver Ratio 67.79, should gold be neutral or positive, we prefer silver stocks to gold stocks and gold stocks to gold.  

4. "Investors are still having some major concerns. I think we may have to get used to fits and starts. That pattern may last through the first half of the year, until people get to a point where they can be sure that the U.S. economy isn't really turning back in the wrong direction."
Art Hogan, chief market analyst, Jefferies
HW: That is not likely to happen in 2011, but later.
 

"Consumers are having a bumpy start to the year. They took another minor hit to their wealth as the stock market took a breather, and labor market conditions are still difficult."
Julia Coronado, senior
U.S. economist, BNP Paribas
HW: This is the bottom line for the US economy which is 70% consumer driven and dominated. 

“The economy is going into a little bit of a fits-and- starts period,” Trust We don’t see any job creation coming along. That’s by far our biggest concern.”

Michael Mullaney, manager, Fiduciary Trust

HW: I predict you will be concerned for some time.

 5. Start Looking at the Short Side of Things 

 The New Normal
Pimco says it's time to load up on stocks.
 

How rising interest rates could end up backfiring 

6. READER: In case you missed it: http://www.roubini.com/analysis/104274.php
Will Silver Always Be Second to Gold?
“Though silver's long-term fundamentals point to a life of underperformance versus gold, silver has a chance to outperform in the short term. Both technical and fundamental drivers have built a case for a silver rally. Silver may never reach the price level of gold but it will gain more relative its 2008 trough.
Several factors point to a resumption of silver's run-up in 2010. From a technical perspective, a deeper liquidation of long positions as a share of open interest gives silver more upside potential than other precious metals.”
HW: I agree, although he omits the all important Astrological driver of Silver in 2010!
 

READER: I think every country in the western world will go into chaos and anarchy but not to the same extent. 
USA will probably be very affected. Best countries? May be Switzerland, Germany and Norway.
Maybe you soon should try one of these countries for investments?
HW: Maybe but currently I prefer Australia (2010) and Canada (2011).

 

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