1. MARCH MARKETS
2.
UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3.
GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4.
QUOTES
5.
ON THE WEB
6.
LETTERS
1. WHAT ME WORRY?
· List of Troubled Banks at 16-Year Peak, FDIC Says
· Consumer Confidence Index Hits the Dreaded -50 Mark
· New Jobless Claims Jumped to 496000 as Heavy Snow Caused Rise in
Layoffs
· Will the Fed stop buying mortgage backed
securities?
· European
debt worries: Why fret about Greece?
| The Economist
· 'State of Catastrophe' Declared in Chile After Massive
8.8-Magnitude Quake
The
above list is clearly minimal as I could easily add another dozen or more
potentially market destabilizing and worrisome events.
Still
cynics may note that the worse the economic news, e.g. Thursdays jobs number,
the more buying that often mysteriously appears thereafter. :)
None-the-less,
the Bottom line is The
Economic Recovery Was an Illusion
and stock markets should reflect that fact within 60 days.
Note: Market Marker Sentiment begins to change March to June
2010.
Until
then, before the end of April and possibly as soon as early March, the stock
market
threat level becomes Elevated, or Yellow!
ASTRODATES
3/7 Venus enters Aries
3/10
Mars SD
3/15 New Moon 5.01 pm ET
3/20 Spring Equinox 1.32 pm ET
3/29 Full Moon 10.25 pm ET
TRADERS:
Possibly as soon as Monday, we may slowly begin to set up positional market
shorts, especially if a weak rally comes first.
INVESTORS:
My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and
only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value
pricing.
Invest
only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until
2011.
Soberly
prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped
FAIR VALUE: DOW 8868 NAS 1800 SPX 908
LONG/SHORT
PORTFOLIO: L2/S3
KEY DATES: MARCH
1
DJIA: 10347/10450 DUAL PIVOTS
SPX: 1100 PIVOT 1050 SUPPORT
NASDAQ: 2200 PIVOT
GDX: 40 SUPPORT?
APril GOLD 1111 PIVOT 1055 SUPPORT
1140 RESISTANCE
MAY SILVER: 16.50
PIVOT S1 16 S2 15.25 S3 14.80 R1 16.88
R2 1700 R3 17.50
APRIL OIL: 79
PIVOT S1 78 S 76 S3 73 R1 80 R2 81 R3 82
US$ 80
PIVOT .82 (84?) RESISTANCE
Market Marker Sentiment begins to
change March to June 2010.
2009 CLOSE:
DJIA 10428
SPX 1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:
DJIA 8776,
SPX 903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:
DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 &
NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:
DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:
DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ
2205
DJIA:
6 ~ FV 1 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK
TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE
RISK.
2. We plan to slowly begin accumulating silver stocks this
month.
We also are looking for some downside market protection by
midmonth and/or April (May puts?)
3. Profiting
From Dips In Gold And Oil
Skip
the gold medal, go for gold stocks, says Midas Fund's Thomas Winmill
Given the Gold/XAU Ratio is 6.93
and Gold/Silver Ratio 67.79, should gold be neutral or positive, we prefer
silver stocks to gold stocks and gold stocks to gold.
4. "Investors are still having some major concerns. I think
we may have to get used to fits and starts. That pattern may last through the
first half of the year, until people get to a point where they can be sure that
the
Art
Hogan, chief market analyst, Jefferies
HW:
That is not likely to happen in 2011, but later.
"Consumers
are having a bumpy start to the year. They took another minor hit to their
wealth as the stock market took a breather, and labor market conditions are
still difficult."
HW:
This is the bottom line for the
“The economy is going into a little bit of a fits-and-
starts period,” Trust We don’t see any job creation coming along. That’s by far
our biggest concern.”
Michael Mullaney, manager, Fiduciary Trust
HW: I predict you will be concerned for some time.
Pimco says it's time to load up on stocks.
How
rising interest rates could end up backfiring
6. READER: In
case you missed it: http://www.roubini.com/analysis/104274.php
Will Silver Always Be Second to Gold?
“Though silver's long-term fundamentals point
to a life of underperformance versus gold, silver has a chance to outperform in
the short term. Both technical and fundamental drivers have built a case for a
silver rally. Silver may never reach the price level of gold but it will gain
more relative its 2008 trough.
Several factors point to a resumption of silver's run-up in 2010. From a
technical perspective, a deeper liquidation of long positions as a share of
open interest gives silver more upside potential than other precious metals.”
HW: I agree, although he omits the all
important Astrological driver of Silver in 2010!
READER: I think every country in the western
world will go into chaos and anarchy but not to the same extent.
Maybe you soon should try one of these countries for investments?
HW: Maybe but currently I prefer
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