1. FEBRUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

What does Year of Tiger hold? / Economists split in predictions ...

“An old adage among stock company employees and investors says: "In the Year of the Ox, [stock prices] stumble. In the Year of the Tiger, they leap. In the Year of the Rabbit, they jump. It means that stock prices stagger along during the Year of the Ox, turn upward in the following Year of the Tiger and then surge in the following Year of the Rabbit…” 

While there is disagreement as to how well the global economy will perform in 2010, for investment purposes, many Chinese astrologers recommend:

metals & mining, auto, railroad, wind turbine, banking and logging companies.

As for China itself, it is basically well received astrologically. However, Chinese markets, like the US, are overvalued and likely to correct sooner, rather than later.

Finally, for the benefit of my non-Chinese WSNW readers, here are the classic Money Related Traditions for Celebrating Chinese New Year. 

INVESTMENT ADVICE: CONTINUE TO WAIT
We thought the news last week from Europe and China would be enough to push and hold markets under DJIA 10K.  While this could happen next week, it may take until March/April for more of the SUBSTANTIAL correction to manifest.  Given most markets and commodities are still too expensive relative to our Fair Value models, we still recommend a wait and watching mode. 

GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Leaders must deal with national debt levels, or else our investments will suffer
 

 
KEY DATES:    FEBRUARY 15, 26
DJIA:                10050 PIVOT
SPX:                1040 to 1095 TRADING RANGE
NASDAQ:         2200
XAU:                148 SUPPORT  R1 168  R2 172 R3 175
APRIL GOLD     1160/1105 DUAL PIVOT
MAR SILVER:   14.25 SUPPORT 16.45 RESISTANCE
XOI:                  1007 PIVOT
MAR OIL:          74/75 DUAL PIVOTS
US$                  80 PIVOT R1 81 R2 82 R3 84 

Market Marker Sentiment begins to change March 2010.  
2009 CLOSE:           DJIA  10428 SPX  1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       6 ~ FV 1 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. We are slowly putting together a list of stocks we wish to own if/when markets drop over the next 60-90 days as we forecast. 

3. Gold and Silver are slowly moving closer to our Fair Value targets. Our first Buy trigger is circa US$ .82. (Gold $1012?).  However, now it seems possible we may even see .84! Hence, depending on the price of Gold and Silver at US$ .82, we may recommend only 25-50% first buy. 

4. "Between China and continued concerns about what the EU is going to do about Greece, there are a lot of negatives out there."
Tom Schrader, managing director, Stifel Nicolaus
HW: You betcha! 

 “Much of the market rally since March last year has been fueled by low rates and the immense amount of liquidity that’s out there. Take that away and at best we will have muted returns if not downward adjustments of market values.”
James W. Gaul, money manager, Boston Advisors
HW: We are in 100% agreement. 

“It’s taking everyone by surprise  It’s going to get everybody thinking how much more tightening will we see out of China, and how much the economy could slow. This will obviously impact industrial materials.”
Daniel Brebner, analyst, Deutsche Bank
HW: It is nice to see a rational economic response.
BTW: NOT everyone was taken by surprise. In fact, I am surprised anyone was given that the Chinese  telegraph their moves clearly AND well in advance. 

5. Selective Investing Key for Year of the Tiger 

China-orders-retreat-from-risky-assets 

This Time Is Different, It's Global! 

6. READER: you said you placed a second buy of silver at $13.90 and sell at $16.45. I am confused. Was this physical Silver vs. stocks then? What symbol?
....I did buy shares of SSRI at $16.50....so you expect another drop or time to get in for the long run.....
HW: After execution at $14.80, we placed a second buy GTC which has yet to be executed. I am both trading and investing here and always place orders IN ADVANCE which may or may not be executed.  Should Silver go lower, I will be accumulating more at $13.90.  Should it go up first, I will be selling my first buy at $16.45.
Note: In stock terms, this is similar to placing an order to buy more SSRI circa $15 as well as a sale $20 to $21, rather than as a long term hold to $24-$25. 

READER: I hope (especially because of the CARDINAL CROSS) this Summer -- that you'll give us SILVER subscribers some special help by telling us the best times to ENTER trades. And, the right price to pay for them.
HW: We do have a separate daily trading edition where we provide that info.
However, we do occasionally mention it here as well.  In any case, we often provide Key Times and Prices pre-highlighted in our weekly newsletter but without handholding.