1. FEBRUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. AFUND H1 2010 INVESTING HYPOTHESIS

1. January will be the H1 2010 Market top.
2. Sell Gold at 1220.
3. By or in March/April we expect stock market lower.
4. By or in early March buy Silver. 

ARE WE THERE YET?
While some short term traders covered and/or reversed on Friday, investors can expect more portfolio damage ahead by/before April.
We see the stock market lower by/before April. Our initial price target is DJIA 9300 to 9600; we may begin to buy, depending on when and how we get there.  If DJIA 8600-8800, we would be more aggressive. 

The Key number to watch is the US$ Index: We reached our P2 target of .8050. If/when we see P3 or .82; we recommend accumulate/buy precious metals.
At or below gold at $1011, we accumulate/buy GOLD and quality precious metal stocks.  

BOTTOM LINE: REMAIN PATIENT
Up until last week, many bulls the recession most likely over, but a full recovery to pre-recessionary levels is still years away.
Most bears, on the other hand, believe in a Double Dip but a full recovery to pre-recessionary levels is still years away.
Note the agreement that a full recovery to pre-recessionary levels is still years away and INVEST ACCORDINGLY: High cash levels, hedging and/or active trading. 

 
KEY DATES:    FEBRUARY 11
DJIA:                10050 PIVOT
SPX:                1033 SUPPORT 1098 RESISTANCE?
NASDAQ:         2150 PIVOT
APRIL GOLD     1060 PIVOT 1011 SUPPORT  R1 1080  R2 1100 R3 1120
MAR SILVER:   16.50 PIVOT S1 15 S2 14 S3 12.80
MARCH OIL:     74 PIVOT 68 SUPPORT
US$                  80.50 PIVOT 82 RESISTANCE 

Market Marker Sentiment begins to change March 2010.  

2009 CLOSE:           DJIA  10428 SPX  1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 2 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. REITs poised for lengthy bull run
HW: Yes, but patience until Spring. 

3. THE YEAR OF SILVER PART II, a partial abstract of my February 2010 Triple Gold Conference presentation on Precious Metals, is now posted on our website. 

Last week, the US$ achieved our P2 trading target of 80.50.  That could be the end of the move (30% probability).  However, our P3 target is .82. Circa there, we plan to reverse.
Gold also is still overvalued (above 1012) and can drop to $950 to $960.  Hence depending on your time frame, shorts can lock in profits now or not. Note: We plan to accumulate/buy within 30 days.
While gold is still overvalued (above $1012), Silver reached our P1 target of $14.80 and we did a first TRADING buy.  At or below gold at $1011, we accumulate/buy GOLD and quality precious metal stocks. 

4. “It’s not yet the time to start buying equities after the recent declines.”
Pearlyn Wong, investment analyst, Bank Julius Baer
HW: From an investing perspective, we agree.

''I'm not hopeful about the years ahead.  First, I see a period of deflation.  This will be followed within two years by wild inflation, as all the liquidity that the Fed has created finally kicks in.  The two periods of deflation and then inflation will inflict tremendous damage on American consumers and it will leave Washington battered and confused.
Richard Russell, editor, Dow Theory Letters
HW: In comparison, I am relatively bullish that we muddle though somewhat.  However, I agree the potential is there for tremendous damage and at the least some SERIOUS damage to many.

 “You will see a fantastic unwinding of the speculative longs the moment rates move up. Commodities most vulnerable will be the ones that are most widely held: copper and oil ... and some very funny financials.”
Jonathan Compton, managing director, Bedlam Asset Management
HW: if not sooner. However, they will go back up medium-long term for fundamental demographic reasons. 

5. ‘Massive glut' blamed for holding back oil prices 

Cocktail Talk: A Gold Turnaround 

Our debt time bomb is ready to go ka-boom 

6. READER: I know you said to wait to see if it [Silver] goes to 14.80, but do you think I ought to buy today anyways?
HW: Wait – don’t chase.  If near the close we are under $15 and haven’t bought, we may.
Note: Later in the day, Silver reached our trading buy of $14.80. We then placed a GTC sell at 16.45 and a second buy at 13.90.