1. JANUARY MARKETS
2.
UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3.
GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4.
QUOTES
5.
ON THE WEB
6.
LETTERS
"Correction
time again."
Michael
Hartnett, chief global equity strategist, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch
HW:
You betcha. We believe it is just a question of how low we go and when before
April 15th.
Even
bullish analysts feel a large number of stocks are overvalued, something I
heartily concur with. Yet US markets are close to, or just below technical
support. Hence, markets could (weakly)
rally early this week or not. However,
Ben is doubly highlighted this week, First with his Wednesday FOMC pulpit
[President Obama’s state of the union address is the same day] Second Bernanke
second term in doubt he will try to prevent
markets from falling much further this week.
Nonetheless we will be bearish Friday/Saturday given the potential
astrological RED alert.
Post
January, from an
intermediate/positional short orientation, we may not see substantial
buying/rebuying until a 10% correction from the 2009 Close or 2010 Highs.
2010
Highs DJIA 10725 SPX 1150
NAS 2320
2009 Close DJIA 10428 SPX 1115 NAS 2269
Warning: - post FOMC/State of the Union
address into this coming weekend represents substantial (Red Alert) market
warnings.
One
good bet is that safe and defensive
investments, as well as liquidity, are likely to be re-emphasized market
virtues.
TRADERS:
Intermediate Term top is likely in. By Friday we recommend betting again on the
short side.
INVESTORS:
My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and
only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value
pricing.
Invest
only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until
2011.
Soberly
prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped
FAIR VALUE: DOW 8900 NAS 1800 SPX 900
LONG/SHORT
PORTFOLIO: L1/S1
KEY DATES: JANUARY
29.30
DJIA: 10200 PIVOT
SPX: 1100 PIVOT 1115 RESISTA
NASDAQ: 2200 PIVOT 2180 SUPPORT?
XAU: 155/164 DUAL PIVOTS
APRIL GOLD 1100
PIVOT 1060 SUPPORT
MAR SILVER: 17.50
PIVOT 16.50 SUPPORT?
XOI:
1070
PIVOTS
MAR OIL: 78
PIVOT 74 SUPPORT?
US$ 77.50 PIVOT R1 79 R2 80 R3
82
Market Marker Sentiment until March
2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The
2009 CLOSE:
DJIA 10428, SPX
1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:
DJIA 8776,
SPX 903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:
DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 &
NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:
DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 &
NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:
DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ
2205
DJIA:
5 ~ FV 1 UV; 4 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK
TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE
RISK.
2. Being a cosmic value investor, it is far too soon for me
to consider long term buying of stocks.
3.
Too
many bulls sabotaged gold
HW:
I thought astro-technicals were primarily responsible!
Will gold be undervalued (under $1011) in or by
February? We continue to wait and hope.
Will silver trade at or under $16.50? While we might do a trading buy there, we
continue to wait impatiently with investing buys $15.50, $14.50 and $12.80.
4. “The surprise is going to be on the upside. Most people are
still fighting that this is a rally. Everyone is erring on the side of
caution.”
Laszlo
Birinyi, Birinyi Associates
HW:
I don’t think so. While I am a fan of contrarian investing, sometimes, like
now, there are valid reasons to err on the side of caution.”
"The
numbers show continued bottom-line improvement, but a much slower top-line
advance. For the recovery to continue, sales will need to increase."
Howard
Silverblatt, senior index analyst, Standard & Poor's
HW:
That is what has been, and will continue to be, missing in H1 2010.
“People
are betting on higher levels of volatility in the short term.”
Carl
Mason, head of
HW:
A reasonable bet.
DO
REALLY BAD TIMES LIE AHEAD?
Portfolio
21’s Top 10 ‘Green’ Companies
6. READER: Our view on
Gold for 2010 is that if it has to test US $ 1500.00 pto latest by December
2010, as predicted - then somewhere during the year in 2010, we expect Gold to
tank to levels of US $ 1020.00 to even US $ 960.00 pto. So please make a note
of the above for your "trading calls".
HW:
Should Paul Volcker effectively replace Ben or Tim, then a $1000 test of
gold will be sooner and not later.
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