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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: JANUARY 18, 2010
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS

 

1. THREE KEY 2010 INVESTMENT QUESTIONS 

               I.      INFLATION, DEFLATION OR BOTH?

             II.      HOW MUCH MORE UPSIDE, IF ANY?

            III.      ANOTHER CORRECTION COMING? IF SO, 10% 20%? 

AFUND VIEW:
I  Both: Deflation (short term) having the upper hand despite Ben.
II 4%-6% potential upside 40% probability.
III Yes: 12%-18% in H1 2010. 

Technically, we are likely to be range bound +/- 300 DJIA until end of January.
Fundamentally, we believe more of the same: Some selective good news but forward projections cloudy and/or difficult. .
Astrologically, post FOMC, end of the month is our next KEY market momentum halt.
BOTTOM LINE: We continue to believe there is better risk/reward (3-1) to favor market bears. 

TRADERS: Short/Intermediate Term top in now or end of month? 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until 2011. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped US economy for the next two to seven years.
 

FAIR VALUE :   DOW 8800 NAS 1800 SPX 898
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S1

KEY DATES:    JANUARY 19, 29, 30
DJIA:                10547 PIVOT 
SPX:                1130 PIVOT 1100 SUPPORT 1160 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:         2291 PIVOT  
XAU:                175 PIVOT 166 SUPPORT 190 RESISTANCE
FEB GOLD       1140 PIVOT S1 1120 S2 1100 S3 1080 1160 RESISTANCE
MAR SILVER:   18 PIVOT 17.50 S1 17 S2 16.50 S3 19 RESISTANCE

XOI:                  1070/1080 DUAL PIVOTS
FEB OIL:           78 PIVOT 73 SUPPORT R1 80  R2 84 R3 85
US$                  77 PIVOT 76 SUPPORT 79 RESISTANCE
 

Market Marker Sentiment until March 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities
may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
2009 CLOSE:           DJIA  10428 SPX  1115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       5 ~ FV 1 UV; 3 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.

 2. Forrester Says Tech Recession Is Over
HW: We agree. This is why Technology along with Natural Resources and some Health Care is our 2010 focus.
Still, we feel current generous Nasdaq pricing has (more than) built in this correct forecast in our view.
 

US REITs Poised to Boost Dividends After Raising $33 Billion

HW: We plan to BEGIN to slowly accumulate a few select REITs midyear..

BUSINESS & BANQUETS
At Sidotti’s first 2010 Microcap Conference we discovered one intriguing Biotech - Sanuwave (SNWV) - which we have added to our watch list. 

AFUND INVESTING WINTER 2010
Given our bearish bias, we remain primarily interested in either special situations or attractive long/short hedging. 

3. "If the dollar strengthens, we're seeing a lot of that risk trade that has been moving into gold--for fear of hypinflation or whatever--start to move out of gold."
Kevin Kerr, editor, Kerr Commodities Watch newsletter
HW: Hopefully we have an opportunity to buy under $1011.
 

At the first annual Dahlman Rose Emerging Miners CEO Conference, host analyst Adam Graf’s theme was:
“Large Gold producers only provide Leverage (to gold), while Junior Miners provide Value AND Leverage.” 
I agree 100%.  One timely source of gold/silver juniors is to research the companies presenting at our upcoming February Triple Gold Conference in New York. 

4. "A lot of people will be reassessing the risk they have in their portfolios with regards to earnings."
Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer, OakBrook Investments
HW: Very timely advice.

 “Everyone was expecting the fourth quarter to be better. I think the market has been taken aback by the fact that it may not have been as good as people had thought."

Brian Battle, vice president, Performance Trust Capital Partners

HW: Not everyone - not me.

 

“Any disappointment will make people rethink their level of risk at this particular stage of the economy. The credit issues here and outside the U.S. clearly have not been fully resolved. That area will be more vulnerable to disappointments.”

Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist, Key Private Bank

HW: We agree- The risk of risk is greater than the potential reward mid term. 

5. Ten money-making investment ideas for 2010

 Time might be right to don a collar 

Treasury Investors Most Bearish in Two Years as Deficits Rise to Records 

6. READER: Re: “Buy Gold” - Your analysis is correct. But on the other hand you say Gold is overpriced at these levels. I am confused at your analysis.
HW:  As a VALUE investor, I find gold overpriced above $1011 currently.  However, as insurance or a portfolio hedge for various risks, e.g. US$, inflation, some investing gold should be owned long term. 

READER: Why Silver over Gold?
HW:  Astrology primarily but also the gold/silver ratio.61.45 is high and projected lower.

 

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