1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
 

AFUND STRONG VIEWS

• January is likely to be the high for H1 2010.
• If markets rally, gold is also likely to rally. Gold can be very mixed (tradable) in 2010 with an extremely wide $950 to $1240 range!
• Upside Oil targets is $91; Downside is below $70. 
• We prefer Silver to Gold and Oil.
• Nasdaq will fall by and in Q2 2010.
• US may or may not rally to 79.50 or 82. Thereafter if these P2 and/or P3 targets are reached, we would sell.
• Favorite countries are Australia and Canada (2011) defensive intermediate/long term investments

BOTTOM LINE: Given markets can rally or drop and that we are in the middle of many trading ranges - Hedge, stand aside or trade very short time frames. 

HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: The U.S. Economy: Not Back to Business as Usual
 

KEY DATES:    JANUARY 13, 15
DJIA:                10550 PIVOT
SPX:                1140 PIVOT
NASDAQ:         2200 SUPPORT 2360 RESISTANCE
XAU:                175 PIVOT  164 SUPPORT  192 RESISTANCE
FEB GOLD       1140 PIVOT
MAR SILVER:   1750 PIVOT 16.40 SUPPORT 18 RESISTANCE
XOI:                  1080 SUPPORT 1140 RESISTANCE
FEB OIL:           80 PIVOT S1 78 S2 76 S3 74
US$                  77 PIVOT   

Market Marker Sentiment until March 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
2009 CLOSE:           DJIA 10428, SPX  115 & NASDAQ 2269
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA  8776,  SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577 
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       6 ~ FV 2 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.  We continue to accumulate some S: 10 SPECULATIVE MICROCAPS and watch precious metals closely. 

3. We are still in dilemma re: buying gold and silver. From a short term and trading perspective, as long at the US$ holds $77, we find both overvalued.

However, Oil above $80 is a positive, plus US govt politics from an intermediate term perspective demand some precious metal portfolio hedges.
Astrologically gold is mixed in H1 2010, while Silver generally very positive (soon).  We still continue to wait for lower prices.  If this view is too common, then we may be forced to take some quick trading buys from higher prices.  Hopefully, we can buy by February and lower prices. Time will tell. 

4. “The stock rally is not sustainable at the current pace. There will be many bad days and periods where the data will leave much to be desired.”
Suki Mann, strategist, Societe Generale
HW: But it is the interpretation of the data that counts and market analysts that wear rose-coloured glasses do not see things as darkly as those that do not! 

"Inflation expectations are creeping up."
Spyros Andreopoulos, global economist, Morgan Stanley
HW: Buy gold? 

"We've got a long and painful healing process ahead.”
Bruce Kasman, chief economist, JPMorgan
HW: You betcha. 

5. Four Reasons to Remain Wary About an Economic Recovery 

Markets: Bubble warning 

Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China 

6. READER: I finally acted this time, unlike when I missed the boat at 12.80. I bought silver a little while back when it hit 16.80.
We will see how far this goes, but oil is sure helping as you indicated it might.  It think it is up from here for a while before a pull back. Perhaps even to gold at 1200. All depends on the dollar remaining stagnant and/or weak.
HW:  While I am still hoping for a better entry, where you bought Silver was well placed as a trade, if not investment.  If $16.80 is not broken by March, you are likely to be home free. 

READER: This would agree with your assessment of much higher prices in 2010 at some time.
SILVER NEWS - Silver prices will hit new highs in 2010
HW: I think my view is now becoming more common than when I first proposed it. 

READER: We stick to our targets as per our webpage INDIA 2010 :
a) US $ 1500.00 pto latest by End December 2010.
b) US $ 3000.00 pto latest by End December 2011.
c) US $ 6000.00 pto latest by End December 2012.
HW: While not my view, I believe a) $1500 is possible by or before 2012.