WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: DECEMBER 14, 2009
 FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. DECEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. SHOP TILL YOU DROP?

I don’t recommend such joyous abandon Winter 2010 unless/until stock bargains (10%-20%+) are offered.
 

TRADERS: OPTIONS EXPIRATION & FOMC.  We expect mostly lightly volume, while Fund managers think more about Q1 2010.
Should gold/silver be very weak, we might do a small contrarian buy this or next Monday/Tuesday. 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until 2011. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped US economy for the next two to seven years. 

FAIR VALUE DOW 8800 NAS 1788 SPX 898
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S1

 
KEY DATES:     DECEMBER 21, 25
DJIA:                 10400 PIVOT
SPX:                 1110 PIVOT
NASDAQ:          2000 PIVOT
XAU:                 176  PIVOT  170 SUPPORT?
FEB GOLD        1130 PIVOT S1 1100 SUPPORT?
MAR SILVER:   17.75 PIVOT
XOI:                  1040 SUPPORT?
JAN OIL:           74 PIVOT R1 68 R2 64 R3 58
US$                  75.50 PIVOT     

Market Marker Sentiment until March 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
7/21 PRE-ECLIPSE: DJIA   8915. SPX   954 & NASDAQ 1916
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 2 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS
Not surprisingly at the RBC Capital 5th annual silver conference last week, all the presenting companies were bullish on Silver in 2010.
I agree and recommend accumulation before Q2 2010 on weakness. 

3. Gold Isn't the Best Protection Against Inflation
HW: Yes, but it does offer protection! 

Record Volumes in Gold Market Indicate a Gold Top
Credit Suisse stated "Gold may decline to $900 to $1,000 an ounce by the end of the first quarter next year."
HW: That is where, and when, I would be MOST comfortable buying! 

HSBC Securities said last week Gold will average $1,150 an ounce next year, up from a previous estimate of $950. Their forecast is that gold will average $975 in 2011.
While this may happen, our valuations model suggest this is generous, given we value gold closer to their 2011 forecast than 2010.
November 16 we wrote: Depending on your technical time horizon, it is from 1050 (1080) to 1130 (1150), short term and 880 to 1220 intermediate term.
Our current intermediate term numbers are now $900 to $1240; Short term 1040 to 1140. 

4. "We're going to have a sustained level of volatility going forward.  Rallies and meltdowns will be part of the process."
Milton Balbuena, co-chief investment strategist, Contango Capital Advisors
HW: Traders rule! 

“Central banks and governments around the world are totally right in saying that the recovery is still very weak. Going into 2010 I would be extremely surprised if we do not see a serious hiccup somewhere.”
Philippe Gijsels, strategist, Fortis Global Markets
HW: If by a serious hiccup you mean some realization of economic reality, I agree. 

“If we’re going to profit still from some economic recovery, then you don’t want to be in the safe sectors, but in some of the more leveraged sectors.”
Florian Esterer, money manager, Swisscanto Asset Management
HW: And if you believe we are still far from an economic recovery, then safe sectors will out perform H1 2010. 

5. 10 REASONS THE EQUITY RALLY IS OVER 

14 Foreign Blue Chip Stocks with Dividends Greater than 5% 

Dubai May Be Least Of World's Debt Problems 

6. READER: Are we nibbling now with some first buys???
Price is within range, but time frame indicates can go lower!
"Potential First Buys:
Silver 17-17.50 OB before December 22
Gold 1080-1130 OB before December 15”
HW: I am trying for Or Better [Currently $17.20 & $1120], but up to you. If short, of course I would lock in or take profits.
Ideally, I would prefer to buy when Oil is $64 (or $58, or at least $68). 

READER: I never received a sell alert regarding gold and silver!  When was that sent?
HW: Last week in our newsletter I did write:
Short term Silver has first resistance at $20 and support at $16, while gold is trading within a $1020 to $1220 range.
The email midweek was a trading alert for Gold and Platinum subscribers. 

READER: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15639.html. Any comment?
HW: Not sure the crisis problem is here just yet, but obviously coming soon. 

READER: You say gold is a buy: 
From 14th of December to 21th of Dec. and Before the 15th of Dec. 
So I may ask:  Is the 14th a positive day for gold?
HW: We have the after market of 14th up.
However, I still don’t like the price of gold (too high). Still I would cover/hedge shorts on Monday if not already covered.
 

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