1. NOVEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. WHAT IS BAD NEWS?
US Unemployment Rate Hits 10.2%, Highest in 26 Years. This was bad news since it was both mistimed and inappropriate for a real recovery.
Could 10% Unemployment Signal A Buying Opportunity for Stocks? Markets on Friday acted that way later Friday. The lame talking head excuses were positive spins -some details had positive revisions and this would keep interest rates low which is “good for stocks”.  Will an 11%, 12% or even 15% rate be even better for stocks? 
Will markets also rise when interest rates rise as this is also “good for stocks” because it shows the economy is getting stronger? If so, what is bad news?

Have you heard the latest market rumor - THE GRINCH WILL STEAL XMAS? Frugality is a given this holiday season. Apparently, it seems Americans remain hesitant to spend money because of job losses, flat wages, tight credit and high debt. Imagine that! Expect subdued XMAS sales with at best meager profits.  This should help set up profitable shorting of US markets Q1 2010.

As an investor, I am unwilling to buy most stocks at today’s prices.
As a trader, I mostly prefer the risk/reward of shorting rallies end of day.
 

 
KEY DATES:     NOVEMBER 13, 16
DJIA:                10000/9800 PIVOTS
SPX:                 1060 PIVOT
NASDAQ:         2100 PIVOT
XAU:                 175 PIVOT 155 SUPPORT 185 RESISTANCE
DEC GOLD       1080 PIVOT
DEC SILVER:    17.50 PIVOT
XOI:                  1000 SUPPORT 1210 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL:          78 PIVOT 72 SUPPORT 83 RESISTANCE 
Market Marker Sentiment until March 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
7/21 PRE-ECLIPSE: DJIA   8915. SPX   954 & NASDAQ 1916
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 1 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. FOLLOW THE MONEY
Mega Sovereign Funds Intend To Invest In Agriculture. 

While nearly ALL microcaps are risky, and should employ only SPECULATIVE CAPITAL, some are more risky than others. Therefore we have added a risk scale as follows:
R1 Medium Microcap Risk  R2 High Risk  R3  Highest Risk to our Premium Subscriber post: S: 10 SPECULATIVE MICROCAPS (11/01/2009). 

3. Gold Glitters Because Central Bankers Don't  but  Silver Prices Are About to Fall 

Gold rallies to record above $1,100l

Gold as a currency (not as commodity) appropriately rose last week.
Silver, Oil and Copper appropriately dropped Friday as slow economic news is bad for the industrial metals and energy. 

Gold may be a buy now, but I am not buying. I would accumulate Silver stocks in November, but wait on gold with an ideal buy by December circa USD 78.  However, should gold remain above $1100 on this Friday close, we are likely to enter into some tightly stopped gold trading buys. 

4.  “I cannot remember stock market prices ever being so far removed from reflecting underlying economic and financial-system reality. Irrespective of near-term market gyrations, the long-term outlook remains extremely bearish for U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar, and extremely bullish for gold and silver.”
John Williams, editor, shadowstats.com
HW: I agree 100%. 

“The ability of the market to rally on the heels of the M&A activity and pretty solid earnings reports has been encouraging. The recent pullback certainly appears to have reversed itself.”
Eric Mintz, manager, Eagle Asset Management
HW: Has it? That remains to be seen. 

“People will, regardless of the number, call into question the durability of the recovery. It’s going to be a little bit challenging for the consumer this quarter.”
Michael Feroli, economist, JPMorgan Chase
HW: Only a bit?! 

5.Holding Cash? Might as Well Hold TIPS Instead

Eight Signs of Recession's End

Why dollar carry trade faces hidden dangers 

6. READER: Did you jump in today? We did hit 1080!
Was that your trigger or are you still waiting for a lower price for gold and silver for the longer term buy?
[Also post 2.15pm FOMC] Easy cheap money (as per the Fed statement) to continue, so probably up for the metals for a while.
HW: We did not buy.  However, from a systems viewpoint, that was the projected entry with a trading stop at even (1080) and a short term investing stop below 1060. 

READER: Silver & gold stocks are going up. Would you buy now or wait?
HW: Both. I would accumulate Silver stocks in November, but wait on gold with an ideal buy by December circa USD 78.  However, should gold remain above $1100 on this Friday close, we are likely to enter into some tightly stopped gold trading buys.                           

READER: will Gold pass $1200 until end of December 2009?
HW: While possible, that is not my view.