WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: NOVEMBER 2, 2009
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER


1. NOVEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

 

1. DOW 9500 BEFORE 10,000? IF SO, THEN 9000 BEFORE 10000?

Economic upturn not based in reality: Value investors should be in no rush to buy and hold at current market prices.

Stocks' Recent Volatility Has Familiar Feel. It is likely that DOW 9600 and SPX 1022 will hold before BEN Wednesday. That is less likely after Ben Wednesday; it remains our first downside target for November traders.

Short term, we are considering pre-XMAS trading buys are Dow 9000 to 9300.

Note: We are preparing an intraday WSNW subscriber’s alert in case Monday’s Full Moon or Neptune’s SD result in panic selling. 

GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Geithner Advocates Permanent Billionaire Bailout Society?

ASTRODATES
11/02 Full Moon 2.14 pm ET
11/04 Neptune SD

11/15 Saturn Square Pluto
11/16 Full Moon 2.14 pm ET
11/21 Sun enters Sagittarius 

TRADERS: Full Moon Monday could be fun.  Ditto for FOMC Wednesday.
Note: Traders Diapers warning for both days! :) 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement prices that you are willing to hold until 2011. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped US economy for the next two to seven years.
 

FAIR VALUE:   DOW 8615 NAS 1755 SPX 894
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L2/S3

 
KEY DATES:     NOVEMBER 2, 4
DJIA:                9747 PIVOT S1 9600 S2 9200 S3 9000
SPX:                 1042 PIVOT
NASDAQ:         2080 PIVOT
XAU:                 155PIVOT/SUPPORT?
DEC GOLD       1050 PIVOT 1020 SUPPORT 1080 RESISTANCE
DEC SILVER:    1650PIVOT 

XOI:                  1000 SUPPORT 11300 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL:          78 PIVOT R1 76 R2 74 R3 72 SUPPORT R1 80  R2 82 R3 84  

Market Marker Sentiment until March 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities
may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
7/21 PRE-ECLIPSE: DJIA   8915. SPX   954 & NASDAQ 1916
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 1 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. Outside of special situations (e.g. select silver and microcaps), we await a market pullback before committing fresh funds. 

3. Metals & Mining Analysts' Ratings & Estimates - Juniors

Metals & Mining Analysts' Ratings & Estimates - Seniors 

Technically, $1000 support for gold keeps increasing. But while increasing Q1 2010, given that my Fair Value range for Gold is currently still UNDER $1000, what can I say? We are still waiting to buy.
However, we are ready, willing and able to pounce should gold do a serious breakout of 1080. In case this occurs, we would buy quality micro and midcap precious metal stocks. 

Silver is currently worth less than $16. Be that as it may, we recommended buying Silver stocks on the dip last week (and in trading cases, selling quickly for a good profit).
Should Silver be very weak early in the week as we expect, we recommend a FIRST 2010 BUY of silver stocks.  We are not saying Silver won’t drop to $14.50 to $15 range. Hence, our second buy, may be higher or lower. We are saying that a number of Silver Stocks are close to trading near enough to value to make the risk/reward of a first 2010 buy and hold entry attractive as an intermediate term investment as well as a hedge. 
Wall Street, Next Week subscribers may wish to review our premium post: S:
MINING (11/02/2000. 

4.  “You have this skepticism in the equity market that is frankly irrational. Given that the third quarter was the tail end of the recession and earnings are this good tells you earnings are going to snap back much faster than people expect.”
Richard Campagna, chief executive officer, 300 North Capital
HW:  I don’t agree. 

"The earnings season marches on and Wall Street is merely yawning. Save for the blowout from Amazon, earnings that are beating estimates are not being met with the huzzahs of prior quarters, although if a company misses, they are severely punished."
Paul Nolte, director of investments, Hinsdale Associates
HW:  S&M investing- what a concept!
:) 

“If this one breaks, I think it’s going to be another bear rally where we’re going to go back to at least 1,000 or so. For me, I’m starting to lighten up on the equities in my account.”
Tom McNally, money manager, Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas
HW: I agree. 

5. How the 'lost decade' was won 

Rising market gives many a sinking feeling 
While market watchers are delighted that the S&P 500 has climbed 62% from its March 9 low — and is up more than 20% for the year — many find the gains difficult to understand or explain. 

12 Cheap Growth Companies 

6. READER: Any idea on the % of drop on gold stocks vs. gold price?
HW: I believe that Gold will probably drop somewhat less than gold stocks. 

READER: US Bonds - The next bubble to burst in USA . Noted if not by end December 2009 then latest by end March 2010, as per your analysis. Where do you see ^DJIA when this US Bond "bubble" bursts in USA ???
HW:
I don’t have a number calculated at this time. I am still working on 2009 numbers. This week we achieved our P1 Q4 2009 number of 9747. P2 of course is 9600.

 

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