1. SEPTEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. ASTRONUT
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS  

1. POST LABOR DAY MARKETS
When will the expected September/October correction take place?  Will it be just a modest 5-10% and a buying opportunity?
Fundamentally, we remain cautious and bearish aka realistic.  There is considerable risk to US & Chinese markets ahead especially September 10-17.
Until then, we are largely away from markets except for strategic shorting of unwarranted market rallies. 

FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY 101: SATURN OPPOSITE URANUS SEPTEMBER 15, 2009
Saturn (Reality/Fall) – Uranus (Unexpected/Sudden)
The last two times Saturn was in opposition to Uranus (November 4 & February 5), US markets fell close to 2000 points within the following month.
Play it again Sam? 

GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Les Leopold: Labor Day Special: Reward Real Work, Tax Fantasy Finance 

TRADERS: Intermediate Term in by September 10th? 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement price that you are willing to hold until 2011. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped US economy for the next two to eight years 

FAIR VALUE RANGE:   DOW 8250 NAS 1650 SPX 880
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S2 

KEY DATES:    SEPTEMBER 10, 16
DJIA:                 9500 PIVOT
SPX:                 1000 PIVOT
NASDAQ:       2025 PIVOT 1850 SUPPORT
XAU:                160 PIVOT 145 SUPPORT 168 RESISTANCE?
DEC GOLD:      1000 PIVOT
DEC SILVER:    16 PIVOT
XOI:                   1010 PIVOT
DEC OIL:          70 PIVOT 66 SUPPORT?  

Market Marker Sentiment until 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
7/21 PRE-ECLIPSE: DJIA   8915. SPX   954 & NASDAQ 1916
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 2 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 4 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. Another Natural Gas Bull Sticks His Neck Out  
Natural Gas to Heat Up, Crude to Climb Back Toward Triple Digits
HW: Natural Gas is under valued intermediate term, and should one be bullish on markets, this is one of the first sectors to consider to accumulating/buying for the intermediate/longer term.

Critical Care
HW: After Rodman & Renshaw next week, we plan to update our WSNW premium subscriber Health care post. 

$1,200 Gold in 2009
HW: Current Probability- 32%. 

While Silver is our current favorite natural resource, we believe it ran ahead of itself last week at $16.  While it can easily get to $18 or higher (and should later in the year), I am not comfortable with its current pricing.

Did Gold and Silver get a head start of our projected Fall rally, or it this test of $1000 and $16 resistances before a September test down? Fundamentally, with the exception of Natural Gas, commodities, especial Crude Oil, are well over valued on our short term supply/demand economic model. However, there remains considerable risk to the US$, and commodity buying is a preferred safety hedge.  Given we see a large remaining risk to an unmasking of the China Commodity Myth as well as OPEC next week (even if the former is postponed post PRC 60^th anniversary Oct 1 celebrations) we remain very cautious. 

Last week, we saw a break from the summer pattern of Gold down with markets down.  Gold and Silver may be trading more now on fear/US$ safe heaven.  Is it an early start on gold and silver seasonals?  We don’t know, but we are watching carefully.  However, we feel short term gold and silver are overvalued.  However, if gold does run ahead of our schedule, we do have our list of small caps that will profit. 

TRADING
We recommended taking the quick 15% profits on Gold and Silver stocks Thursday and Friday.  Unfortunately, on the physical commodity side, we lost money by being on the wrong end of the trade.
We also recommended an astute Shanghai cover at 2700 and then plan to short circa 3000 or timed mid next week.  We don’t agree that China’s dynamic economy will lead the global economy out of recession, certainly not short term, and I don’t believe intermediate term either! 

4. ASTRONUT
 Finland's passion for crazy contests
HW: Sporting a nice dividend, Nokia (NOK) also fundamentally seems poised to out perform after a long winter.  Being Finnish can’t hurt! :) 

5. "Signals are flashing that currencies, commodities and equities are all about to turn. There are too many signals across too many assets to ignore."
T.J. Marta, chief market strategist, Marta
HW: I agree. 

“On a short-term basis, momentum is driving the market higher. We’re looking at any pullback as an opportunity to buy. The crisis has been avoided and the stimulus money from the government is having some real positive effects.”
Mike Morcos, comanager, Old Second Wealth Management
HW: I wonder what you have been smoking? :) 

"While many investors are convinced the recession is over, real-time indicators show the economy has not yet bottomed, let alone started to recover.”
Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs
HW: The sad, but obvious economic truth. 

6.  What's the square root of a recovery? 

Forex Big Mac Attacks! 

Should You Be Worried About the Upcoming Correction?  

7. READER: I will throw my 2 cents in right now, from my 19 years experience, the week after Labor Day the players come back, the first 2-3 days will be strong, after that watch out!!!!!!!! The late end of the first week and into the second; during this period the reality will set in.
HW: We agree that reality will SOON set in. 

READER: I have noticed that there is 3 dates, which is 2008 Mar 19, 2008 Sep 17 and 2009 Mar 18.
1. All these 3 days, gold move more than $50 in that day
2. All these 3 days is Wed, and 3 days before options expiration 
From astro side, this is sun opposition cycle which is Pisces and Virgo. 
I am thinking that this Sep 16, Wed, could be a big down day which should more than $50.  Which mean if you buy put(only 3 days to expire, could be dirty cheap??), you will easily turn into 30-50 times if this pattern repeat.
HW: The risk reward is good, depending on how out of the money your options are. Usually best to not go for broke and be more conservative and make a reasonable bet.
Also gold’s vol is much greater these days, so even on a $50 move, you will probably make less than30-50X depending on the option. Still. If right, 10-20X is wunderbar. 

READER: Good call Henry on the U6-9 numbers... The new normal indeed... nice to hear from the "reality" camp.
HW: Unless things change, this reality will sadly be the basis of the economy for the next couple of years. 

READER: Is your fund based purely on the predictions of the stars?
HW: No. I also do technical AND fundamental analysis. Astrology gives helpful timing and location parameters.
This more often than not allows investors and traders TO MAKE MORE MONEY WITH LESS RISK. 

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