1. SEPTEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. CHINA BUBBLE
5. ASTRONUT
6. QUOTES
7. ON THE WEB
8. LETTERS 

1. What Can Stop This Rally? 
HW: My Answer is China and/or Astrology in September, although conceivably it can be postponed if the former is the trigger after October 1, 2009 – the 60th Anniversary PRC celebrations.
 

MARKET SENTIMENT CONTINUES TO BIFURCATE BETWEEN BULLISH AND BEARISHN CONVINCTIONS
“There's no mistake that the economy is on a recovery track from both the macro and micro perspective, and the market is in an upward trend."
Junichi Misawa, senior fund manager, STB Asset Management 

“Markets can and do separate from reality from time to time.  However, it is important to remember that there is no free lunch and serious indiscretions of the past don’t just evaporate because the financial news media has a bias.”
Garrett Jones, Special Alert August 29, 2009 

We remain in the latter camp. We expect to soon see markets ceasing to rally on so called “good news.”  Then with momentum weaker, reality should begin to sink in.
How Soon? This Week?  Next Week? September 10? September 16^th? September  22/23?
Enjoy your Summer Holidays. 

HYDE PARK CORNER: THE NEW NORMAL ECONOMY UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES
U6:       U6 Unemployment Rate 15.9% - Numbers Don't Lie
U7:       U6 + those who want part time work but can’t find it >20%
U8:       U7 + those who salary and benefits are not keeping up with inflation >35%
U9:       U8 + those who salary and benefits have not been keeping up with REAL inflation >65%
Bottom line: We will continue to see a declining standard of living for the US worker for the next 2 to 8 years! 

GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX:  Dismantle Bernanke's 'Happy Conspiracy' now
 

SEPTEMBER ASTRODATES
9/03 Full Moon 12.03 pm ET
9/07 Mercury RX
9/11 Pluto SD
9/15 Saturn opposite Uranus
9/18 New Moon 2.44 pm ET
9/22 Sun enters Libra 5.19 ET 

 
KEY DATES:    SEPTEMBER 4, 10, 11
DJIA:                9500 PIVOT S1 9400 S2 9100 S1 9000 R1 9600 R2 9800
SPX:                1025 PIVOT 998 SUPPORT 1042 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:         2000 PIVOT
XAU:                SUPPORT 138 R1 146 R2 155 R3 165 PIVOT
DEC GOLD:      930 PIVOT  R1 960  R2 970  R3 985
DEC SILVER:   14 PIVOT 13.50 SUPPORT P1 15 P2 15.25  P3 15.75
XOI:                 1000 PIVOT
DEC OIL:          70 PIVOT 68 SUPPORT 80 RESISTANCE  

Market Marker Sentiment until 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
7/21 PRE-ECLIPSE: DJIA   8915. SPX   954 & NASDAQ 1916
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 2 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. SURVIVE & PROSPER
“In the Tank Forever”: U.S. Consumers, Retailers
Most notably he likes the "extreme discounters" like Family Dollar, Dollar Tree … and 99 Cents Only Stores. And, in the department store sector, he says, Kohl's will "be the only winner" because of their cost controls.
HW: We agree that Dollar Tree [DLT], Family Dollar Stores [FDO], Walmart [WMT], CVS Caremark [CVS] will survive and prosper long term. 

3.  Dollar Update: Inflation Forces Are Brewing

Late September remains our target buy time for Silver and the precious metal sector.
Is gold’s intermediate term bottom in, or will China watchers this September refrain from over valuing commodities? Take a look at the price of Natural Gas (NG) (based largely on economic fundamentals and domestic supply/demand) vs. the price of Oil (global demand + value of US$).  September will NOT be dull! 

4. Forget About The Chinese Stock Market, The Whole Chinese Economy Is A Bubble Waiting To Burst 

Beijing's Role in Shanghai's Stocks 

“People are hanging their hopes on China pulling us out of a recession. China’s growth looks great, but things may be a bit overstated. There has been a lot more integration of global markets over the past couple of years. We’ve had a tremendous run and we’re due for this pullback.”
Brad Brooks, senior money manager, Value Line Securities
HW: Given the October 1 PRC 60^th anniversary, from the 27^th of September on, our shorts will have profit stops or have been covered.  In fact, we started last Friday as this Monday represents a new monthly cycle for China. It is mixed and "Janus" two faced. From our recommended entry at 3266, double lock ½ at 2700 and 3000 as we would not be surprised to see 2500 or 2200 before it over. Still, the risk/reward and probability has changed for this trade which has now good profit. 

5.  “There are good reasons to be suspicious about the strength of the recovery. We could pull back a bunch after the kind of rally we had.”
Ralph Shive, manager, Wasatch-1st Source Income Equity Fund
HW: A Big bunch. 

 “The government is building huge deficits, printing money and keeping a zero-interest-rate policy, which is leading to a big inflation risk in the years ahead.”
James Shelton, chief investment officer, Kanaly Trust
HW: You betcha!  Got gold?  Owning TIPS as an inflation hedge is OK up to 104, there after, owning hard assets is strongly preferred. 

“The market is no longer cheap. The question is whether the rally is justified by the pick-up in economic data and earnings.”
Nader Naeimi, strategist, AMP Capital Investors
HW: Hell no! 

6. Whose market is it, anyway?

Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

HOW GOLDMAN SACHS' PROBLEMS ARE HURTING YOU

7. READER: One of your readers is mentioning that the next melt-down will come in the year 2012? 
I expect ^DJIA and global equities to correct in October-November 2009. Probability is more for October 2009 due to Banking Crisis in China. Maybe I am wrong on my prediction this time? 
Short term ^DJIA should hold 9500 in September 2009.
HW: My forecast is for midSeptember (~9/10). I continue to expect to see markets well below 9000 before 9/22.  Interestingly enough, however, my largest bet is with October options.  So if you are right on your timing and I am not, I may still make some money, although not as much if in September.
Note: Two arguments that support your position are 1) Too many people are calling for a September correction and 2) The October 1 60^th anniversary of China. 

READER: If I were a betting man, I would say that just prior to, at, or slightly after mercury goes retrograde, we will see markets go down, gold and silver down etc.  Thus, a reversal of the existing trend for about three weeks. The trend and the existing viewpoint usually reverse around that time.
HW: Even though I am a betting man, I won’t take that bet!
PS Note Mercury goes Retrograde on September 7 to 29^th.

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