1. JULY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS

1. TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE July 22, 2009
Stocks rose around the world and bonds initially fueled by the fanciful speculation that the spectacular earnings from Goldman Sachs Group suggest that the worst of the financial crisis is over.
Reality: The worst MAY be over for GS but not for Main Street!

 Coming up this week is the longest total solar eclipse of the 21^st century. This corresponds with Ben Speaking and the dissolving of the Japanese lower house of parliament, both potentially market moving events. Astrological students will note the visual path of this eclipse runs over China and India.  It is China that we believe will surprise on the downside those who believe China will lead the world out of recession. Not this time.  Do not delay booking your profits here before it is too late!
PS If your investing mandate actions require more justification than sound astrological advice, please read the following article from the current issue of Institutional Investor:

China Recovery Doesn’t Add Up
“The bullish group-think on China is just as vulnerable to massive disappointment as any other extreme of bubble nonsense I’ve seen over the last two decades.”
 

GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Economist's View: Fed Watch: FOMC Forecasts - Reality or Fantasy?
“Remember to interpret forecasts of potential GDP in the context of diminished expectations. The wide range of projections speaks to an interesting spectrum of Fed speak in upcoming months. The game will be to track the data, being wary not to read to much into a short-lived bounce off the bottom. I side with the low end of the FOMC forecasts; call me a pessimist.” 

TRADERS: Over the next couple of weeks, the stock market will trade sideways at best. Earnings to decide stocks' fate. As of late last week, we began shorting markets.
Except possibly for Tuesday when Ben speaks with its accompanying risk of a market rally if investors believe the Fed has a realistic exit plan, we are comfortable with this view. 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement price that you are willing to hold until 2011. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of an L (U?) shaped US economy for the next two to eight years.
FAIR VALUE RANGE:    DOW 8000-8200 NAS 1655-1700 SPX 860-870
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S2 

KEY DATES:    JULY 21, 22
DJIA:                8800 PIVOT 8500 SUPPORT 9000 RESISTANCE
SPX:                  940 PIVOT
NASDAQ:        1880  PIVOT
XAU:                145 PIVOT  S1 138 S2 135  S3 125
AUGUST GOLD:910 SUPPORT  950 RESISTANCE
SEPT SILVER:  13.50 PIVOT 12.80 SUPPORT 
XOI:                  850 SUPPORT  920 PIVOT
DEC OIL:           64 PIVOT 61 SUPPORT 76 RESISTANCE  

The new Market Marker Sentiment has Less Volatility and Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays. The US$ doesn't collapse and Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.

2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 2 UV; 9 offer 4%+ Dividends 4 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.  We see little reason to buy, and more than one reason to sell, or slowly short the current market rally.
As for emerging markets and Chindia, our advice is to sell FAST before it is too late. 

Note: During and after earning season we will be updating some of our premium subscriber posts. 

3.  ANALYSIS-Gold/silver ratio soars but bearish signal unclear. 

We updated our views of Gold and Silver at our Summer Triple Gold Conference at the Princeton Club in New York.
WSNW subscribers can download an outline of my presentation at: July 14 2009 GOLD POWERPOINT PRESENTATION. 

4. "We had an explosive week on the back of strong earnings and some decent economic reports. The great unknown is what happens next, because some companies see better days ahead for their business and others don't."
Joe Battipaglia, market strategist, Stifel Nicolaus
HW: This suggests a range bound market to me. 

 “The housing starts number was frankly great. You are starting to see evidence that the worst of the recession is over.”

Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist, Confluence Investment

HW: Not really.  Within a few months the reality that the “Great Recession” is NOT a made for TV movie but will last for years will dawn. 

“The recovery is gaining traction. Even if we don’t see spectacular growth, a stabilization should be enough to support a market rally.”
Nader Naeimi, strategist, AMP Capital Investors
HW: That is the 64K question:  Is it enough, and if so, how high? 8800?  9100? 9600? 

5. Markets remain rocky; Asia looks appealing
Investors should prepare for a roller-coaster ride for the rest of the year as equity markets struggle to make headway. 

Economist Nouriel Roubini remains Dr. Gloom 

Emerging Markets Most Expensive Since '07 When Shares Subsequently Plunged 

6.  READER:
1. Will you let us know when to buy into each: Gold, Energy, Natural Resources....ETF's and an ETN, any feelings about those?
2. I know you said waiting a little longer for gold and silver, but what about Energy and Natural Resources? and are your recommendations for Energy and Natural Resources on your site?
HW: 1. I prefer EFT to ETN as the latter carries the solvency risk of the issuing institution.

2. See http://www.afund.comafundpremium.html  for a selection of recommended energy and mining stocks.
As for timing, we give our intermediate term views of when to enter and exit on an investing basis.  The exact days and time entries are available to gold, platinum and diamond subscribers.
Just now we are on Summer holidays as far as buying most natural resource stocks are concerned but plan to accumulate late summer. 

READER: I see you're comparatively bullish (compared to Dr Doom and his team, at least).
HW: Don't the Mayans say we have at least until 2012?!

READER: Don't know about the Mayans, but did you note that the Patriarch of the Ethiopian Church (Asum) back-tracked on showing us the Ark of the Covenant which, he says, is in his possession?  That should give us some more time on earth ;-) .
HW: Excellent, now I may not have to worry as much about these things

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