1. MAY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS   

Astrologically, Jupiter (Optimism) conjunct (in the face of) Neptune (Uncertainty) begins in May.
Is the bad news so well known that is doesn’t really matter anymore unless truly shocking or surprising? If so, markets can continue to rally, but I personally could not sleep soundly at night without market hedges.  I don’t believe it is for nothing that Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since 2007. Do you? 

We issued a WSNW Trading alert April 30: Markets are now above 8300.
“If you are buying and holding you believe they are going to 9000 on ignoring continuing bad news. That is certain possible.  Still, the risk/reward to selling or stop losing here is quite favorable either for short term trades into early May or an very start to start to SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY.
Note there are indicators markets can be higher later next month, but WE DO NOT BELIEVE MARKETS WILL HIGHER IN 3 MONTHS!!!!” 

“THINGS WILL GET LESS BAD- THE WORST IS BEHIND US.” IS THIS A REALISTIC VIEW?
While our April 30 WSNW Alert delivered a nice 200 point Dow profit within 24 hours, we also consider this a partial investing sell. 
The reality is that most companies will be reporting lower sales and fewer profits next quarter.  However should enough investors believe the worst is behind, March 9 was the bottom, and that things will get less bad each quarter, they may continue to Buy rather than Sell.  But if the economic reality is continued weakness the next 3-6 months and then flat lines into 2010, is that sufficient reason for a continuing Bear Market rally?
I report; you decide ;)
 

 
KEY DATES:    MAY 7, 8
DJIA:                8300 PIVOT
SPX:                880 PIVOT
NASDAQ:        1700 PIVOT
XAU:                122 PIVOT114 SUPPORT 136 RESISTANCE
JUNE GOLD:    888 PIVOT 860 SUPPORT 960 RESISTANCE
MAY SILVER:   12.50
XOI:                  900 PIVOT 920 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL:          59 PIVOT 56 SUPPORT 62 RESISTANCE  

The current Market Marker Sentiment is Some worry, then bargain hunting, then return to worry.
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       10 ~ FV 4 UV; 9 offer 4%+ Dividends 5 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. “Our 12 Stocks for Bad Times portfolio  is a defensive, lower risk value oriented portfolio that allows one to sleep better at night even if the "recovery" takes time and is not on "TV" time.
Gold, entertainment, consumer staples often outperform in bad times. Also considered traditional safe havens in times of uncertainty are utilities and property trusts. However, deregulation and the ongoing real estate crisis have made them less attractive in H1 2009, but we will believe will soon offer real, long term value.
Additionally, we have one education company (one activity people choose when they are out of work), one liquor company (another "classic" response to recession") balanced by one SRI component to feel good about, even if it won't make a ton of money.  I have also included one water company, one dividend paying conservative REIT along with classic Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) as "there will always be boo boos".

Please note, I am currently in no rush to buy any of our stocks until their stock prices are below our given value pricing. 

The stocks listed below are to be watched and accumulated on weakness…. 

WSNW Subscribers can read more at S: UNCERTAIN TIME STOCKS (5//2009) 

3. Gold May Be `Off to the Races' If Price Exceeds $950: Technical Analysis
HW: $960. 

Silver/Gold Ratio Out of Whack
HW: We have only bought a smidgen of silver and remain ready to pull the trigger, but the right time still does not yet seem to be here (yet). 

4. “It’s shockingly bad. People still aren’t pessimistic enough. This casts shadows over any green shoots of recovery. This recession will be more prolonged than people expect.”
Alan Clarke, economist, BNP Paribas
HW:  We agree. 

“Traders are looking at poor statistics and looking at them as bullish because they are better than a month ago. These moves are unsustainable because the fundamentals of the market are poor.”
Gene McGillian, analyst, Tradition Energy
HW:  We agree. 

“There are buyers out there, whether individuals or institutions. “Somebody’s obviously got guts or liquidity.”
 Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst, Standard and Poor’s
HW: Or poor judgment!

5.  Optimism and the world economy | A glimmer of hope?

The worst thing for the world economy would be to assume the worst is over 

Insiders Unloading Shares Fastest Since 2007 Stock Peak as S&P 500 Surges 

Playing the Energy Sector in '09 

6. READER: Have I missed the window to buy SSRI and other precious metal stocks? I want to make a big investment. What about JNJ?
HW: Since we believe markets are going DOWN over the next week or so, you have not missed out on JNJ. Not sure about SSRI but certainly NOT too early for silver microcaps like AXU under 1.25.
As for gold, I am still waiting another week or two to see if 900 holds as support or whether it’s another 860 test. 
Note: $900 did not hold and so far $880 has again held for a second time. 

READER: My view on ^DJI is first 9000 and then 6470 to 6000.  
For this - ^DJI has a major hurdle to cross at 8270. This can happen in May 2009 and then ^DJI can zoom to 9000 level in June 2009.
HW:  While there is some astrological support for your view, I am not so sure.  If investors believe the worst is behind us, they will rally markets into the summer and then be freaked out by reality with the next batch of earnings reports. How long will it go and how high?
I don’t know, but I do agree that 8270 is a very key intermediate term market pivot!