WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: APRIL 27, 2009
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

 
1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
   

1. BANKING, HOUSING, JOBS PART II 

I believe the May 4th Bank stress test results will suffer from “grade inflation.”
Real improvement by this May? Not my view! 
As a (cosmic) Value investor, I really don’t want to be long the stock market until at least Dow 7600and/or 7500, and ideally when 7100 is first again tested.
 

FACTOID: Fitch: U.S. House Prices to Drop Another 12.5% Before Hitting Bottom.
U.S. home prices will fall an additional 12.5% from 2008's year end values before exhibiting more stability in late 2010, according to Fitch Ratings.
This forecast reflects a reversion to early 2002's prices. Currently, prices are hovering around levels seen in mid 2003.
Note: Those days’ markets were hovering around Dow 10,000 and Nasdaq 2000K- Déjà vu coming?

 

ASTRODATES
5/7 Mercury SR
5/9 Full Moon
5/16 Saturn SD
5/20 Sun enters Gemini

5/27 Jupiter conjunct Neptune
5/29 Neptune SR
5/30 New Moon

 

TRADERS: THESE ARE VERY DIFFICULT MARKETS- STAY CAUTIOUS. 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement price that you are willing to hold until 2010-2011. 
Buy 7100 Accumulate stocks Dow 7500 Distribute 7900. Sell 8250
 

FAIR VALUE RANGE:    DOW 7900-8200 NAS 1520-1530 SPX 825-860
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S1.

KEY DATES:    APRIL 29
DJIA:                7216 PIVOT SUPPORT 6600 RESISTANCE 7600
SPX:                740 SUPPORT? 810 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:        1380 SUPPORT 1500 RESISTANCE
XAU:                135 PIVOT120 SUPPORT 145 RESISTANCE
JUNE GOLD:     940 PIVOT 900 SUPPORT 980
MAY SILVER:   13.50 PIVOT 12.50 SUPPORT  R1 13.80  R2 14  R3 14.50

XOI:                  820 PIVOT 900 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL:          60 PIVOT 55 SUPPORT 67 RESISTANCE  

The current Market Marker Sentiment is Some worry, then bargain hunting, then return to worry.
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       12 ~ FV 6 UV; 13 offer 4%+ Dividends 9 offer 5%+ Dividends.

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
 

2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS
There was a highly subdued atmosphere at this year’s IPAA Oil and Gas conference as expected. Natural gas is expected to bottom over the next few months as drill rig counts are way down.
I was impressed by two small caps: Core Laboratories (CLB), a quality oil services play, and
Contango (MCF), a no debt E&P.  Additional companies that we liked and are watching that presented there include::  Range Resources (RRC), primarily a US natural gas play, and Whiting Petroleum (WLL) and :Ultra Petroleum (UPL).
We plan to use current Oil weakness into the end of April to accumulate energy stocks.
WSNW Note:  We have several changes to our WSNW premium post. ENERGY (4/23/2009).
 

3.  Gold is now trading at our non-crisis Fair Value of $908. 
Silver, which is under increasingly positive influences, is currently our favorite commodity to overweight as we get closer to summer. 

4. "This is a very high-risk environment to be short. Fund Short squeezes can be dramatic, and a lot of money can be lost."
Doug Noland, senior portfolio manager, Prudent Bear
HW: Yes, but a lot of money can be lost being long as well!
 

“We believe an historic drop in stock prices is inevitable. We expect both falling inflation and a huge sell- off of equities as first-quarter earnings reports hit the wires to keep bond prices rising.”
Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist, High Frequency Economics
HW: Will bonds price keep rising? Initially it is probable, but they may not thereafter. 

“We’re finding a bottom in gold and a top in stock markets.”
Mario Innecco, futures broker, MF Global
HW:  We also believe gold is closer to its bottom than it top. 

5. Treasury 10-Year Yield Reaches Highest Level Since Fed Announced Buybacks 

Financial markets face a lost generation of investors
Just as the Great Depression scared an entire generation away from the stock market, recent events may drive today's investors to the sidelines — forever. 

Treasury-Bubble Trouble?
Investors should brace for losses on Treasury bonds, but not just yet.
 

6. READER: if investing in OIL, do we buy now? or end or month? does it matter?
HW:
I think it matters, as we are waiting until next week.. Why buy now IF I believe oil is dropping at least until the end of the month? 

READER: I would like to ask your advice between Nova Gold and AXU your favourite silver stock in your opinion which one has the most potential to gain over the coming months.
HW: I prefer AXU and Silver.

 

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