1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS   

NO. Despite what one often hears in the business press, the weakness in consumer spending is JUST beginning!  The recent bear market rally on “signs” the US recession is easing is based on hope and fantasy, NOT reality. 

"We’re starting to see what we’ve been asking for, signs that the financials are getting back on their feet, and that maybe there’s a bottom in the housing market."
Anthony Conroy, head trader, BNY ConvergEx
HW: Dream on! 

“Is the worst of the U.S. banking crisis behind us or is the worst yet to come? I would say there is clearly more pain ahead and the eventual recovery will be uneven into 2010.”
Chairman Steve Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia
HW: I agree “The recovery will be anemic, tentative and very fragile at best."

Wall St Week Ahead: Earnings deluge may swamp rally
"8,300 on the Dow suggests to me we've had such a nice run, the market is going to, at minimum, trade sideways for a while, if not undergo a more pronounced pullback next week after the expirations run its course."
Todd Clark, managing director of stock trading, Nollenberger Capital Partners
HW: We agree and we currently recommend investors Distribute/Sell/Write May Calls on most stocks.

KEY DATES:     APRIL 20/21
DJIA:                8000 PIVOT
SPX:                 840 SUPPORT 888 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:         1520 FAIR VALUE
XAU:                 115 PIVOT?
JUNE GOLD:     875 PIVOT S1 860 S2 850 S3 849
MAY SILVER:   12 PIVOT
XOI:                  S1 865 S2 840 S3 790
DEC OIL:          60 PIVOT 56 SUPPORT 65 RESISTANCE  

The current Market Marker Sentiment is “Some worry, then bargain hunting, then return to worry.”
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                        8 ~ FV 3 UV; 8 offer 4%+ Dividends 7 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. Thursday APRIL 16 WSNW PREMIUM ALERT: 5%+ Oil correction coming by the end of the month.
“For a number of fundamental, technical and cyclic reasons we believe Oil is short term ready for a correction.  We expect this to begin by next week and may happen beforehand.  We plan to enter 1/3 before MOC today, 1/3 Friday and should Monday be in profit, add 1/3.  We would take one half profits on Wednesday and the other ½ at the end of the month.

First targets on oil are $47-$48 and XOI 840.  Whether we go lower, we will have a better sense next week.
While we will be trading short, as investors we PLAN TO USE THIS TIME TO ACCUMULATE MORE OIL STOCKS as we are intermediate/long term energy bulls. A number of producers are quite profitable and undervalued.
Those with long Oil stock positions can hedge with an XOI short or simply write May slightly in the money calls.”
Note: We have recommending locking in profits on many of our Oil profits e.g. close trailing stops or Write May Calls on VLO and SE. 

3. Will Silver Start to Outperform Gold?
HW: Coming soon. 

We will soon be in accumulation mode in both Silver and Gold: Be prepared.
We continue to value Gold at $908. Technical Tests of $860 and the long awaited $850 long term support may come as early as Monday.
Silver under $12 is undervalued, and tests of $11.75 and $11.45 are not unwelcome. We may be doing our first buys as early as the end of this week there and circa $840 gold.
If so, as usual, such First buys are likely to be early, and NOT necessarily the bottom of the current PM correction move. 

4.  “Buying stocks is like crossing Fifth Avenue when the light is red, you might make it, but the odds are not with you.”

Laszlo Birinyi, president, Birinyi Associates

HW: Right on!

"We desperately need to see housing prices stabilize to put in a definitive bottom [in the stock market]. Looking ahead, we believe that the bottom in housing is still several quarters away and there is at least another 15 percent downside potential."

David Rosenberg, North American economist, Merrill Lynch

HW: Party popper! 

“This year is going to be pretty bloody for earnings, if not into next year as well."
Hugh Young, managing director, Aberdeen Asset Management
HW:  You bechta! 

5.  Bernanke Bet on Keynes Has Meltzer Seeing 1970s-Style Inflation

Bloom or bust?

After months of gloom, some say the signs of economic revival are in full bloom. 

Don't get your hopes up; it's a dead-cat bounce 

6. READER: You said a major reason for a downswing in the market will be the revenue IRS have collected by 15th of April. 
When will the revenue be known to the people, what date and time?
HW: Sometime soon, but the exact date and time I don’t know.

READER: By the way:  Gibbons just like you thinks the market will fall this week. He has not said that before.
HW: GMTA :) 

READER: Is Q2 the best period of gold in 2009?
HW: It should be one of the three best quarters in 2009. 

READER: If you have the time can you please let me know your "top three picks" from the global Gold miners and producers as under? 
1. AAUK
2. AU
3. ABX
4. GG
5. GFI
6. NEM 
I do not know if you fancy RANDGOLD [GOLD] of South Africa?  
I am planning to buy top three stocks from the above short list this week [4/13-17] for investment for self and clients for the year 2011. My target price for Gold for December 2011 is US $ 3000.00 pto).
HW: Personally I prefer midcaps and small caps as they offer a far better Risk/Reward under such a scenario. Additionally, I am inclined to wait another week before buying.
That being said I would probably choose AAUK, ABX and GG.
READER: Very close to my top three picks - NEM, ABX and GG. 

READER: Say, when’s this stupid bear market rally going to end??
HW: Monday? I believe before the end of May is a “reasonable” bet.