1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 
 

Until the bleeding has stopping in ALL three categories, we will not see the bottom of the US economy. 

• How much of bank profits is due to fantasy accounting? I fear far too much.
• Has the Bleeding of jobs stopped? No.
• Is the bottom in the Real Estate market? No. 

Will these bottom by October?  If not, the current bear stock market rally will not last and is a classic trap.  Last week’s buying ignored the LARGER PICTURE.
This earning season and next should evaporate the current euphoria.  Once the fundamental economy comes back into focus, investors will realize that the economy is in “dire straits.”
NEXT UP: US INCOME TAX SHORTFALL.
 

MARKET FORECAST:
MORE SIDEWAYS MARKETS WITH LOWER/HIGHER TRADING RANGES. 

RECOMMENDATION:
GIVEN WE ARE AT THE TOP OF THE CURRENT TRADING RANGE, PROTECT SHORT TERM PROFITS: SELL, PROFIT STOP OR WRITE CALLS. 

Moody's cuts Berkshire Hathaway's Aaa rating

The only remaining AAA-rated U.S. companies are, ExxonMobil (XOM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Microsoft (MSFT), Pfizer (PFE), and Automatic Data Processing (ADP).

PFE is on watch to be downgraded next.  However for all of 2009 at least, we believe the credit ratings of XOM, JNJ and ADP are safe.

 
KEY DATES:    APRIL 14, 16, 17
DJIA:                8000 PIVOT SUPPORT 7600 RESISTANCE 8200
SPX:                840 PIVOT 860 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:        1650 PIVOT
XAU:                120 PIVOT 115 SUPPORT R1 125  R2 130  R3 145
JUNE GOLD:     880 PIVOT
MAY SILVER:   12 PIVOT 11.80 SUPPORT  R1 12.50  R2 12.80  R3 13
XOI:                  820 PIVOT 900 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL:          56 PIVOT 50 SUPPORT 65 RESISTANCE  

The current Market Marker Sentiment is Some worry, then bargain hunting, then return to worry.
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       12 ~ FV 6 UV; 13 offer 4%+ Dividends 9 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. Investing in a Constant

The key issue for dividend stocks is future earnings and the reliability of future dividend payouts.  Many are sporting well over 5% and offer among the best capital appreciation as well.  We are currently more aggressive in our picks here than usual, but still AVOIDING financial stocks. For 12 current AFUND potential dividend choices, WSNW subscribers can visit our recently updated premium subscriber post:  S: DIVIDEND & INCOME. 

3. Will $875 Gold weekly support hold?  If so, we will be doing our first precious metal buys within 10 days.  If not, we will be doing our first precious metal buys within 30 days! 

4.  “There are signs of improvement. We’ll be ready to cut our stance again as this is likely to be a bear- market rally, but valuations are very low."
Ronald Stoferle, international equities analyst, Erste Group
HW: The time to cut is THIS week. 

“Risk is definitely coming back into equities.  We think equities generally are cheap. As a long-term view, the market is bottoming it.”

David Hussey, London-based head of European equities, MFC Global Investment

HW:  Yes. 

“This is a throwaway quarter -- everyone expects it to be bad.  People will be looking forward to the commentary for guidance. It’s all about the outlook.”
Richard Vanden Boogard, investment manager, Victory Capital
HW:  While earnings can stabilize, for most companies they won’t increase substantially for some time. 

5. S&P 500 Can't See Enough Money-Making in Final Quarter to Keep Rally Alive
HW: Neither can we! 

Faber Says Stocks May Drop Up to 10% in `Correction' Before Further Rally 

Market bear Roubini sticks to dour forecasts
HW: Here is more reality than most of the fantasy musings on business TV. 

6.  READER:  Precious Metals: With due respect. Instead of putting money in mid-caps viz AEM, VIA-T and ACU - I would recommend large blue chips viz AAUKD, AU, ABX, GG, GFI and NEM. This is only my view point. I have nothing against your picks. I prefer champion stocks in their line of business rather than tier-II or tier-III.
HW:  If/when gold bases over $1000, then Tier II and III will strongly out perform.  If gold stays in an average range of $900-1000, I believe the results will be similar. 

READER: Gold has been gaping lower to 870 area. Is this the last time in 2009 below 900?
HW: I don’t know. I do believe that within a week or two it MAY be the last time in Q2 2009!