NEW WSNW FEATURE: Fair Value 8025 NAS 1490 SPX 825
We are adding a new premium weekly feature: listing our weekly Fair Values.  As Cosmic Value investors, we naturally wish to buy and hold Under Valued stocks at 10-20% discount and sell/distribute/stop when overvalued.
Note: These numbers are calculated by combining several models WHICH ARE AT HISTORIC EXTREMES e.g.  A bond/interest model which is about 10% higher and current and future earnings model which is 8% lower!  This divergence is one of the major reasons for the extreme market volatility and risk in current markets.

ASTRODATES
4/04 Pluto SR
4/08 FULL MOON 10.56 am ET
4/17 VENUS SD
4/19 SUN enters Taurus
4/24 NEW MOOON 11.23 pm ET
 

TRADERS: THESE ARE VERY DIFFICULT MARKETS- REMAIN CAUTIOUS.
Buy/Accumulate stocks Dow 7240 OB. 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement price that you are willing to hold until 2010-2011. 

FAIR VALUE: DOW 8025 NAS 1490 SPX 825 
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S2.
 

KEY DATES:    ALL WEEK!
DJIA:                 7600 PIVOT 7200 SUPPORT 8000 RESISTANCE
SPX:                   805 PIVOT R1 825 R2 830 R3 850
NASDAQ:         1550 PIVOT
XAU:                 125 PIVOT R1 115 SUPPORT 145 RESISTANCE
JUNE GOLD:     925 PIVOT S1 900 SUPPORT 960 RESISTANCE
MAY SILVER:   13.25 PIVOT $12.50 SUPPORT $14 RESISTANCE
XOI:                    840 SUPPORT 940 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL:            60 PIVOT $56 SUPPORT $66 RESISTANCE  

The current Market Marker Sentiment is: Some worry, then bargain hunting, then return to worry.
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       47 ~ FV 3 UV; 10 offer 4%+ Dividends 8 offer 5%+ Dividends.

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS
At the Sidoti New York Institutional Forum last week we found three companies of interest. We especially like All sport NO DEBT! 
Our favorite was Mine Safety Appliances (MSA) which may be appropriate for many conservative core long term portfolios. However, given this was just on first impression and before proper due diligence, and the Sidotti analyst is less bullish (see below), as always, Buyer Beware.
I also liked and believe worth researching are American Ecology (ECOL) and Iris International (IRIS).
Latest Sidoti Ratings are: Hold MSA Target 18, BUY ECOL Target 23 and IRIS Target 14. 

U.S. credit card defaults rose in February to their highest level in at least 20 years, with losses particularly severe at American Express (AXP) and Citigroup (C).
We rate C as AVOID, and we just lowered our rating for AXP at $15 from Modest Market Under Perform to Under Perform. 

3. Gold Price Seasonal Trend Pattern Has Changed! 
Gold bugs are hoping to find a solid floor circa $900, but this has yet to be proven.
While later in Q2, we will be quite bullish on the precious metals and have raised our Fair Value of Gold from $895 to $908, we remain cautious for H1 April.
 

4. “When you’re buying equities, you’re buying a stream of earnings and current earnings are in freefall. We haven’t hit bottom yet.”

Douglas Cliggott, manager, Long/Short Sector Fund

HW: I agree.

 

“Extreme pessimism about the global economy is receding, triggering a stock rally. This is making investors more active so they feel like buying riskier assets.”
Yousuke Hosokawa, senior currency dealer, Chuo Mitsui Trust
HW: Yes but views can change on a dime and there is a high probability just now for a quick shift by/before April 15^th. 

 “On one hand we have economic news that’s reassuring and the stabilization of the financial system, on the other hand, the context remains difficult for companies. The discourse of some companies has been positive, but the crisis isn’t over. We will have bad earnings surprises.”
Julien Quistrebert, comanager KBL Richelieu Gestion
HW: That is great problem in investing today: Extreme short term risk coupled with very attractive long term valuation! 

4. Jim Rogers Doesn't Mince Words About the Crisis

 

Canada envy, amid a global meltdown

 

Rise in Canadian dollar may be shortlived in the near term 

6.  READER: I would like to ask you what effects you think the triple combust on March 30th might have on the market, I am feeling that this might mark a pullback on this date, what do you think?
HW: That is a reasonable assumption as there are also many terrestrial events that are somewhat bearish for the markets coming up around then. But it could begin a day or two later, or conversely, be delayed slighted due to Thursday’s G20 meeting. 

READER: PLLL - Not bad: 39.25% rise in one day! Great Job! What was the news that caused such a dramatic rise?
HW: I don’t know. Perhaps a  reader of WSNW? :) 

READER: With U.S. dollar declines, what's your view on investing in China and Russia now?
HW: I would do neither.
READER: Could you explain why?  The market seems pleased with China's stimulus package so far.
HW: Because I believe that they will be in much trouble later this year, both for economic and astrological (July 22 Eclipse reasons).
PS The market is also impressed with what we have been doing, but US markets are not yet stable, and may be ready to correct as early as next week..

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